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2006-07 Season Analytical Writings

39
Kentucky Takes On #1 Seed Kansas In NCAA Second Round
By
TheProfessor

Pre-Game Analysis:

By virtue of its deceptive 9 point victory over Villanova on Friday night, the Kentucky Wildcats advance to the second round of the NCAA where they must confront the #1 seed in their region for the second year in a row. Last season, they gave UConn all they wanted, and perhaps even more before falling out of the tournament. The respective records of Kentucky and Kansas say that this Kentucky team will probably suffer the same fate today at the hands of Kansas .

Entering post season play, Kansas has a RPI Strength of Schedule of 0.5545 and a RPI ranking of #11. Pomeroy's efficiency based rankings currently place Kansas as the #2 ranked team, and Kentucky is the #13 ranked team.

Kentucky averages 79.6 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 81.4 possessions per game. Kansas currently averages 84.5 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 83.0 possessions per game. Kansas has been getting as more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents this season while UK stands at -1.8 per game. UK grabs 34.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Kansas grabs a well above average 38.0% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents average 33.0% of their misses as offensive rebounds while Kansas allows its opponents 30.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.4 possessions, and Kansas averages one turnover for each 6.1 possessions. However, UK does not force turnovers as frequently; one for each 6.3 opponent possessions while Kansas forces one turnover for each 4.9 opponent possessions. Kansas 's offensive efficiency has been 0.938 ppp and 79.3 points per game. Kansas 's defensive efficiency has been 0.738 ppp while holding opponents to 61.2 ppg. Their NGE is 0.200 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a lower offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.922 ppp while scoring about 73.3 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.824 ppp on about 67.1 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.098 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5545 for Kansas and 0.6204 for UK .

I continue to watch three key performance measures this season; Pace, NGE, and Offensive Rebounding Differential.

• The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. Kansas has been playing at a faster pace, 81-82 possessions per game for themselves while limiting their opponents to about 79 possessions per game. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low 80s range.
• Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.104 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 12 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.050 ppp against Kansas today would be a strong Cat performance against the Tide, while a game NGE of less than -0.150 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Kansas .
• Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -1.9 through the first 32 games. I expect Kansas will grab at least one more offensive rebounds in this game. I expect Kansas to win the battle of the offensive boards by +1 today.

Based on this performance data for Kansas and UK to date, which includes thirty regular season games for UK and 31 regular season games for Kansas, and three post season tournament games for Kentucky and four post season games for Kansas, Kansas is a 4-point favorite, 72-68 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 82 possessions for UK and 82 possessions for Kansas . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.829 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.878 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 71 points.

First Half Summary:

Tubby Smith stayed with his same starting lineup that he had used for most of the season.

Both teams begin this game with red hot shooting, Kansas 4 of their first 5 shots and Kentucky 3 of 4. However, the early difference is that Kansas is hitting from long range and Kentucky has committed 3 early turnovers to Kansas ' 1 turnover. Kansas took an 11-7 lead to the bench at the under 16 TV timeout. The early pace is about 70 possessions, and rebounding is 1-1 due to only one miss by each team.

In the second segment, UK climbed back to tie the score at 11 and again at 14. After Kentucky moved out to match its largest lead of the game, 2 points at 17-15, and again at 19-17, Kansas scored 4 quick points to reclaim a 2 point lead of their own, 21-19 at the under 8 TV timeout with 7 minutes to play. Through the first 13 minutes, Kentucky is making 50% of its shots [8-16; 2-5] while Kansas is shooting 53.3% [8-15; 4-8].

Leading to the under 4 TV timeout, Kansas methodically extended their lead to 3 points, 28-25. The pace early is about 70 possessions for the game, which is slower than either team has played on average this season. The pace appears to play into UK 's overall game plan. Turnovers are even at 6 each, and Kentucky is winning the rebounding battles and offensive rebounding battles, each +3. After a fast shooting start by both teams, Kentucky's shooting has continued to fall, now at 45% [9-20; 3-8] while Kansas continues to shoot very well, 57.9% [11-19; 5-9].

Out of the timeout, Kansas converted two free throws. Following another UK turnover, a KU basket extended the Jayhawk lead to its biggest of the day, 7 points at 32-25. The teams played out the final 3 minutes of the first half exchanging baskets, and Kansas took a 6 point lead to the locker room at the half, 36-30.

Kentucky and Kansas battle even on the boards for the first half, 16-16, but Kentucky owns a +1 offensive rebounding advantage, 5-4. The pace is about 76 possessions for UK and 74 possessions for Kansas

Kansas scored its 36 points on 37 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.973 ppp. Kansas had an offensive efficiency of 0.970 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 4 second chance possessions. UK had 0.727 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 1.200 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions. Kentucky had an overall efficiency of 0.790 ppp for the first half.

