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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings
04
Kentucky Opens With First Exhibition Game
Cats Overwhelm NAIA Lindsey-Wilson:
Pre-Game Analysis:
Two days before the first of two exhibition games for the opening of the 2006-07 season, Coach Tubby Smith announced a three game suspension of Senior Power Forward Sherray Thomas for violating unspecified “team rules.” Thomas had been identified as the probable starter at Power Forward. Coach Smith will compensate for his absence tonight by shifting Randolph Morris from Center to Power Forward and starting Senior Obrzut at Center.
Ironic as it may seem, last season Coach Smith opted to Start Obrzut in the first regular season game of the year over either Sims or Alleyne, both of whom have moved their games elsewhere following the conclusion of last year's unhappy performances by them and the entire team. This year will be Thomas' last as a cat regardless of the course that this season takes, as will Obrzut. However, the Obrzut selection means that Sophomore Carter has again been passed over.
As has been his custom, Coach Smith has again promised more uptempo play, and better team chemistry for the 2007 season than we witnessed last year. The turmoil that characterized the 2006 wildcats is well documented, and the Thomas suspension, before any real play begins, begs the question of real team chemistry and commitment to team goals.
Let's review the technical performance of the 2005-06 Wildcats.
Statistical Category: Exh. Gms OOC SEC Total
Pace, Possessions Per Game: 88 82 77 79
Offensive Efficiency, ppp: 0.933 0.855 0.926 0.891
Defensive Efficiency, ppp: 0.642 0.804 0.886 0.845
Net Game Efficiency, ppp: 0.291 0.051 0.040 0.046
It should be clear that these exhibition games, tonight against NAIA Lindsey-Wilson, and next Monday's match up against South Carolina Upstate must be viewed through the proper prism, but when so viewed, they can provide some insight into the season that will follow. My experience has been that these games will provide a positive indication for the season when UK 's offensive efficiency exceeds 1.000 ppp for the two games combined, and the UK defensive efficiency is less than 0.700 ppp for the two games. With respect to pace, the season average will be significantly slower than the pace of these games. If UK is serious this season about increasing the pace of play, that should emerge in these games as a pace in excess of 100 possessions per game for the pair of games.
First Half Summary:
Tubby started Bradley, Crawford, Perry, Morris and Obzut, two seniors and three juniors. This is one of the most experienced starting line ups that Coach Smith has started a season with in a few years.
During the first half, Coach Smith used his bench extensively, and got some excellent minutes from his corps of freshmen. The two teams played it relatively close to the vest for the first 16 minutes with UK holding to a 31 – 25 lead at the under 4 time out of the first half. However, in the last mini-segment of the first half, the Wildcats erupted for 16 points on their final 7 possessions compared to only 2 points on Lindsey-Wilson's final 9 possessions of the half to built an impressive 47 to 27 halftime lead.
Kentucky Wildcats used that powerful final four minutes to sprint to a 20 point first half lead, to a 47-27 against a clearly inferior opponent. In first half, UK had 41 possessions while LW had 39. UK offensive rebounding edge, 6-4 producing second chance points advantage of 4 - 2. LW had an offensive efficiency of 0.714 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 0.500 for its 4 second chance possessions. UK had 1.229 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions. Kentucky dominated the boards, building a 21-11 edge in total rebounds, and the +2 edge on the offensive rebounding differential provides 2 of the 20 point first half lead.
The free throw shooting in the first half was perfect for both teams, 6-6 for UK , and 4-4 for LW. Field goal shooting for UK was 18-31 overall [58.1%] and 5-12 from long range [41.7%]. For LW, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a dismal 4-18 [22.2%] but from long range, LW hit 5-10 [50%].
Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:
MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 85th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Ky needs 38 points, while LW needs a whopping 58 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 82 possessions for the game for Kentucky and 78 possessions for LW.
Second Half Summary:
In the second half, Kentucky continued its dominance of the LW team, duplicating the first half accomplishments almost identically, finishing with a 40 point win, 94-54. came out of the blocks as if they meant business, outscoring SDSU 14-6, and expanding its half time lead to 21 points. UK scored its 94 points in a total of 85 possessions for the game, and LW scored its 54 points on a total of 83 possessions.
UK offensive rebounding edge, 11-10 producing second chance points advantage of 10-8. LW had an offensive efficiency of 0.639 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 0.800 for its 10 second chance possessions. UK had 1.135 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 0.909 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions. Kentucky dominated the boards, building a 44-23 edge in total rebounds, and the +1 edge on the offensive rebounding differential. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 45.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LW was only able to convert 23.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
The free throw shooting in the first half was perfect for both teams. However, UK 's second half free throw shooting dropped off to 11-16 [68.8%] for the game, and only 5-10 in the second half. LW made 9-11 [81/8%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 38-59 overall [64.4%] and 7-15 from long range [46.7%]. For LW, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a dismal 9-40 [22.5%] but from long range, LW hit 9-20 [45.0%].
Post Game Analysis:
As noted prior to this game, UK 's performance in these two exhibition games can provide an important glimpse into what may be in store for this team this season. The criteria I presented were:
• At least 1.000 ppp offensive efficiency for the two games combined.
• No more than 0.700 ppp defensive efficiency for the two games combined,
• A Net Game Efficiency of at least 0.300 ppp for both games combined
UK passed each of these tests tonight in the first of two exhibition games for this season. The offensive efficiency of 1.106 ppp is very impressive as the team operated with great efficiency at the offensive end against this LW team. The defensive efficiency was 0.659 ppp, which is also an impressive start against this exhibition opponent for a game Net Game Efficiency of 0.482 ppp.
The only issue that was not very impressive tonight was the game pace. The 85 possessions in this game is slightly less than the 87 possessions that UK averaged in the two exhibition games last year. Therefore, this early indication is that the pace of play this year will probably be very similar to the 80 possessions per game posted by the 2006 team.
Next Game On Schedule:
Monday night, again at Rupp Arena, the Cats will take on South Carolina Upstate in the second, and last exhibition game of the 2006-07 season
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Copyright 2006
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
All Rights Reserved