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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

07
Cats Lay Two Eggs In One Game
And Both Were Rotten To the Core

Pre-Game Analysis:

Last night, the Kentucky defense attacked from the opening tip to the final buzzer and held Central Arkansas to only 40 points and 20% shooting for the entire game. Central Arkansas is starting only its second season of D1 competition. Gardner Webb, tonight's opponent has more experience at the D1 level, and has played several games in marquee venues, so Rupp Arena should not provide the same impact on Gardner Webb as it did on Central Arkansas.

The Central Arkansas game also saw a revitalized rebounding effort by the Cats as they converted over 56% of their misses into second chance opportunities, and they converted those second chances at a nice efficiency. The downside of the Central Arkansas game was a sluggish offense that only scored 49 points on its 61 first chance possessions, and committed turnovers once every 4.9 possessions.

Gardner Webb earned the right to challenge the Cats by defeating Alabama A&M yesterday 69-53. In that winning effort, Gardner Webb only shot 36% from the field, and had an offensive efficiency in winning of only 0.719 points per possession, but they held Alabama A&M to only 0.602 ppp. Just as the Cats' game was marked more by effective defense than an unstoppable offense, so was the Gardner Webb victory on Tuesday. Does this point toward more of the same for Wednesday's second round match up?

I have compared the respective efficiency data for Kentucky and Gardner Webb from last season to forecast this game. Last season, both of these teams average just under 80 possessions per game, and solely on this basis, I expect this game to be played at a similar pace, around 80 possessions for each team. The Gardner Webb NGE for last season was –0.095 points per possession through a 30 game schedule with an RPI SOS value of 0.4920. Kentucky, on the other hand, posted a season long NGE of 0.089 ppp through a schedule with a RPI SOS of 0.6204.

On the basis of these comparisons, I predict a Kentucky victory with a score of 81-57, with a pre-game magic number of 70 points.

First Half Summary:

Unable to watch and track this game in real time tonight due to previous commitments.

At the half, the Cats trail for the first time in this young season, 27-38 after allowing GW to sprint out to a 14-0 lead in the first 5 minutes of the game. The teams played essentially even terms for the remainder of the half. Kentucky's play was marked by poor defense, poor offense, and too many turnovers.

In first half, UK had 39 possessions while GWU had 41. GWU won the offensive rebounding battle over the first half, 5-4, and GWU made much more efficient use of its second chance possessions, scoring 7 points, to UK's 4 points. Kentucky was able to grab only 23.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GWU only grabbed 25.0% of its misses on the offensive boards. GWU had an offensive efficiency of 0.861 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 1.400 for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had 0.657 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions. Kentucky won a slim margin of +1 on total rebounds, 19-18 for the first half

The free throw shooting in the first half was excellent for the Cats, 100.0% [4-4], and GWU made 3 of 4 [75.0%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 11-28 overall [39.3%] and 1-4 [25.0%] from long range. For GWU, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 10-22 [45.5%], and from long range, GWU hit 5 of 12 attempts [41.7%]. The Cats committed 9 turnovers in the half, one every 4.3 possessions in the half. The Cats forced GWU into only 5 turnovers for the half, one every 8.2 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 71 st point will win tonight. To reach that score, Ky needs 44 points, while GWU needs 33 points. GWU scored its 71 st point on a free throw with 3:20 to play in the game to put GWU up by 16 points, 71-55. The first half pace is equivalent to 78 possessions for the game for Kentucky and 82 possessions for GWU.

Second Half Summary:

Could not watch this game and track the game in real time. Kentucky loses its first game of the Billy Gillispie era to Gardner Webb, 75-60. Tonight, Kentucky lost the battle of the boards 37-35, and won the offensive rebounding battles 11-6. UK scored its 68 points in a total of 84 possessions for the game, and GWU scored its 84 points on a total of 81 possessions.

GWU used their 6 second chance possessions to score 7 second chance points. In contract, the Cats used their 11 offensive rebounds to post 8 second chance points. GWU had an offensive efficiency of 1.027 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 1.167 ppp for its 6 second chance possessions. UK had 0.822 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 0.727 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed 26.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GWU was able to convert 20.0% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK's free throw shooting dropped off slightly in the second half, and ended 18 for 20 for the game [90.0%]. GWU made 24-31 [77.4%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 22-62 overall [35.5%] and 6-19 from long range [31.6%]. For GWU, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was 18-32 [56.3%] and from long range, GWU hit 8-17 [47.1%].

Post Game Analysis:

This game is an embarrassment for the entire team, and its coach. However, it also serves a more useful purpose for the future of this program because it has revealed to the entire world exactly what Coach Gillispie has been seeing with his own eyes in the privacy of the Kentucky pick up games, boot camp, and practices since October 12. Here are the numbers from last night, and a pitiful sight they are:

Pace: Kentucky 84 possessions, GWU 81 possessions. For the game, Kentucky gained a +5 advantage from its offensive rebounding advantage [11-6] but gave up a bonus possession to GWU at the end of the first half with very poor ball and clock management at the end of the first half, that resulted in the Cats not getting a final shot and giving GWU an additional two points just prior to the halftime break.

Offensive Efficiency: 0.810 points per possession. Recall that the NCAA D1 average is 0.860 ppp, and the opponent in this game, GWU, last season posted a losing record and finished #266 in the RPI. An offensive performance well below the NCAA D1 average against a team that at best will be NCAA average this season, is inexcusable. However, this offensive performance has not occurred in a vacuum. The previous game, against an even weaker opponent, Central Arkansas, was a similarly dismal offensive effort, with an efficiency of only 0.848 ppp. Therefore, it is becoming clear that this team is not an offensive juggernaut, and perhaps never will be.

Defensive Efficiency: Last night, in the first half that saw GWU establish its winning margin in the first 4 minutes of the game [14-0 opening run] also saw GWU score at will against the Kentucky defense, posting an efficiency of 0.927 ppp in the first half alone. However, the previous night, against a much lesser opponent, the Kentucky Defense appears solid, only allowing CAU to score at a rate of 0.519 ppp. Therefore, at the half, staunch Kentucky fans could at least hold out some reasonable hope that the second half could provide opportunities for the Cats to pull a win from the jaws of defeat on the strength of a sustained and solid defensive performance for the second 20 minutes.

What a folly such thoughts proved to be. Not to be outdone by its first half performance, the Cats mailed in the second half at the defensive end and simply did not even show up to play, allowing the GWU team to score even more at will than it had in the first half, 1.150 ppp for the second half, 1.037 ppp for the entire game. Please recall that any offensive performance exceeding 1 point per possession against a Kentucky team means that the Kentucky team played absolutely NO DEFENSE.

Graded Performances: As many of you know, I started assigning grades for each game performance, offensively and defensively, during the past season. The grades are based upon the actual game performances as compared to the pre-game predicted offensive and defensive performances. This game represents a sad, and dismal first. Kentucky's offensive and defensive performances earned failing grades, E's, for the first time since I began using this analytical technique.

Next Game On Schedule:

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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Cats Win First Game of Gillispie Era

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