07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

11
The Cupcakes Are Gone And It Is Time To Play Ball
Tarheel Offense Overpowers Cats' Defense

Pre-Game Analysis:

In October, the football Wildcats hosted the #1 ranked football team, LSU at Commonwealth Stadium, and before that evening ended, the Wildcats posted what may have been the greatest single football win for the UK program since the days when Bear Bryant walked the Kentucky sidelines. On Saturday, December 1, 2007, the Basketball Cats host the #1 ranked North Carolina Tarheels at Rupp Arena. To illustrate the extent to which the former coach turned this program on its head, a Cat basketball victory in this game seems more improbable than a Cat football win against LSU seemed on the Friday night before that game nearly 2 months ago.

True, the basketball Cats have turned in a couple of stinkers during this young season. But that does not deter my anticipation for this game any more than my enthusiasm was deterred prior to the great win over LSU.

The night before the LSU game, a friend called to offer me a ticket, and I was fortunate to be present for that great game. Today, a friend offered TheProfessor a ticket for the UNC basketball game. Upon learning of my opportunity to witness LSU, I wrote to my best UK fan friends that I would be there when the Cats make history, and they did. Tonight, I again write that I will be at Rupp when the Cats make history, and I believe they will.

The cupcakes have been consumed, and we all realize that a couple of them were spoiled and created a great case of indigestion for the Big Blue Nation. Now it is time for the main courses of the basketball non-conference season. UNC on December 1, and IU on December 8.

Last year, North Carolina finished 31-7, losing to Georgetown in the Elite Eight in Overtime. The UNC RPI SOS for 2007 was 0.6035. Through 6 games this season, UNC is undefeated and generally ranked as the team to beat in the 2007-08 season. While the absolute values of current RPI rankings and RPI SOS values have very little significance this early in the season, their relative values, one team to another may be significant. After five games, the Cats are 4-1, with an RPI ranking of 184 and a RPI SOS value of 0.4358. UNC on the other hand carries a current RPI ranking of #27 and a RPI SOS of 0.5266.

Kentucky averages 79.5 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 80.8 possessions per game. UNC currently averages 90.8 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 87.8 possessions per game. UNC has been out rebounding its opponents on the offensive glass by 3.0 per game this season while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -1.3 per game. UK grabs 40.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while UNC grabs an above average 37.5% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 34.4% of their misses as offensive rebounds while UNC only allows its opponents only 28.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each 5.0 possessions, and UNC averages one turnover for each 6.2 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 4.4 opponent possessions while UNC forces one turnover for each 4.5 opponent possessions. UNC 's offensive efficiency has been 0.968 ppp and 87.8 points per game. UNC 's defensive efficiency has been 0.767 ppp while holding opponents to 67.3 ppg. Their NGE is 0.201 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a lower offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.906 ppp while scoring about 72.0 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.656 ppp on about 53.0 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.250 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.4358 for UK and 0.5266 for UNC .

Based on this performance data for UNC and UK to date, which includes five regular season games for UK and five regular season games for UNC, Kentucky is a 2-point favorite, 71-69 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 84 possessions for UK and 86 possessions for UNC . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.845 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.802 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.025 ppp.

A game NGE greater than 0.075 ppp will be an impressive victory while a game NGE less than –0.025 ppp will be disappointing. The pre-game magic number is 71 points.

Because this is such a major test of the Cats, and because my prediction of a Cat win appears counterintuitive to the vast majority of the Big Blue Nation on the Eve of this game, I would like to explain the basis for this predictive outcome in more detail than I usually do in these pre-game analyses.

First no one knows what the outcome of this game will be. Certainly, I understand the reasons why many Cat fans have formed their sad conclusion that UNC will waltz out of Lexington with the victory. However, I believe the numbers tell a different story. UNC clearly has a superior offense, and has played a tougher initial 6 game early season schedule than the Cats have in their first 5 games. However, the Cats have a distinct edge over the Tarheels on defense, and the Cats have Rupp Arena. Here is how I see these four factors measuring up:

Offense: UNC's offensive efficiency is 0.06 ppp better than the Cats' offensive efficiency, and in an 85 possession game, that advantage equates to about a 5 point Tarheel advantage.

Defense: UK's defensive efficiency is 0.111 ppp better than UNC's defensive efficiency, and in an 85 possession game, that advantage equates to about a 9 point Cat advantage.

Strength of Schedule: The UNC SOS is about 0.09 ppp better than the Cats, and that advantage equates to about an 8 point Tarheel advantage.

Venue: Rupp Arena has been about a 6 point advantage for the Cats over the years.

Margin = 6 [Venue] – 5 [Offensive] + 9 [Defensive] – 8 [SOS] = +2

First Half Summary:

Due to my good fortune to attend this game, I am unable to provide real time commentary on the game today.

The first half pace was about 92 possessions for UNC and 74 possessions for the Cats as the Tarheels took a 5 point lead to the locker room after leading by as many as 8 in the first half. UNC owned the offensive boards during the first half, gaining an additional 6 possessions in the half. Kentucky committed 7 turnovers in the first half, one for every 5.4 possessions. UNC committed 6 turnovers, one for each 7.2 possessions. Kentucky shot the ball reasonably well during the first half, 14-30 [46.7%] overall and a very nice 4-8 [50.0%] from long range. UNC shot the ball poorly, 11-34 [32.4%] overall and 3-8 [37.5%] from beyond the arc.

UNC scored its 37 points on 46 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.806 ppp. Kentucky scored its 32 points on 37 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.865 ppp.

In the first half, UK was 0-0 [0.0%] and UNC was 12-12 [100.0%] from the free throw line.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: The first team to score its 72 nd point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 40 points, while UNC needs 35 points. UNC scored its 72nd point on a pair of free throws with about 5:42 to play in the game and the Tarheels holding to a 72-56 lead. The teams played out the final 5 1/2 minutes with UNC taking the 86-77 victory.

Second Half Summary:

Due to my good fortune to attend this game, I am unable to provide real time commentary on the game today.

Kentucky lost the boards for total rebounds, 32-42, and Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards, 10-16, -6. Kentucky converted its 10 second chance opportunities into 15 second chance points and UNC used its 16 second chance opportunities to post 14 second chance points.

UNC scored its 86 points on 91 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.945 ppp. Kentucky scored its 77 points on 88 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.882 ppp. UNC had an offensive efficiency of 0.960 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 0.875 ppp for its 16 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.795 ppp on its 78 first chance possessions and 1.500 ppp on its 10-second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a pathetic 27.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while UNC was able to convert an above average 42.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well from the free throw line, 18-22 for the game [81.8%]. However, UNC made a living from the line for this game, making 27 of their 34 attempts [79.4%]. UK's field goal shooting was below average for the game, shooting 26-58 [44.8%] overall, and UK shot well from long range, making 7 of 17 attempts [41.2%]. UNC's field goal shooting overall was about 42.6% [26-61], and a good 7-14 [50.0%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 19 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.6 possessions. UNC committed 13 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 7.0 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky victory, 71-69 [86-77] in a game with 84 and 86 possessions [88 and 91 The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.845 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.875 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.802 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.945 ppp.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a rare “D-” respectively as shown below:

UK – UNC GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats play next on Saturday afternoon, December 8, 2007 when they take to the road for the first time this season to Bloomington, Indiana to face the #8 Indiana Hoosiers.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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