BIG BLUE FANS FOR
BASKETBALL
2006-07 Season Analytical Writings
02
The Morning After
Big Blue Madness
For 2006-07 Season
A Pill Anyone?
I revisited my comments following last year's BBM, and I have concluded that last year, the excitement, the anticipation, the "good things" I reported were all illusory.
I saw less from Carter last night than I thought I saw a year ago from him. I saw little from Obrzut. Thomas looked beefier, Morris seemed to move well up and down the floor, Bradley seemed at ease taking his shots, and the Four Freshmen [Are they a Singing Group] seemed to be very comfortable on the Rupp floor.
But, we must all remember, what we saw last night in the way of basketball was probably all illusory as well.
Until we see them against real competition, it is impossible to tell anything about how this team will perform this coming season. My experience has been that the numbers tend to settle into the range of significance within the first 7 or 8 games, including the two exhibition games. In addition, there could be some preliminary clues following the two exhibition games.
Over the last 7 years, the pace of the 14 exhibition games have averaged about 11 possessions more per game for UK than their resulting season average pace. For example, they have averaged about 94 possessions in those 14 exhibitions, while averaging 83 possessions in the real games for those seasons.
In addition, the offensive and defensive efficiencies in the 14 exhibition games have been generally higher than the corresponding efficiencies for the ensuing seasons. While the pace trends are consistent in each season, the efficiency comparisons have notable exceptions, 2001 2003 and 2006.
Here are the data I will be looking for in these two exhibition games.
If Tubby is serious about increasing pace, the pace of the exhibition games should have 100 or more possessions per game instead of the typical 92 we have seen over the last 7 years.
If this team is going to be better than an average Tubby Smith team [NGE =0.100 ppp] then I will want to see offensive efficiencies much better than Tubby's average for the last 9 seasons, and defensive efficiencies much lower than Tubby's average for the last 9 season. To apply numbers to this, I would expect to see an offensive efficiency of 1.000 ppp or higher and a defensive efficiency of 0.700 ppp or lower, producing a NGE for the two games of 0.300 ppp or more.
These numbers correspond to 30+ point blow out victories, about 100-70 scores, or better.
Last year, I posted a similar analysis, and the retort was, that will not happen because Tubby will not want to embarrass the opposing team/coach, and that Tubby would be sand bagging.
Well, we saw what happened last year, and prior years with that philosophy, if indeed it is a philosophy and not an excuse. If Tubby is intent upon a faster pace, I expect to see it in full measure out of the starting gate. If this team has the talent to win, and win big this season, they need not be concerned with who their opponent is, they need to hit the floor with intensity, and let the opponents be concerned with their own situations.
Why do I offer these comments and establish my expectations on the record in advance? Last year when the chatter mid season was focused on how much Morris' return would help the team, I had other views which I expressed with predictions about what impact his return would have on the team's overall performance level. The results closely paralleled my predictions, and came nowhere close to the forecasts that Morris would return UK to the national spotlight.
Yet, the critics continue to argue that my data is somehow biased, to prove my point that Tubby is not getting the job done. None of these critics has ever offered any basis or evidence to support such an allegation, yet the allegation persists.
I put this information out there in advance to get it on the record PRIOR to the games being played so when the actual game results are posted, and I comment about the significance of the results, I can diffuse the naysayers to a some extent, especially those who then contend that I twist the data to suit my agenda.
So, the bottom line for me about last night is that the excitement, the anticipation, the "good things" we observed in that setting are illusory, and likely meaningless with respect to what this team will do between November and March.
Let the games begin.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Installment Three Coming Soon
Copyright 2006
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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