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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings
09
Kentucky Fails First Real Test of 2006-07 Season
Falls to UCLA 73-68
Pre-Game Analysis:
Monday night, UK used an unusually efficient offensive performance to overcome a failure of its defense in beating DePaul in the first round of the Maui Invitational. The prize is an opportunity to show the world that Tubby Smith is ready, willing and able to place the Kentucky Wildcats back on the national stage. Tonight, Tubby's Cats have completed their preparations, and it is time to put up or shut up.
UCLA and Kentucky represent the historical best of NCAA basketball. The stage is set and the curtain will be lifted on this classic at about 9:30 pm EST.
UCLA earned their ticket to this game by virtue of its easy victory last night over host Chaminade. However, other that that game, UCLA only has one prior game in the books, an 82-69 win over Brigham Young. One game is not really enough to properly assess any team with regard to its pace and efficiency. Nonetheless, on the “strength” of that solitary game, UCLA has posted an offensive efficiency of 0.976 ppp and a defensive efficiecy of 0.958 ppp. UCLA also had 84 possessions, to BYU's 72 possessions in that initial game, on the strength of UCLA's impressive offensive board work that provided them a +8 offensive rebounding advantage.
As I have discussed with respect to UK's previous games so far this season, I am watching three key performance measures this early season; pace, NGE, and offensive rebounding differential. Prior to the Miami game, I identified three statistics that would be significant to my thinking. In my opinion, these same statistics are important for the MVS and all other games this season.
• The pace of the game: Will UK dictate the pace of this game or play to the opponent's preferences? In the first two games, UK allowed its opponent to dictate the game pace, and the overall pace was slower than the earlier game pace last season. Tonight, I anticipate a pace in the mid to upper 70s for Kentucky and I expect UCLA to enjoy about 4 to 6 additional possessions tonight due to its offensive rebounding abilitites [See Below].
• Net Game Efficiency: UK 's early season NGE values for games have tracked somewhat lower than anticipated against the inferior opposition. Tonight, I expect UCLA to claim the advantage in this category for the game. If UCLA's advantage is over 0.150 ppp, then UK will be in serious trouble. If the NGE advantage for UCLA is less than 0.050 ppp, or if UK manages to win this statistical category, that will bode will for the Cats.
• Offensive Rebounding: As noted in previous game analyses, this is an important parameter because the team that wins the offensive rebounding battles gains bonus possessions, unmatched scoring opportunities. The early rebounding against less than imposing opposition has provided a warning that this team may not have the fortitude it takes to battle the powerful teams. Tonight, I anticipate an UCLA team that will control the offensive boards, by a margin of 4 to 6. If UK holds its own on the offensive boards, this could be a very close finish, but if UCLA gets 4 to 6 bonus possessions, the hole that these second chance opportunities will provide UCLA may be too deep for UK to overcome
Last season, UCLA posted a record of 27-6 record prior to the NCAA tournament. In the tournament, UCLA advanced to the Final Four and the Championship game before losing to Florida . UCLA's final RPI rank was #9 and a Strength of Schedule of 0.5719.
In their first game this season, UCLA posted offensive and defensive efficiencies of 0.976 ppp and 0.958 ppp respectively. Based on this very limited early data, and UK 's performance to date, which includes three regular season games, I see UK as a 19 point underdog in this game, and have predicted a 81-62 UCLA win on about 74 possessions by UK and 80 possessions by UCLA. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.836 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 1.016 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 73 points.
First Half Summary:
Tubby again started Bradley, Crawford, Perry, Morris and Stevenson, one seniors, three juniors and a freshman. Unlike the last two games, UK came out of the gates cold from the field, while UCLA started like a house afire, racing to leads of 15-6 and 26-9 in the first 10 minutes of the half. To make matters worse, UK 's junior leaders Morris and Bradley were both tagged with two fouls and went to the bench.
As bleak at that situation seemed, it gave the freshmen an opportunity to play significant minutes and Meeks, Jasper and Stevenson led a rally that saw the Cats cut that 15 point lead to 6 points at 28-20, and then the teams played out the remainder of the first half on even terms, with UCLA taking a 38-30 lead into the locker room. The game pace is low 80s possession, which is faster than anticipated for these two teams.
In first half, UK had 42 possessions while UCLA had 44 possessions. UCLA earned an offensive rebounding edge, 7-5. However, UCLA made much better use of their second chance possessions, converting their 7 opportunities into 11 second chance points while UK was only able to convert its 5 second chance possessions into 3 second chance points in the first half.
UCLA had an offensive efficiency of 0.711 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 1.571 for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 0.711 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 0.600 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions. UCLA won the battle of the boards 22-21 in the first half for total rebounds, and had an offensive rebounding advantage of +2 for the half.
