07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

10
Cats Fair Test In Final Tune Up
For Real Season That Starts on December 1

Pre-Game Analysis:

On Saturday night, the Cats turned in their best overall performance against any opponent in at least 3 years as they demolished Texas Southern 83-35. The game NGE was nearly 0.6 ppp, and the game defensive efficiency was well under 0.500 ppp. The last time that the Cats turned in such a strong offensive and defensive performance in the same game was about 3 years ago when they defeated Morehead 71-40.

For sure, no one believes that Texas Southern [or Morehead in 2004] are even close to the level of competition that the Cats will face during the upcoming season. However, if it were so easy, or so common to demolish any opponent the way the Cats dismantled Texas Southern last night, then why don't the Cats turn in these types of games whenever they play such cupcakes?

The Cats demonstrated to their coach, and their fans, that they are “getting it” and the defensive pressure was solid and sustained. The offensive performance was nearly as impressive as the defensive effort but for the high frequency of turnovers, a trend that seems characteristic of this early season, one turnover every 5.6 possessions. Finally, this team continues to struggle on the boards against clearly inferior opponents. Nonetheless, this team has dug out of the huge hole it found itself in following the embarrassing loss to Gardner Webb about 3 weeks ago.

Stony Brook University is not a household name for major college basketball. Last year, Stony Brook finished with a record of 9-20 through a schedule having a RPI SOS of 0.4590. Through 5 games this season, Stony Brook is 0-5. While the absolute values of current RPI rankings and RPI SOS values have very little significance this early in the season, their relative values, one team to another may be significant. After four games, the Cats are 3-1, with an RPI ranking of 169 and a RPI SOS value of 0.4730. Stony Brook on the other hand carries a current RPI ranking of #328 and a RPI SOS of 0.3844.

Kentucky averages 78.6 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 80.0 possessions per game. Stony Brook currently averages 77.8 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 76.5 possessions per game. Stony Brook has been out rebounding its opponents on the offensive glass by 1.3 per game this season while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -1.4 per game. UK grabs 38.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Stony Brook grabs an above average 35.1% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents average 33.8% of their misses as offensive rebounds while Stony Brook only allows its opponents only 31.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.6 possessions, and Stony Brook averages one turnover for each 5.5 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 4.4 opponent possessions while Stony Brook forces one turnover for each 6.0 opponent possessions. Stony Brook 's offensive efficiency has been 0.735 ppp and 57.2 points per game. Stony Brook 's defensive efficiency has been 0.902 ppp while holding opponents to 69.0 ppg. Their NGE is –0.167 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a much higher offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.948 ppp while scoring about 74.5 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.666 ppp on about 53.3 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.282 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5046 for UK and 0.4100 for Stony Brook .

Based on this performance data for Stony Brook and UK to date, which includes four regular season games for UK and five regular season games for Stony Brook, Kentucky is a 47-point favorite, 87-40 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 78 possessions for UK and 79 possessions for Stony Brook . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 1.115 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.506 ppp..

A game NGE greater than 0.65 ppp will be an impressive victory while a game NGE less than 0.50 ppp will be disappointing. The predicted game NGE is 0.60 ppp. The pre-game magic number is 65 points.

First Half Summary:

Last game, Coach Gillispie gave AJ Stewart and Joe Crawford their first starts of the season, joining Bradley, Patterson and Coury. Tonight, Coach Gillispie decides to make yet another change, exchanging Alex Legion for A J Stewart.

On Saturday, the Cats opened the game ablaze, taking an 18-5 lead to the bench at the first timeout for TV. Tonight is the absolute opposite, with the Cats missing their first four shots and committing two early turnovers to trail 4-2 at the under 16 TV timeout. The Cats are playing very poorly, and the only good news to emerge from the second game segment is that they were not outscored, but the Cats have yet won a single game segment against Stony Brook. The score stands at 6-4 in Stony Brook's favor in a game with a pace of about 65 possessions for the entire game.

