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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

15
Kentucky Travels To Louisville
To Take On a Struggling Louisville Team

Pre-Game Analysis:

Last Saturday afternoon, Tubby Smith's Kentucky Wildcats managed to beat a mediocre Indiana Hoosier team by 5 points, 59-54 despite committing 17 turnovers and allowing Indiana to control the offensive boards to the tune of 22-10 [-12]. The Cats managed this win due to a great disparity in the shooting inside the arc. Kentucky made 55.3% of its 2-point attempts [21-38] while IU managed only 18-47 [38.3%]. Outside the arc, both teams shot the ball very poorly, with the Cats only making 1 of 11 attempts and IU only making 4 of 25 attempts.

The turnover margin [11-17] and offensive rebounding margin [10-22] provided Indiana 18 additional looks at the basket, over and above the looks that UK 's Cats could get. However, unlike UNC who used the same number of “bonus” looks effectively to hand the Cats a 12 point defeat, IU was not able to make the Cats pay for their poor ball handling and poor rebounding with their 4 th loss in six games. The Cats managed to survive and claim the win.

This leaves UK at 1-1 against the traditional opponents, UNC and IU, with Louisville looming on the horizon for Saturday, December 16, 2006 in Freedom Hall in Louisville .

Read About UK-UL Rivalry

Louisville brings a 5-3 record into this game, with losses to Dayton in Cincinnati , Arizona in New York City , and last night to Massachusetts at Freedom Hall. Furthermore, one Cardinal win came at the expense of D2 Bellermine College a few days ago, leaving the 2006-07 Cards at 4-3 against D1 competition, and generally not playing very good basketball in the early part of this season.

One difference between UL's pre-Kentucky schedule this year and last is that the quality of their opponents has increased. Last year, the Cards had coasted through their preliminary cupcakes without a blemish only to fall to the Cats at Rupp by 12, 73-61. This year's match-up has some similar feels to last year's, even if roles may be reversed. Last year, the Cards came to Rupp to face a Cat squad that was in a free fall following a home court loss to a very young UNC team and a humiliating defeat to Indiana the week before. However, the Cats found the formula for success, avoided the complete crash and burn that another home loss, especially to Louisville , would have created. This year, the Cards are the team in the tailspin, following their 4-3 start and their home loss to Massachusetts .

Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Louisville as the #85 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #51 ranked team. Pomeroy projects a 1-point Kentucky win over Louisville [73-72] despite the Freedom Hall environs. However, Pomeroy recognizes that this game could go either way, assigning probability of Kentucky win at 55%.

Kentucky averages 80 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged just under 85 possessions per game. Louisville currently averages 85 possessions per game while their opponents average 85 possessions. This means that unlike Kentucky , Louisville has been holding its own on the offensive rebounding battles while UK continues to struggle and is losing this battle by about 5 per game. With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 4.8 possessions, and Louisville averages one turnover for each 5.5 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.1 opponent possessions while Louisville forces one turnover for each 5.7 opponent possessions. Louisville 's offensive efficiency has been 0.914 ppp and 78 points per game. Louisville 's defensive efficiency has been 0.845 ppp while holding opponents to 72 ppg. Their early NGE is 0.069 ppp.

Kentucky has posted poorer offensive efficiency at this stage of the season, at 0.874 ppp while scoring about 70 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.772 ppp on about 65 ppg. UK 's early season NGE stands at 0.102 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.6331 for Louisville and 0.5756 for UK .

Each Kentucky opponent except MVS has exposed the exact same Kentucky weaknesses. UK 's continues to have difficulty on the offensive boards and continues to commit turnovers at an ever-increasing rate. Louisville stands to expose both of these weaknesses on Saturday. According to Rick Pitino, Louisville 's Achilles heel is defensive, primarily interior defense at the 5 position, which UK is well positioned to exploit given the recent play by Randolph Morris in the post.

