07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

05
Reflections On Two Exhibition Games

Well, on the bright side, this team can shoot free throws very well, which is the first time in many years that has been the case. This team is efficient on offense, and should perform reasonably well on that end of the court this year, perhaps around 0.93 ppp on the season.

The areas of concern:

1. Turnovers: In these two games against weak opponents, the Cats averaged 1 turnover for every 4.6 possessions. As competition levels increase, that turnover rate is likely to fall more. Since 2000, the lowest turnover rate was one turnover every 5.4 possessions, last year and 2000.

2. Offensive Rebounding: In these two games, the opponents averaged 3.5 more offensive rebounds than the Cats. In recent years, the Cats have controlled the offensive boards more effectively against the exhibition opponents than for the entire season. Therefore, I expect this team to be consistently out rebounded on the offensive boards, perhaps by -4 to -6 per game. That is 4 to 6 bonus possessions, on average, for an opponent, and in close games, those bonus possessions can provide the margin of defeat.

3. Defensive efficiency: In these two games, the opponents scored 0.713 ppp, and in recent years, the Cats' defensive efficiency for the season has been about 0.1 ppp higher than the exhibition levels. This corresponds to an offensive efficiency of about 0.81 ppp for this season.

Given these early indicators for this season, this team could finish the 08 season with a NGE of about 0.12 ppp. This will be an improvement over last season [0.097 ppp], but not enough improvement to make the Cats a legitimate threat for a deep NCAA run in March, but Sweet 16 remains possible.

The pace of these two games has been slow. Clyde has said after each game that it was too slow for his liking, but nonetheless, history indicates that the Cats' pace for the upcoming season will be slower than its pace in the two exhibitions. I look for a year's pace around 78 possessions per game, which will be the slowest pace for a UK team since before Pitino arrived. If the pace is 78 possessions per game, with the projected efficiencies noted above, the average scoring would be 72.5 to 67.2 ppg.

One last observation based on these two games. In each game, the defensive intensity was very good for nearly all of the first half, and the first 8 minutes of the second half. However, in each game, the defense phoned in the final outcome over the last 12 minutes. Whether this is due to a general inability to maintain that intensity over the full 40 minutes or a tendency for this team to relax with a comfortable lead late in the game, this is not a good sign. These are 40 minute games, not 28 minute games Perhaps Clyde lacks quality depth to maintain the intensity on defense that he expects for the full game. In any case, this tendency to check out after the under 12 TV tiimeout in the second half bears close attention.

I prefer to not focus on individual players in these analyses, because the outcomes are really the product of total team contributions over the course of games, and individual contributions will vary game to game by wide margins, as Meeks demonstrated in these two games. However, it is clear that Patterson will anchor this team, and I hope that he will do so for more than one season.

Meeks literally exploded onto the 2007-08 scene against Pikeville College, and then disappeared [relatively speaking] last night with 11 ponts in 32 minutes. I believe that Meeks will be this team's primary outside threat, but inconsistency from long range has been a concern for him since before his arrival here last year.

Coury is enthusiastic, and plays that way, but his physical attributes are limited.

Bradley will continue to learn what Clyde expects from him, and his contributions this season should be significant.

Crawford continues to revert to his "I will do it myself" mode which will not endear him to his coach and will not contribute as much as hoped for to the team's success this year.

Legion is a freshman with great natural ability and talent, yet through two games he continues to have that "caught in the headlights" look. I believe he will get over this stage fright relatively soon, and begin contributing. He cracked that ice last night with 5 points in 14 minutes last night. I expect he will have a typical hot and cold freshman year, and should be a regular contributor by February, much the way Meeks was last year.

Porter played 24 minutes last night and posted a decent box score line, 9 points 3 assists, 2 steals, and 1 turnover. It appears that he can provide solid relief at the point, yet it was clear that he was not leading the team in the manner that Clyde expects despite this line.

Stevenson still has potential. However, his lack of size and strength make him vulnerable to powerful inside opponents.

The team misses Jasper, but I fear that he may be lost for the season by reading the tea leaves.

From the other end, Williams and Carter will not contribute to this team, and Harris simply looks lost on the court [and now may be injured with a stress fracture regardless of ability]. Stewart is a typical freshman, and the good news is that he will eventually become a sophomore. Perhaps he can fill a need at that time, but I don't see him contributing in any significant way this year.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Six

Go Back
Last Tune-Up For 08 Season