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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

03
Kentucky Opens With First Exhibition Game Against NAIA Pikeville College:

Pre-Game Analysis:

On Wednesday night, Billy Gillispie presented his first edition to the Big Blue faithful at Rupp arena and they waltzed to a 99-64 victory. While the win was easy, there was considerable room for improvement in that the Cats committed far too many turnovers, did not hold their own on the offensive boards, and packed up their defense after only 28 minutes and simply coasted defensively to the final buzzer. In response to this debut performance, Coach Gillispie promised considerable improvements with pace of offensive attack and defensive intensity for tonight's game against Seattle in the Cats' final tune-up game of this new season.

As noted prior to the Pikeville College game, the Cats can send a strong signal via these exhibition games that they are ready to explode on the NCAA basketball scene by taking their game to these exhibition opponents without regard to the scoreboard. The target offensive and defensive efficiencies for these exhibition games were at least 1.100 ppp and no more than 0.600 ppp respectively. The target pace for these tune-ups is 100 possessions per game. The Cats fell short of these targets for defense and pace.

It should be clear that these exhibition games, tonight against NAIA Pikeville College, and the November 3, 2007 match up against Seattle must be viewed through the proper prism, but when so viewed, they can provide some insight into the season that will follow. My experience has been that these games will provide a positive indication for the season when UK's offensive efficiency exceeds 1.100 ppp for the two games combined, and the UK defensive efficiency is less than 0.600 ppp for the two games. With respect to pace, the season average will be significantly slower than the pace of these games. If UK is serious this season about increasing the pace of play, that should emerge in these games as a pace in excess of 100 possessions per game for the pair of games.

On the basis of these the actual performance against Pikeville College, rather than the “hoped for” results in the exhibition games, I “predict” a UK win over Seattle University by a score of 95 – 60, with each team having 90 possessions.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie started Bradley, Meeks, Coury, Patterson, and Harris, one senior, one freshman, and three sophomores. The Cats' other senior, Joe Crawford, a starter last season is still healing from recent surgery, and Freshman Patrick Patterson replaces Perry Stevenson in the lineup.

Just as they did Wednesday night, the Cats open with very sloppy play in the first segment, turning the ball over 5 times. However, unlike Wednesday when near perfect shooting early in the game masked the sloppiness of the play, tonight, the cats have only gotten 3 shots from the field in the first segment of the game, and trail Seattle 5-6 at the under 16 TV timeout. In addition, Seattle has been crashing the boards, and leads the offensive rebounding battle 2-0 at this early stage of the game. In the second segment, the pace of play slowed considerably with each team only getting 6 possessions, and UK using its 6 possessions to post 10 points while holding Seattle to only 1 point during the second segment of the game.

Out of the under 12 TV timeout, the Cats picked up the defensive intensity and the pace of the game increased as well. In the third segment, the Cats also began to hit the offensive boards, getting 11 possessions, but the Cats could only convert those 11 opportunities into 7 points. Seattle only scored 3 points during the segment on 7 possessions. At the under 8 TV timeout, the Cats have an offensive efficiency of 0.880 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.435 ppp and the pace of the game is about 83 possessions for the game.. The same pattern of play continued to the under 4 TV timeout, and the Cats extending their lead to 34-11 with 3:40 to play in the first half. The play over the last 3 ½ minutes became less intense for the Cats, and Seattle outscored the Cats in that final segment of the first half 13-5 to cut the lead to only 15 points, 39-24 at the half.

In first half, UK had 43 possessions while SEATTLE had 41. Kentucky won the offensive rebounding battle over the first half, 7-5, and each team converted their second chance possessions into 5 second chance points. Kentucky was able to grab 43.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Seattle only grabbed 26.3% of its misses on the offensive boards. SEATTLE had an offensive efficiency of 0.528 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 1.000 for its 5 second chance possessions. UK had 0.944 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 0.714 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions. Kentucky controlled the boards, holding a 21-14 edge in total rebounds.

The free throw shooting in the first half was excellent for the Cats, 85.0% [17-20], but SEATTLE struggled from the line, only making 9 of 15 [60.0%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 10-25 overall [40.0%] and 2-4 [50%] from long range. For SEATTLE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a dismal 3-14 [21.4%], and from long range, Seattle hit 3 of 8 attempts [37.5%]. After starting the game with 5 turnovers in the first 4 minutes of the game, the Cats played the remaining 16 minutes of the half and only committed 3 more turnovers, one every 5.4 possessions in the half. The Cats forced Seattle into 11 turnovers for the half, one every 3.6 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 71 st point will win tonight. To reach that score, Ky needs 32 points, while SEATTLE needs 47 points. Kentucky scored its 71 st point on a Bradley free throw with 3:28 to play in the game. The first half pace is equivalent to 86 possessions for the game for Kentucky and 82 possessions for SEATTLE.

Second Half Summary:

In the second half, Kentucky much the same way as they started the first half, with turnovers on their first two possessions of the second half, but thereafter, the Cats score 11 points on their next 6 possessions to extend their lead back to 20 points, 50-30 at the under 16 TV timeout of the second half. The game has now settled into a routine and pattern, and the Cats extended their lead to 23 points, matching their largest lead of the game at the under 12 TV timeout, leading 57-34. The pace of the game is now mid 80s for both teams.

Following the timeout, the Cats continues to score effectively, but Seattle matched Kentucky's 10 points, as the Cat defense begins to slacken in the last 12 minutes just as it did on Wednesday evening. At the under 8 TV timeout, the Cats lead 67-44. At the under 4 timeout, the Cats lead has been cut to 19, 72-53. The final score is 82-63.

Rebounding is again proving to be this team's Achilles heel. UK scored its 82 points in a total of 83 possessions for the game, and SEATTLE scored its 63 points on a total of 89 possessions.

Kentucky lost the offensive rebounding edge, 11-15 [-4], and Seattle used their second chance possessions with greater effectiveness, winning the second chance points battle 15-11. SEATTLE had an offensive efficiency of 0.649 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had 0.986 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions. Kentucky controlled the boards, 40-33 in total rebounds, but the –4 offensive rebounding deficit is a major area of concern for this team. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 37.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds while SEATTLE was only able to convert 34.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK's free throw shooting dropped off slightly in the second half, and ended 27 for 35 for the game [77.1%]. SEATTLE made 16-27 [59.3%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 24-49 overall [49.0%] and 7-14 from long range [50.0%]. For SEATTLE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 13-37 [35.1%] and from long range, SEATTLE hit 7-21 [33,3%].

Post Game Analysis:

As noted prior to this game, UK's performance in these two exhibition games can provide an important glimpse into what may be in store for this team this season. The criteria I presented were:

•  At least 1.100 ppp offensive efficiency for the two games combined.

•  No more than 0.600 ppp defensive efficiency for the two games combined,

•  A Net Game Efficiency of at least 0.500 ppp for both games combined

UK fell short of the offensive target by about 0.042 ppp [1.058 ppp] and short of the defensive target by 0.113 ppp [0.713 ppp] for these two exhibition games. Areas of improvement include offensive rebounding and defensive efficiency.

Next Game On Schedule:

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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