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 85 possessions per game. Louisville has been playing at a slightly faster pace, 85 possessions per game. In this game, it will be unusual if the pace is outside a range of 83 to 87 possessions for this game.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.102 ppp, which is almost identical to Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . If UK can post a game NGE above 0.000 ppp, then UK should win this game. However, a UK game NGE of -0.050 or more will spell a UL victory.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -5 through the first 9 games. Louisville has held its own on the offensive board work thus far, and controlled the offensive boards last night against Massachusetts in defeat. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with UL securing about 2 more offensive rebounds that the Cats for the game.

Louisville posted a record of 18-12 record last season through the Big East Tournament, and participated in the NIT. Louisville 's final RPI rank was #71 with a Strength of Schedule of 0.5628. At this early stage of this season, Louisville stands with a RPI rank of #60 with a SOS of 0.6331.

Based on this early performance data for Indiana and UK to date, which includes nine regular season games for UK and 8 regular season games [7 v D1 opposition] for Louisville, Louisville is a significant 8 point favorite, 75-67 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 83 possessions for UK and 85 possessions for Louisville . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.810 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.887 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.

For Kentucky , Louisville is the third of three consecutive Saturday rivalry games, with a cupcake, Chattanooga , sandwiched between UNC and IU. For elite programs, that set their sights on March and April from the end of each prior season, games against teams that also play on a national stage are the marquee events. As much as our collective memories want to promote this game as such a Marquee event, the numbers for UK and UL tell us that this game is only going to determine which group gets the State bragging rights for the next 12 months. These once proud basketball program are struggling to demonstrate that they too remain relevant on the national stage, but at present both are losing their battles.

First Half Summary:

Tubby stuck with his most recent starting lineup for this game, his third starting combo in the first 9 games. Tonight Jasper will start at the point, and join Bradley, Crawford, Perry, and Morris for a three guard configuration with the hopes of fewer turnovers. This lineup consists of one senior, three juniors, and a freshman.

UL won the opening tip and only need about 10 seconds to take the lead, a lead that they would extend to 6 points before UK could score its first bucket, on a break away steal by Jasper. However, the last play of the first game segment ended with Randolph Morris picking up his second foul of the game as the teams returned to their benches for the under 16 TV timeout and UL leading 6-4, with two free throws coming after this break. UL's game plan emerged early, and it is to neutralize Morris on the inside by allowing Jasper all the room outside he could want to shoot, and to take the ball at Morris at the other end, with great success in the first 4 minutes.

Out of the timeout, Padgett made one of the free throws, and the teams traded an additional basket during the entire second segment of the game. At the under 12 TV timeout, UK and UL both have 5 turnovers, are both shooting poorly, and the difference is marked by the 3 of 4 free throws by UL to UK's 0-0 free throws, score: 9-6.

When Morris left the game with 15:40 to play, UL immediately changed its defense from the sagging zone to man-to-man. In addition, Pitino inserted Caracter into the line-up. In the third segment, taking the game to the under 8 TV timeout, UL again outscored the Cats, for the third consecutive segment, to extend the lead to 16-12.

Out of the break, Porter made 1 of 2 free throws to cut the lead to 2, and back to back baskets, the last a 12 foot jumper by Obrzut gave the cats their first lead of the game, 17-16 at the 6 minute point, prompting a UL timeout. Out of the timeout, UL regained the lead, and the teams finished this 4 th game segment at the under 4 TV timeout with UL clinging to a 21-20 lead. UL has committed more turnovers thus far, 7-5, and UL has grabbed three more offensive rebounds than UK , 6-3.

Kentucky outscored UL 7-3 in the final segment to take a 3 point lead into the locker room, 27-24.

Louisville won the overall battle of the boards in the first half, 24-19, and Louisville won the battle of the offensive boards, 11-5. However, UL failed to use its offensive rebounds effectively against Kentucky . Kentucky managed 6 second chance points from its 5 offensive rebounds while Louisville converted it 11 offensive boards into only 3 second chance points.

