07-1 Preseason Forecast

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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

09
Cats Want to Continue Path To Improved Play

Pre-Game Analysis:

When the Cats defeated Liberty last Wednesday night by 26 points, they began their climb from the depths of despair that swallowed them during the Gardner Webb game. I had hoped to see more improvement that the Cats displayed, but tonight's matchup against Texas Southern is another opportunity to demonstrate additional improvement as a team.

Texas Southern University is not a household name for major college basketball. Last year, Texas Southern finished with a record of 11-17 through a schedule having a RPI SOS of 0.4279. Through 4 games this season, Texas Southern is 1-3, their only win coming against Texas A&M Corpus Chris by 8 points on the road. While the absolute values of current RPI rankings and RPI SOS values have very little significance this early in the season, their relative values, one team to another may be significant. After three games, the Cats are 2-1, with an RPI ranking of 177 and a RPI SOS value of 0.5046. Texas Southern on the other hand carries a current RPI ranking of #72 and a RPI SOS of 0.6428.

Kentucky averages 79.7 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 79.8 possessions per game. Texas Southern currently averages 74.5 possessions per game and its opponents currently averages 80.8 possessions per game. Texas Southern has been getting outrebounded on the offensive glass by 5 per game as its opponents this season while UK stands even on the offensive glass. UK grabs 40.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Texas Southern grabs a well below average 19.7% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents average 33.6% of their misses as offensive rebounds while Texas Southern only allows its opponents 36.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.8 possessions, and Texas Southern averages one turnover for each 6.0 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 4.9 opponent possessions while Texas Southern forces one turnover for each 4.8 opponent possessions. Texas Southern 's offensive efficiency has been 0.827 ppp and 66.8 points per game. Texas Southern 's defensive efficiency has been 0.924 ppp while holding opponents to 79.3 ppg. Their NGE is –0.098 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a slightly higher offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.900 ppp while scoring about 71.7 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.743 ppp on about 59.3 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.156 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5046 for UK and 0.6428 for Texas Southern .

Based on this performance data for Texas Southern and UK to date, which includes three regular season games for UK and 4 regular season games for Texas Southern, Kentucky is a 15-point favorite, 77-62 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 83 possessions for UK and 80 possessions for Texas Southern . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.928 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.775 ppp.

A game NGE greater than 0.22 ppp will be an impressive victory while a game NGE less than 0.08 ppp will be disappointing. The predicted game NGE is 0.15 ppp. The pre-game magic number is 71 points.

First Half Summary:

In his pre-game comments, Coach Gillispie says that the Cats must improve in every area of the game. Coach Gillispie will reward AJ Stewart's and Joe Crawford's fine performances on Wednesday with their first starts in tonight's game. Stewart and Crawford will be joining Bradley, Patterson, and Coury. Alex Legion and Michael Porter have been relegated to supporting roles off the bench for this game.

The Cats come out of the gates outscoring TSU 18-5 while shooting 67% from the field and holding TSU to only 2 for 6 to start the game. By the under 12 TV timeout, the score was 21-7, and the pace is about 70 to 75 possessions, somewhat slower than anticipated by the pre-game analysis. The pace and the scoring efficiency has settled into more customary territory, and the Cats added another point to their lead, 28-11 at the under 8 TV timeout.

In the fourth segment of the first half, the Cats again expanded their lead to 34-15, 19 points, and the pace of the game remains in the 70 to 75 range for both teams. The Cats are shooting an extremely high percentage, but that offensive performance is being tempered by a total of 10 turnovers in the first 16 minutes of the game, one for every 2.9 possessions. The teams close out the first half with the Cats leading by 25 points, 43-18.

The pace early is about 70 possessions for Kentucky and 74 possessions for Texas Southern on the strength of TSU's5-3 edge on the offensive boards. Turnovers are even at 10 each, and Kentucky is winning the overall rebounding battle 15-9. Kentucky shot the ball well during the first half, 17-22 [77.3%] overall and a fine 6-10 [60.0%] from long range. Texas Southern shot the ball poorly, 5-23 [21.7%] overall and only 1-8 [12.5%] from beyond the arc.

Texas Southern scored its 18 points on 37 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.486 ppp. Texas Southern had an offensive efficiency of 0.500 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 0.400 ppp for its 5 second chance possessions. Kentucky scored its 43 points on 35 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.229 ppp. UK had 1.281 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp on its 3 second chance possessions.

In the first half, UK was 3 for 6 [50.0%] and Texas Southern was 7-8 [87.5%] from the free throw line. UK committed 10 turnovers in the half, one for every 3.5 possessions and Texas Southern committed 10 turnovers for the half, one for every 3.7 possessions.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 74 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 31 points, while Texas Southern needs 56 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 70 possessions for the game for UK and 74 possessions for Texas Southern. Kentucky scored its 74th point on a Crawford free throw with about 6:25 to play in the game and the Cats holding to a 74-30 lead. Kentucky played out the final 6 1/2 minutes to secure the victory, 80-36.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats control the first segment of the second half, outscoring TSU 7-2 to extend its lead to 50-20 at the under 16 TV timeout. The Cats extend their lead to 35 points at the under 12 TV timeout, 61-26. At the under 8 TV timeout, the Cats have extended their lead to 40 points, 69-29 in a display of total dominance. The only negative that I can identify relative to this performance has been the turnovers and offensive rebounding. At 80-30, the Cats simply played out the final 4 minutes of the game to secure commanding 83-35 victory.

Kentucky won the boards for total rebounds, 33-30, but Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards, 8-13, -5. Kentucky converted its 8 second chance opportunities into 7 second chance points and Texas Southern used its 13 second chance opportunities to post 6 second chance points.

Texas Southern scored its 35 points on 81 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.432 ppp. Kentucky scored its 83 points on 75 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.107 ppp. Texas Southern had an offensive efficiency of 0.426 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 0.462 ppp for its 13 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.134 ppp on its 67 first chance possessions and 0.875 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a strong 39.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Texas Southern was able to convert an above average 34.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

For the first time this season, UK shot poorly from the free throw line, 7-13 for the game [53.8%] and Texas Southern made 13-19 [68.4%]. UK's field goal shooting was very strong for the game, shooting 33-54 [61.1%] overall and a strong 10-22 [45.5%] from long range. Texas Southern's field goal shooting overall was about 20.8% [10-48], and a cold 2-20 [10.0%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 15 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.0 possessions. Texas Southern committed 23 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 3.5 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted an 77-62 score [83-35] in a game with 80 to 83 possessions [75 and 81]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.928 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 1.107 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.775 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.432 ppp.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B+” and a rare “A”respectively as shown below:

UK - Texas Southern GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats play next on Tuesday night, November 27, 2007 when they will entertain Stony Brook at Rupp.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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