07-1 Preseason Forecast

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BASKETBALL

2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

06
Cats Win First Game of Gillispie Era

Pre-Game Analysis:

The two pre-season exhibitions are in the books and Coach Gillispie has had 3 additional days to work with his team prior to opening the 2007-08 season against Central Arkansas at Rupp Arena in what is probably the earliest start to a regular season of basketball for Kentucky ever, certainly the earliest in my memory.

While we have had two opportunities to see this team perform against a live opponent in real game conditions, Central Arkansas comes into this opener without the benefit of a single exhibition game. The 2007-08 Central Arkansas team is a complete unknown, and the only experiential data available for this team is its 2006-07 performance. Last year, Central Arkansas won 6 games and lost 20 games in route to its #311 RPI ranking against a schedule that was weaker than the average NCAA D1 schedule. It is inconceivable that Central Arkansas will improve sufficiently over last year's performance to offer much more resistance than exhibition foe CAU University provided the Cats on Saturday night.

I have compared the respective efficiency data for Kentucky and Central Arkansas from last season to forecast this game. Last season, both of these teams average just under 80 possessions per game, and solely on this basis, I expect this game to be played at a similar pace, around 80 possessions for each team. The Central Arkansas NGE for last season was –0.038 points per possession through a 26 game schedule with an RPI SOS value of 0.4536. Kentucky, on the other hand, posted a season long NGE of 0.089 ppp through a schedule with a RPI SOS of 0.6204.

On the basis of these comparisons, I predict a Kentucky victory with a score of 83-54, with a pre-game magic number of 70 points.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie started Bradley, Meeks, Coury, Patterson, and Porter, one senior, one freshman, and three sophomores. Coach Gillispie has replaced the injured Harris with Porter. The Cats' other senior, Joe Crawford, a starter last season is still healing from recent surgery.

The game begins with unable to make any of its 8 field goal attempt or 2 free throw attempts in the first segment, and the Cats scooted to an early 8-0 lead. During this segment, Mark Coury starts like a man with a mission, and near the end of the segment, Jared Carter entered the game for his first real taste of competition. Following the under 16 TV timeout, finally learned how to score, and cut the lead to 10-7 at the 13:04 mark, forcing a UK timeout, and 12-7 at the under 12 TV timeout.

Following the timeout, Mike Williams finally gets an opportunity to show the Big Blue Nation why he is a wildcat, and Williams responded with a rebound put back basket that extended the UK lead to 17-9. The teams went to the under 8 TV timeout with UK holding a 17-11 lead. In segment 4, the teams played even, each scoring only 3 points, to carry a 20-14 score to the under 4 TV timeout.

Thus far, the Cats are holding their own on the boards, 32-28 overall, and 9-6 on the offensive boards, producing the real margin in the game, with 9-4 lead on second chance points. Out of the timeout, a pair of Meeks free throws and a Crawford pull up 3 extended the lead to the longest of the night, 25-16, and by the halftime buzzer, the Cats had established a 14 point lead, 34-20.

In first half, UK had 42 possessions while CAU had 36. Kentucky won the offensive rebounding battle over the first half, 12-7. However, Kentucky made much more efficient use of its second chance possessions, scoring 11 points, to CAU's 4 points. Kentucky was able to grab 63.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while CAU only grabbed 33.3% of its misses on the offensive boards. CAU had an offensive efficiency of 0.552 ppp on its 29 first chance possessions and 0.571 for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 0.767 ppp on its 30 first chance possessions and 0.917 ppp on its 12 second chance possessions. Kentucky controlled the boards, holding a 26-14 edge in total rebounds.

The free throw shooting in the first half was excellent for the Cats, 87.5% [8-9], and CAU was equally strong from the line, making 9 of 11 [81.8%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 12-30 overall [40.0%] and 3-9 [33.3%] from long range. For CAU, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a dismal 4-16 [25.0%], and from long range, CAU hit 1 of 9 attempts [11.1%]. The Cats committed 8 turnovers in the half, one every 5.2 possessions in the half. The Cats forced CAU into only 6 turnovers for the half, one every 6.0 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 62 nd point will win tonight. To reach that score, Ky needs 28 points, while CAU needs 42 points. Kentucky scored its 62 nd point on a Benson 3 pointer with about 3:40 to play in the game. The first half pace is equivalent to 84 possessions for the game for Kentucky and 72 possessions for CAU.

Second Half Summary:

Kentucky and CAU exchanged baskets during the first segment of the second half, with Kentucky holding to a 43-30 lead at the under 16 TV timeout. The most significant event of this segment was a foul and technical foul by Bradley, his 4 th foul. In the second segment, the Cats out scored CAU 6-1 to extend the lead to 49-31, the longest lead of the night. The pace remains in the vicinity of 80 possessions, and the Cats continue to hold a +4 offensive rebounding advantage. In the third segment, both teams only managed to score 4 points as either both defenses are outstanding, or both offenses are stagnant.

In the fourth segment, the Cats outscored the CAU 8-2. The Cats closed out this game and delivered the first victory of the Billy Gillispie Era of Kentucky basketball 67-40.

Tonight, Kentucky dominated the boards with a 44-29 advantage in total rebounds and a 18-15 advantage on the offensive boards. UK scored its 67 points in a total of 79 possessions for the game, and CAU scored its 40 points on a total of 77 possessions.

CAU used their 15 second chance possessions to score 9 second chance points. In contract, the Cats used their 18 offensive rebounds to post 18 second chance points. CAU had an offensive efficiency of 0.500 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 0.600 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had 0.803 ppp on its 61 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 18 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 56.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while CAU was able to convert 36.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK's free throw shooting dropped off slightly in the second half, and ended 11 for 16 for the game [68.8%]. CAU made 17-21 [81.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 26-55 overall [47.3%] and 4-10 from long range [40.0%]. For CAU, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 7-28 [25.0%] and from long range, CAU hit 3-22 [13.6%].

Post Game Analysis:

Tonight, Mark Coury came to play, Joe Crawford was effective during his limited playing time, and both Carter and Harris logged some minutes for the first time. The Cats survived Patterson and Bradley having foul plagued games. The Cats worked the offensive boards tonight very well. Turnovers, one for every 4.9 possessions is too many for a great team, but the defensive effort tonight was very solid for the entire game, holding CAU to only 0.519 points per possession. However, the offensive was inefficient the entire game, ending with an efficiency of 0.848 ppp.

Next Game On Schedule:

Wednesday night, again at Rupp Arena, the Cats will face Gardner-Webb University in the second round of the 2K Classic.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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