In the third segment, the Cats had a mini-explosion, outscoring Stony Brook 6-4, to tie the score at 10. The psychic rewards of a 6-4 segment victory carried over to the fourth mini-game, and the Cats charged into their first lead of the night, 14-12 at the under 4 TV timeout. The pace of the game is now about 75 possessions for the game, and the Cats hold a 7-5 advantage on the offensive boards and a 6-0 advantage on second chance points. The Cats closed the half with Crawford and Bradley on the bench nursing two fouls each, and Harris and Stevenson led a late half charge to take a 26-14 lead to the locker room.

The pace early is about 78 possessions for Kentucky and 74 possessions for Stony Brook on the strength of Kentucky's 7-6 edge on the offensive boards. Kentukcy committed 10 turnovers in the first half, one for every 4.0 possessions. Stony Brook committed 12 turnovers, one for each 3.0 possessions. Kentucky is winning the overall rebounding battle 19-16. Kentucky shot the ball poorly during the first half, 11-27 [40.7%] overall and a poor 0-5 [0.0%] from long range. Stony Brook shot the ball even more poorly, 6-22 [27.3%] overall and 0-3 [0.0%] from beyond the arc.

Stony Brook scored its 14 points on 37 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.378 ppp. Stony Brook had an offensive efficiency of 0.452 ppp on its 31 first chance possessions and 0.000 ppp for its 6 second chance possessions. Kentucky scored its 26 points on 39 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.667 ppp. UK had 0.625 ppp on its 32 first chance possessions and 0.857 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions.

In the first half, UK was 4 for 6 [66.7%] and Stony Brook was 2-5 [40.0%] from the free throw line.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 47 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 21 points, while Stony Brook needs 33 points. The first half pace is equivalent to 78 possessions for the game for UK and 74 possessions for Stony Brook. Kentucky scored its 47th point on a Patterson basket with about 5 ½ minutes to play in the game and the Cats holding to a 47-39 lead. Kentucky played out the final 5 1/2 minutes to secure the victory, 62 - 52.

Second Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie recognized the contributions that Harris and Stevenson made to the team, and started each of them for the second half. The Cats commit 3 turnovers during the first segment of the second half, and play even with Stony Brook again, 31-19 at the under 16 TV timeout. At the under 12 timeout, the teams are stumbling and bumbling their way to complete a game that will never appear in any hall of fame library, with the Cats extending their 12 point halftime lead to 13 points, 36-23. The pace remains in the low to mid 70s for the game, and Kentucky's 17 turnovers in a total of only 52 possessions is the story of this game. At the under 8 TV timeout, the misery continues, as Stony Brook scored 7 points in a row to cut the lead to 11 points, 41-30, and 43-32 at the timeout. Kentucky now has 20 turnovers for the game, one turnover for every 3.2 possessions. The game is continuing in the same vein as it has been since the opening tip, and with 3:54 to play, UK is nursing a 51-43 lead. The Cats hang on for this extremely ugly victory, 62-52.

Kentucky won the boards for total rebounds, 40-31, but Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards, 14-15, -1. Kentucky converted its 14 second chance opportunities into 18 second chance points and Stony Brook used its 15 second chance opportunities to post 8 second chance points.

Stony Brook scored its 52 points on 84 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.619 ppp. Kentucky scored its 62 points on 82 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.747 ppp. Stony Brook had an offensive efficiency of 0.638 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 0.533 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.647 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 1.286 ppp on its 14 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a strong 46.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while Stony Brook was able to convert an above average 36.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

For the second game in a row, UK shot poorly from the free throw line, 11-16 for the game [68.8%] and Stony Brook made 11-20 [55.0%]. UK's field goal shooting was about average for the game, shooting 25-52 [48.1%] overall, but only made 1 of 10 attempts [10.0%] from beyond the arc. Stony Brook's field goal shooting overall was about 34.5% [19-55], and a good 3-7 [42.9%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 23 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 3.6 possessions. Stony Brook committed 19 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.4 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted an 87-40 score [62-52] in a game with 78 to 79 possessions [82 and 84]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 1.115 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.747 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.506 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.619 ppp.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “E” and a rare “D+” respectively as shown below:

UK – Stony Brook GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats play next on Saturday afternoont, December 1, 2007 when they will entertain #1 North Carolina at Rupp.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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Cats Demolish Texas Southern