The free throw shooting in the first half was for UK was 10-14[71.4%] and UCLA was a pitiful 4-11[36.4%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 9-26 overall [34.6%] and a weak 2-8 from long range [25.0%]. For UCLA, their field goal shooting overall was a also strong, 16-35 [45.7%] and a weak 2-9 [22.2%] from long range. UK committed 10 turnovers in the half, one for every 4.3 possessions and UCLA committed 5 turnovers for the half, one for every 9.0 possessions.
Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:
MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 73 rd point will win tonight. To reach that score, Ky needs 43 points, while UCLA needs 35 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 84 possessions for the game for UK and 88 possessions for UCLA. UCLA scored its 73 rd point of the game on a free throw with 0:006 to play in the game..
Second Half Summary:
In the second half, Kentucky came out of the locker room more determined, and playing much better basketball, and they continued to cut into the UCLA lead until they caught up at 48 on a Crawford 3 pointer just before the under 12 tV timeout. UK forged ahead on a couple of Jasper free throws, 50-48. UCLA answered with 5 straight, but UK caught up again on another Crawford three pointer, 55-55 with about 7 minutes to play in the game, just prior to the under 8 TV Timeout with 6:59 to play in the game.
So this clash of the Titans will be determined by the final 7 minutes. These two heavy weights stood at the center of this arena and exchanged punches for the next 3 minutes and UCLA eased to a 4 point lead, 65-61 at the under 4 TV timeout with Morris scheduled for 2 more free throws when play resumes. This game will be determined by this final 4 minutes of play. The teams exchange possessions for going into the last minute of play with UCLA clinging to a 2 point lead, 67-65, and Kentucky clinging to the possessions. Kentucky takes a time out with 51 seconds to play to map out strategy for these final possessions that will determine the winner. UCLA denies the entry pass to Morris, and the tie up goes to the Cats with 38.7 left on the clock, and 14 left on the shot clock. A Bradley turnover provided UCLA a run out basket to extend the lead to 4 with only 30 seconds to play. Bradley then misses a three point attempt, but UCLA loses the rebound out of bounds under the basket with 17 to play. UCLA hangs on to win by 5, 73-68.
UCLA won the rebounding battles during the game, 37-33. In the process, UCLA controlled the offensive boards in the game, 14-6, for a +8 margin. Kentucky converted its 4 second chance opportunities into only 3 second chance points whereas UCLA used its 14 second chance opportunities to post 14 second chance points.
UCLA had an offensive efficiency of 0.831 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 14 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.903 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and only 0.500 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions. In a very real sense, the game was decided by these relative efficiencies of these second chance possessions.
UK grabbed only 20.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while UCLA was able to convert 34.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK shot the ball well from the free throw line tonight, converting 18-25 [72.0%] UCLA was not effective from the free throw line tonight making 13-24 [54.2%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 22-50 overall [44.0%] and 6-15 [40.0%] from long range. For UCLA, their field goal shooting overall was 29-65 [44.6%] and a very weak 10.5% from long range, 2-19.
Kentucky committed 16 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.9 possessions. UCLA committed 8 turnover, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 10.6 possessions.
Post Game Analysis:
As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.
• The pace of the game: Will UK dictate the pace of this game or play to the opponent's preferences? In the first two games, UK allowed its opponent to dictate the game pace, and the overall pace was slower than the earlier game pace last season. Tonight, I anticipate a pace in the mid to upper 70s for Kentucky and I expect UCLA to enjoy about 4 to 6 additional possessions tonight due to its offensive rebounding abilitites [See Below]. UK had 77 possessions and UCLA had 85 possessions.
• Net Game Efficiency: UK 's early season NGE values for games have tracked somewhat lower than anticipated against the inferior opposition. Tonight, I expect UCLA to claim the advantage in this category for the game. If UCLA's advantage is over 0.150 ppp, then UK will be in serious trouble. If the NGE advantage for UCLA is less than 0.050 ppp, or if UK manages to win this statistical category, that will bode will for the Cats. The final NGE for this game was in UK 's favor, but was only 0.004 ppp.
• Offensive Rebounding: As noted in previous game analyses, this is an important parameter because the team that wins the offensive rebounding battles gains bonus possessions, unmatched scoring opportunities. The early rebounding against less than imposing opposition has provided a warning that this team may not have the fortitude it takes to battle the powerful teams. Tonight, I anticipate an UCLA team that will control the offensive boards, by a margin of 4 to 6. If UK holds its own on the offensive boards, this could be a very close finish, but if UCLA gets 4 to 6 bonus possessions, the hole that these second chance opportunities will provide UCLA may be too deep for UK to overcome. UCLA controlled the offensive boards, and claimed a net +8 offensive rebounds for the game.
Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and “B-” respectively as shown below:
Next Game On Schedule:
On November 22, 2006 , UK will play its fifth regular season game against Memphis for third place in the Maui Classic in Hawaii ..
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
Copyright 2006
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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