BIG BLUE FANS FOR
FOOTBALL
2014
GATEWAY TO THE 2012 SEC FOOTBALL SEASON
University Of Kentucky Starts 5-1; Can It Finish 1-5?
A Tale Of Two Half Seasons
In recent years (indeed the majority of years in the life of the UK football program), the jury has been able to return its verdict on the current football team and season before the Big Blue Madness basketball event. Not so in 2014 thanks to an unexpected 5-1 start. Add to this record the idea that the sole loss was a 3 OT disappointment in The Swamp that many observers say today the Cats would have, could have, should have won but for a mishandled interception late in the game.
Five wins in six games when the last two editions of the Wildcats could only manage 4 wins in 24 games is the undeniable measure of the progress that Coach Stoops and his staff has made in less than two years since his hiring. Prior to the season, many fans, including this fan, expressed the view that 4 wins for the season would show that progress, and 5 wins could be within reach. However, this 5-1 start puts the Cats on the doorsteps of bowl eligibility, a measuring stick that in August any reasonable fan would have admitted would be the gold standard of progress measuring sticks in 2014.
5-1! With the current bowl alignments, the pundits seem clear that any SEC team reaching 6 wins on the season will not be just bowl eligible, but will play a 13th game in 2014. So, the questions now becomes where will this UK football team find its 6th win, and dreaming further, can it get a 7th win this season.
An examination of the UK football schedule for 2014 reveals the daunting task that remains. As of October 14, 2014, none of UK's first 6 opponents are ranked or even receiving votes in the two major wire service polls, yet five of the six remaining opponents are either ranked or receiving votes in at least one of these polls. For the record, the Cats are also receiving votes in both of these polls as of this writing. Furthermore, only 2 of the first 6 opponents have a stronger Sagarin rating than the Cats, but all six of the remaining opponents are rated stronger than the Cats at this stage of the 2014 season. My NGE Power ratings show only one of the first 6 opponents with a stronger Adjusted NGE at the season mid-point, but all five of the six remaining foes have higher Adjusted NGE values.
It is a tale of two half seasons. The Cats started 5-1, can it finish 1-5 (or better) and continue its season with a bowl game? The remaining opponents, in order of appearance, with their Adjusted NGE Power ratings are:
• At LSU 89.03
• Mississippi State 98.29
• At Missouri 76.49
• Georgia 99.09
• At Tennessee 81.47
• At Louisville 89.34
KENTUCKY 78.79
The first six games only included one game outside the friendly confines of Commonwealth Stadium while the final six games will call upon the Cats to travel four times. The average power rating of the first six opponents is 62.66 while the average power rating of the final six is 89.95.
Based on this analysis, the Cats' best opportunity to capture its 6th win will occur on November 1, when it travels to Columbia, Missouri to face last year's Eastern Division champion. Few observers argue today that this Missouri team is anything more than a shadow of that Missouri team, and most observers agree that this UK team has achieved more than Missouri during the first half of the season. However, the power rating difference between them today is very small (about 2 1/2 points) and the proverbial home field advantage will erase that statistical difference sufficiently to give the Tigers a pre-game advantage of about 1 point, if the game were scheduled for tomorrow. Make no mistake, the Cats and the Tigers each play two more games before they meet on the field, so these power ratings will shift for each of the teams prior to game week.
Nevertheless, the fact that this game will provide the Cats with their best opportunity in the last half to secure that 6th win will not change. The Cats have played 4 of the first 6 games to final margins that are better than the Adjusted NGE forecast for the games, falling short against Ohio in game 2 and Vanderbilt in game 4. The average difference between the predicted and actual margin in the first 6 games has been +2 1/2 points, and in the four games that ended in the positive range for this measure, the average has been +10. When the Cats are playing well, they have played very well relative to this measure. For this reason, I believe the Cats will get a win in their November 1 encounter with Missouri.
In game 11 at Tennessee, the predicted margin, based on today's rating values, is about 6 points. The same analysis as above indicates that this is the second best opportunity for the Cats to secure a second half victory. If the Cats can travel to Knoxville already bowl eligible, I believe this team will leave Knoxville with another win to add to its 2014 resume. However, if the Cats travel to Knoxville on the ropes of a four game losing streak at 5-5, I do not like the team's chances against the Big Orange.
The chances for these Cats in the other four last half games, the differences between the power ratings of the Cats and each of these opponents are -13 1/2 (LSU), -14 (Louisville), -16 (Mississippi State), and -17 (Georgia). I do not believe upsets are likely, based on the landscape today, for the Cats in these four games.
Bottom Line: The Cats must beat Missouri on November 1 to become bowl eligible. If they do, I believe they can get a 7th win, and if they do, anything can happen when the Cats and Cards tangle on the Saturday after Thanksgiving at the Pizza Bowl.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
GATEWAY TO THE 2014 SEC FOOTBALL SEASON
2014 Season Projections Based Solely on 2013 Season Statistics for All Teams
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