07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

08
Cats Look To Rebound From Embarrassing Loss
Against Liberty

Pre-Game Analysis:

Throughout the off season, the Big Blue Nation understood that the current Kentucky roster was short handed on the front line, and even Patrick Patterson's commitment in May did little to eliminate the front court concerns. Patterson would be supported by Stevenson who got precious little playing time last year as a freshman, Harris who saw even less real action, injury plagued Carter, and two freshmen projects, Williams and Stewart. Help on the front line was essential.

But, the Kentucky back court was loaded, or so the thinking went.

Surely, senior guards Crawford and Bradley would respond in a very positive manner to the opportunity to make huge contributions in their final year of college basketball, and without that type of great year, what would probably be their last opportunity to play organized basketball under the bright lights. Add to them the rising star of last year's team, Meeks, and Cat fans everywhere expected a solid back court that would provide this team with experience, poise, scoring, and perimeter defensive pressure. Add to these three “known” commodities highly touted recruit Legion, and the experience that Jasper brings to the court, most Cat fans believed the back court would be this team's strength.

Two games into this season, we have been surprised on many fronts. Certainly, the lack of front court depth has been verified. Last year's walk on, Mark Coury has fought hard to earn a scholarship, and has started both of these games. Inexperienced Harris also earned a starting role, but has been sidelined by a stress fracture. The play of Stewart and Stevenson have been as bad, if not worse, than feared. Williams has not impressed new coach Billy Gillispie in practice, but has shown a flash or two of potential during his limited game appearances. That leave Patterson, and as expected, he is the real deal, but he can't carry the full front line load on his shoulders, not many freshmen could.

The backcourt has been very disappointing. Crawford has been slowed by his recovery from a late knee surgery, and Bradley continues to try to do it all himself. Meeks has been sidelined by a stress fracture, and Jasper has never returned from a knee surgery, and may not return this season. Legion has shown great potential in the early going, but has only received limited playing time to date. Porter has limited utility and walk on Kerry Benson has seen some playing time, obviously a reward for practice effort.

All of this has added up to a Kentucky team off to one of its worst starts in recent memory with a yawning win over Central Arkansas [2007 RPI 317] and a shocking home loss to Gardner Webb [2007 RPI 265] by 16 points, eliminating the anticipated trip to New York City's Madison Square Garden to play Connecticut and either Memphis or Oklahoma where most Cat fans believed we would learn “how good” this team could be. Well, Gardner Webb provided that answer without a trip to the Big Apple, no very good … yet.

Coach Gillispie is well aware of the deficiencies that exist in his first UK basketball team. Depth and talent level were clearly understood going into this season, but the shocker of all shockers is the absence of a winning attitude and leadership from the team's two senior guards. The elimination of the New York trip has provided Coach Gillispie with two full weeks for uninterrupted practice and time to hit the recruiting trail with greater recognition of the gaping holes that he must fill. On the latter front, Coach has secured two top recruits for next year's freshman class, Liggins and Miller, and based on unconfirmed reports floating around the internet on Sunday, November 18, 2007, may have secured some immediate help for the Cats' empty frontline with Leonard Washington possibly joining the team at the end of the fall semester. The former front has occurred behind closed doors, and on Wednesday night, fans will learn whether the shocking loss coupled with the intensified practice regime will pay dividends for this team when the Cats take the floor for the third time, against Liberty University.

Liberty University is not a household name for major college basketball. Last year, Liberty finished with a record of 11-17 through a schedule having a RPI SOS of 0.4372. Through 4 games this season, Liberty is 1-3, their only win coming against Conference USA foe East Carolina by 2 points on the road. While the absolute values of current RPI rankings and RPI SOS values have very little significance this early in the season, their relative values, one team to another may be significant. After two games, the Cats are 1-1, with an RPI ranking of 141 and a RPI SOS value of 0.6102 Liberty on the other hand carries a current RPI ranking of #261 and a RPI SOS of 0.3600.

Kentucky averages 81.5 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 80.0 possessions per game. Liberty currently averages 74.5 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 74.5 possessions per game. Liberty has been getting as many offensive rebounds per game as its opponents this season while UK stands at +4 per game. UK grabs 39.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Liberty grabs a well below average 23.3% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents average 32.3% of their misses as offensive rebounds while Liberty only allows its opponents 25.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.8 possessions, and Liberty averages one turnover for each 4.4 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 4.6 opponent possessions while Liberty forces one turnover for each 5.0 opponent possessions. Liberty 's offensive efficiency has been 0.758 ppp and 57.3 points per game. Liberty 's defensive efficiency has been 0.869 ppp while holding opponents to 64.8 ppg. Their NGE is –0.101 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a slightly higher offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.828 ppp while scoring about 67.5 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.775 ppp on about 62.0 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.053 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5000 for Liberty and 0.5729 for UK .