Louisville had an offensive efficiency of only 0.677 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 0.273 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had 0.656 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 1.200 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

The free throw shooting in the first half was for UK was poor, 2-6 [33.3%] and Louisville was only 6-10[60.0%] in the half. Field goal shooting for UK was a 11-27 overall [40.7%] and a poor 3-11 from long range [27.3%]. For Louisville , their field goal shooting overall was poor, 8-30 [26.7%] and a poor 2-12 [16.7%] from long range. UK committed 7 turnovers in the half, one for every 5.3 possessions and Louisville committed 7 turnovers for the half, one for every 6.1 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 53 rd point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 26 points, while Louisville needs 29 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 74 possessions for the game for UK and 86 possessions for Louisville . Kentucky scored its 53 rd point of the game on a Thomas basket at the about 3 to play mark and the score of 53-47. Kentucky played out the last 3 minutes to secure its third straight win over UL, 61-49.

Second Half Summary:

Kentucky opened the second half by extending their 3 point half time lead to 7, 36-29. UL cut that back to 5 points before the under 16 break, with the Cats holding on to a 36-31 lead. The story of this game is the outstanding UK defense through the first 24 minutes. However, Morris picked up his third foul within the first 30 seconds and is sitting again. UL then began to chip away at that UK lead, cutting it to 2 points at the under 12 TV timeout, 38-36. Turnovers are beginning to mount for the Cats, now 12 with about 11 minutes to play, and the offensive rebounding woes continue, except UL has been converting their second chances into points during the second half and now lead on second chance points 7-6.

Morris returned to the game out of the timeout and UL immediately took the ball inside to Padgett to tied the score on Morris. UL then regained the lead 41-40 on a back door three point play. However, the lead was short lived, as Meeks drops a 3 pointer, prompting another UL timeout with about 10 minutes to go, and UK leading 43-41.

In the next 2 minutes following the UL timeout, Kentucky extended the lead to 46-41 on another Meeks three pointer. With just under 8 minutes to play, Turnovers stand at 12-10, and offensive rebounds stand at 7-17. UL has gotten 13 more looks at the basket and scored 5 fewer points.

Meeks then converts three free throws to extend the lead to 49-41, and UL scores the next 4 to cut the score to 49-45 at the under 4 TV timeout.

It is Crunch Time for both of these teams.

In the final and decisive segment, UK stretched their lead and prevailed pulling away, 61-49.

Louisville won the rebounding battles during the game, 44-40. Louisville controlled the offensive boards in the game, 21-11, for a +10 margin. Kentucky converted its 11 second chance opportunities into 9 second chance points and Louisville used its 21 second chance opportunities to post just 9 second chance points.

Louisville had an offensive efficiency of 0.625 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 0.429 ppp for its 21 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.853 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 0.818 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed an average 32.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Louisville was able to convert 42.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot its average from the free throw line tonight, converting 15-22 [68.2%] Louisville was a little less effective from the free throw line tonight making 12-18 [66.7%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 20-48 overall [41.7%] and a respectable 6-18 [33.3%] from long range. For Louisville , their field goal shooting overall was very poor throughout the game, 17-62 [27.4%] and an anemic 12.5% from long range, 3-24.

Kentucky committed 13 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.5 possessions. Louisville committed 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 7.0 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

•  The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 85 possessions per game. Louisville has been playing at a slightly faster pace, 85 possessions per game. In this game, it will be unusual if the pace is outside a range of 83 to 87 possessions for this game. For the game, UK had only 72 possessions, and UL had 84 possessions.

•  Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's early season NGE stands at 0.102 ppp, which is almost identical to Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . If UK can post a game NGE above 0.000 ppp, then UK should win this game. However, a UK game NGE of -0.050 or more will spell a UL victory. For the second game in a row, UK posted a significant NGE for the game, yet had the impact of that NGE negated, at least in part, by poor offensive rebounding. The NGE today is 0.252, an impressive number for the Cats.

•  Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -5 through the first 9 games. Louisville has held its own on the offensive board work thus far, and controlled the offensive boards last night against Massachusetts in defeat. I expect UK to lose this battle again, with UL securing about 2 more offensive rebounds that the Cats for the game. Offensive rebounding continues to be a problem for these Cats, and today, UL earned a +10 margin in this statistical area.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a rare “A” respectively as shown below: It is important to note that this is the second straight game in which UK 's defense has graded an “A”.

Next Game On Schedule:

On December 19, 2006 , UK will play its eleventh regular season game against Santa Clara at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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