UK was 4 for 6 [66.7%] and Kansas was 7-10 [70.0%] from the free throw line in the first half. Field goal shooting for UK was a 11-27 overall [40.7%] and a respectable 4-11 from long range [36.4%]. For Kansas , their field goal shooting overall was 12-25 [48.0%] and a very strong 5-10 [50.0%] from long range. UK committed 8 turnovers in the half, one for every 4.8 possessions and Kansas committed 7 turnovers for the half, one for every 5.3 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 70 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 40 points, while Kansas needs 34 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 76 possessions for the game for UK and 74 possessions for Kansas . Kansas scored its 70 th point on a lob dunk with 6:00 to play in the game and Kansas holding to a 71-54 lead. Kansas played out the final 6 minutes to secure the victory, 88-76.

Second Half Summary:

Kansas started the second half with a three pointer, extending the lead temporarily to 9 points, but Bobby Perry answered with back to back three pointers of his own to cut the lead back to 3 points, 39-36. Thereafter, Kansas owned the mini-game, outscoring Kentucky 10-2. Shortly thereafter, Randolph Morris committed his third foul, sending him to the bench. In this segment, Kentucky took 8 shots from the field, and 6 of those were three point attempts, the Bobby Perry shots the only makes. The end of that 10-2 run prompted at Kentucky timeout with 15:40 to play.

Out of the timeout, a Kansas three pointer extended the lead to 14 points, 54-40. Kentucky trimmed the lead back to 12 points, and at the next stop in play, a Kentucky foul, Tubby Smith sent Morris back into the game with about 14 minutes to play and the game slipping away on the continued high Kansas efficiency, 1.125 points per possession for the game, and in the face of Kentucky 's poor efficiency, 0.824 ppp. At the under 12 TV timeout, Kentucky trimmed the lead back to 11 points, 56-45.

The pace of the game continues in the upper 70s for Kentucky and lower to mid 70s for Kansas . Kentucky 's shooting has fallen further in the first 8 minutes of the second half, to 36.6% [15-41; 6-18] while Kansas continues to shoot at 54.1% [20-37; 8-13]. Kentucky hold a +2 edge in total rebounds, and a +4 edge on the offensive boards. Turnovers are 9-8 with Kentucky committing the extra turnover.

In the third mini-game, Kansas maintained its double digit lead, finishing at an 13 point lead, 64-51 with 7:40 to play. At the under 4 TV timeout, Kansas was simply working the clock while maintaining its lead at 15 points, 78-63 with 2:50 to play in the game. The Jayhawks close the deal, winning by 12 points, 88-76.

Kentucky won the boards for total rebounds, 32-30, and Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards, 14-9, +5. Kentucky converted its 14 second chance opportunities into 20 second chance points and Kansas used its 9 second chance opportunities to post 13 second chance points.

Kansas had an offensive efficiency of 1.119 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 1.444 ppp for its 9 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.158 ppp for the game. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.836 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 1.429 ppp on its 14 second chance possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.938 ppp for the game..

UK grabbed a strong 40.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Kansas was able to convert only an average 33.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit an above average 18-23 for the game [78.3%] from the free throw line today and Kansas also made 18-23 [78.3%]. UK 's field goal shooting was very low for the game, shooting 24-58 [41.4%] overall and a decent 10-26 [38.5%] from long range. Kansas 's field goal shooting overall was about 55.6% [30-54], and a red hot 10-16 [62.5%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.8 possessions. Kansas committed 11 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.9 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, I was interested in three parameters from tonights opening game.

• The pace of the game: Despite the proclamations to the contrary, Kentucky has settled in to an average pace of about 80 possessions per game, but have been giving their opponents about 82 possessions per game. Kansas has been playing at a faster pace, 81-82 possessions per game for themselves while limiting their opponents to about 79 possessions per game. In this game, it is likely that the pace will be in the low 80s range. Kentucky had 81 possessions and Kansas had 76 possessions for today's game.
• Net Game Efficiency: Kentucky 's current NGE stands at 0.104 ppp, which is very slightly above Tubby Smith's 9 year average at UK . The NGE has been falling steadily over the last 12 games. The NGE peaked after the USC “poleaxing”. A UK NGE above 0.050 ppp against Kansas today would be a strong Cat performance against the Tide, while a game NGE of less than -0.150 ppp will be a poor overall performance against the Kansas . The game NGE was -0.220 ppp.
• Offensive Rebounding: Kentucky has not gotten the job done this season on the offensive boards, averaging -1.9 through the first 32 games. I expect Kansas will grab at least one more offensive rebounds in this game. I expect Kansas to win the battle of the offensive boards by +1 today. Kentucky won the battle of the offensive glass 14-9, +5.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a rare “E” respectively as shown below:

UK KANSAS@NCAA2 GRADES

Next Game:

Today's loss closes the 2006-07 season for the Kentucky Wildcats. The next event that will include basketball will be Big Blue Madness on or near October 15, 2007 . However, much activity will occur during this off season, as has been the case with this program in recent years.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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