Based on this performance data for Liberty and UK to date, which includes two regular season games for UK and 4 regular season games for Liberty, Kentucky is a 34-point favorite, 80-46 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 78 possessions for UK and 77 possessions for Liberty . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 1.026 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.597 ppp.. The pre-game magic number is 64 points.

First Half Summary:

Legion, Patterson, Porter, Coury, and Bradley get the nod from Coach Gillispie to start this game. No Crawford, following pre-game comments by the Coach that Crawford must improve in all areas of the game.

Unlike the previous games this season, the Cats played the first segment of this game without committing a single turnover. Prior games have seen 4 or more Turnovers in the first game segment 3 of the four games. In contrast, the Cats streaked out to an early 12-2 lead at the first timeout, called by Liberty at 14:57 following an 8 point Kentucky run. In first segment, the pace was below 80 possessions, as anticipated, and Kentucky has added great shooting, 5-7, to the great protection of its possessions.

The Cats have been unable to sustain the fast start, and In the second and third segments, the Cats only outscored Liberty 4-2 on its 6 possessions. The Cats also committed 2 turnovers during those segments. After 3 segments, the pace is about 65 possessions, which is very slow, and the Cats' offensive efficiency has been 1.026 ppp and defensive has been 0.286 ppp.

The fourth segment was worse than the second and third, and the Cats effectively played even with Liberty for 12 minutes and nursed a 9 point lead, 24-15, into the under 4 TV timeout. In the final segment, the Cats reasserted itself finally, and closed on a 12-6 run for a 36-21 halftime lead.

The pace early is about 68 possessions for Kentucky and 80 possessions for Liberty on the strength of its 12-5 edge on the offensive boards. Turnovers are even at 5 each, and Kentucky is losing the rebounding battles and offensive rebounding battles, 18-19 in total boards and 5-12 on the offensive boards. Kentucky shot the ball well during the first half, 15-27 [55.6%] overall and a fine 4-8 [50.0%] from long range. Liberty shot the ball poorly, 8-32 [25.0%] overall and only 1-15 [6.7%] from beyond the arc.

Liberty scored its 21 points on 40 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.5253 ppp. Liberty had an offensive efficiency of 0.321 ppp on its 28 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. Kentucky scored its 36 points on 33 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.091 ppp. UK had 1.036 ppp on its 28 first chance possessions and 1.400 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions. Kentucky had an overall efficiency of 0.790 ppp for the first half.

In the first half, UK was 2 for 3 [66.7%] and Liberty was 4-6 [66.7%] from the free throw line. UK committed 5 turnovers in the half, one for every 6.6 possessions and Liberty committed 5 turnovers for the half, one for every 8.0 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 65 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 29 points, while Liberty needs 44 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 68 possessions for the game for UK and 80 possessions for Liberty. Kentucky scored its 65 th point on a lob dunk with about 7:45 to play in the game and the Cats holding to a 66-37 lead. Kentucky played out the final 8 minutes to secure the victory, 81-46.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats open the second half by losing the first segment, 6-7 on a pace that included only 7 possessions for the Cats, and 6 for Liberty. However, in the second segment, the Cats extended their lead to 19 points, 52-33 at the under 12 TV timeout. The pace remains in the low to mid 70s for this game. The Cats secured the win in the third segment of the game, scoring its 65 th point on a Patterson dunk with about 7:45 to play, just prior to the under 8 TV timeout.

In the fourth segment of the half, the Cats continued to extend their lead, taking a 78-46 lead to the under 4 TV timeout. The Cats played out the final segment, as Coach Gillispie emptied his bench for the last 1 ½ minutes for an 80-54 victory.

Kentucky won the boards for total rebounds, 38-30, but Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards, 11-15, -4. Kentucky converted its 11 second chance opportunities into 14 second chance points and Liberty used its 15 second chance opportunities to post 14 second chance points.

Liberty scored its 54 points on 79 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.684 ppp. Kentucky scored its 80 points on 76 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.053 ppp. Liberty had an offensive efficiency of 0.625 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 0.933 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.015 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 1.273 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a strong 42.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Liberty was able to convert an above average 35.7% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit an above average 17-20 for the game [85.0%] from the free throw line today and Liberty made 10-17 [58.8%]. UK's field goal shooting was very strong for the game, shooting 29-51 [51.7%] overall and a poor 5-17 [29.4%] from long range. Liberty's field goal shooting overall was about 33.3% [19-57], and a cold 6-28 [21/4%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 13 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.8 possessions. Liberty committed 14 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.6 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted an 80-46 score [80-54] in a game with 77 to 78 possessions [79 and 76]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 1.026 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 1.053 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.596 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.684 ppp.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a rare “D+” respectively as shown below:

UK KANSAS@NCAA2 GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats play next on Saturday night, November 24, 2007 when they will entertain Texas Southern at Rupp.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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