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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

36 Cats Open NCAA Tournament Play Against Marquette
In Anaheim, CA as 11 Seed of South Region

Pre-Game Analysis:

The Regular Season ended on a high note, an exclamation point on an outstanding SEC regular season. However, the disaster last weekend generally called the SEC Tournament, left many Cat fans with a sour taste in their mouths. Fortunately, the regular SEC season was sufficient to earn an at large NCAA Tournament Bid, and the Cats live to play another day. That day is Thursday, at 2:30 pm EDT, in Anaheim, California against Marquette in the first round of the South Regional. The Cats have memories as long as elephants, and the Cats have a long standing score to settle with the Marquette Golden Eagles, and most Cat fans believe that the Cats will settle that score for the 2003 Tournament loss in this game.

Marquette brings a 23-9 record into this game, after losing to Big East Tournament Champion Pitt 68-61 in the Big East Semi-finals last Friday. Marquette navigated the Big East schedule and tournament 13-8, and their only non-conference loss this season was a 4 point loss, 77-73, to Duke in Hawaii way back one the day before Thanksgiving. Marquette claim victories over Oklahoma State, also in Hawaii, and Wisconsin on the road in addition to their Big East schedule.

The Cats finished the season 18-12, and 12-5 against SEC opponents. In contrast to Marquette's non-conference record, the Kentucky non-conference “achievements” have been well documented, and widely discussed. Had the Cats traversed their non-conference schedule in a manner to which they have been accustomed, their 12-4 SEC record would have been sufficient to secure one of the highly favored top seeds in a NCAA region. However, their non-conference struggles caused the NCAA selection committee to discount their SEC accomplishments and assign the Cats an 11 seed instead of perhaps a 4 or 5 seed. Many observers believe that the Cats are stronger than a typical 11 Seed.

The question that lingers is whether the Cats are so much better than their 11 Seed to defeat the 6 Seed Marquette. Many believe that the Cats have that ability, but just as the Cats are stronger than a typical 11 Seed, Marquette's record indicates they are probably stronger than a typical 6 Seed. They have a #20 RPI ranking with a strength of schedule strength, 0.5711. The Cats have a RPI ranking of 57 [down 9 spots since Saturday's loss in the SEC quarterfinals to Georgia with a SOS value of 0.5713.

Kentucky averages 77.0 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 79.6 possessions per game. Marquette currently averages 83.8 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 82.0 possessions per game. MARQUETTE has been getting 1.8 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -2.6 per game. UK grabs an average 33.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MARQUETTE grabs an above average 37.5% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an average 33.5% of their misses as offensive rebounds while MARQUETTE allows its opponents an average 33.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover on 20.7% of its possessions, and MARQUETTE commits turnovers on 15.7% of its possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers on only 16.7% of its opponent possessions while MARQUETTE forces one turnover for on only 20.7% of their opponents' possessions.

MARQUETTE 's offensive efficiency has been 0.906 ppp and 75.8 points per game. MARQUETTE 's defensive efficiency has been 0.784 ppp while holding opponents to 64.3 ppg. Their NGE is 0.121 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a stronger offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.891 ppp while scoring about 68.6 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.821 ppp on about 65.3 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.070 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5713 for UK and 0.5711 for MARQUETTE.

Based on this performance data for MARQUETTE and UK to date, which includes thirty regular season and post season games for UK and thirty three regular season and post season games for MARQUETTE, the Cats are a 5-point underdog, 71-66 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 79 possessions for UK and 82 possessions for MARQUETTE. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.835 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.866 ppp, for a game NGE of -0.030 ppp.

First Half Summary:

Coming off the loss to the Georgia Bulldogs last Saturday, in which the Cats fell behind by 12 points early, Coach Gillispie has decided to change the starting lineup for today's NCAA Tournament game. Today, Steverson will start for Coury, and the starting lineup is Jasper, Stevenson, Harris, Bradley, and Crawford. This change leaves the already thin bench limited to Stewart and Porter in all likelihood

The Cats open play by hitting 4 of their first seven shots while holding Marquette to only 3 of their first 8 shots, and the Cats eased out to an early 4 point lead, 10-6, at the under 16 TV timeout. The Cats hit 2 of their first 4 three point attempts, and did not commit a single turnover in the opening 4 minutes of the game. In the second segment, the Cats' hot early shooting abandoned them and Marquette scored the only 4 points of the segment to tie the score at 10-10 at the under 12 TV timeout. During this segment, the Cats also committed two turnovers, to Marquette's one turnover. The early pace is about 60 to 70 possessions, a very slow pace that should favor the Cats in this match up.

Out of the timeout, another pair of Kentucky turnovers and another missed shot, coupled with Marquette hitting 3 of 4, and one of them following an offensive rebound, allowed Marquette to race out to a 6 point lead, 16-10 [12 straight points for Marquette] prompting a Kentucky timeout with about 10 minutes to play in the first half. Out of the timeout, Crawford found Stevenson breaking open at the basket, and Marquette converted one of two free throws to maintain their lead at 5 points, 17-12 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the fourth segment of the first half, the teams traded baskets and free throws but the Cats did catch back up, and tie the score briefly at 23-23 before Marquette made their first three pointer of the day to take a 3 point lead, 26-23 at the under 4 TV timeout. The Cats are getting into mild foul trouble in the first half with Harris on the bench with three, Stevenson on the bench with two, and Crawford playing with 2 fouls.

In the final 3 and ½ minutes the teams again traded scores, and a three pointer by Marquette at the buzzer gave the Golden Eagles a 4 point halftime lead, 33-29.

Marquette opens red hot, hitting 4 of their first 6 shots including their only two three pointers, while the Cats open ice cold, missing their first 4 shots and two free throws before Crawford makes a three pointer. At the under 16 TV timeout, the Dawgs hold a commanding 7 point early lead, 10-3. Both teams seem to be playing a very slow, cautious pace, and the Cats appear completely out of sorts in the early moments of the game. The Cats shooting woes continued during the second segment of the game, ans the Cats missed all 4 attempts and Marquette extended the lead from 7 points to 10 points, 14-4 at the under 12 TV timeout. The Cats are unable to penetrate the Marquette defense, and have attempted 7 three pointers in the early going, with only Crawford able to make one, and the Cats have missed 3 of 4 free throw opportunities.

The first half pace was about 68 possessions for Kentucky and 80 possessions for MARQUETTE. The Golden Eagles controlled the boards in the first half, 21-15, +6, and the offensive glass 9-4, +5. Marquette used their 9 second chance possessions to score 7 second chance points while the Cats used their 4 second chance possessions to score 4 second chance points. Kentucky committed 5 turnovers in the first half, turning it over on 15.2% of its possessions, MARQUETTE committed 3 turnovers, on 13.3% of their possessions..

MARQUETTE scored its 33 points on 40 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0..825 ppp. Kentucky scored its 29 points on 34 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.853 ppp. The offensive rebounding differential, -5 for the Cats, and the –2 Turnover margin gave Marquette 7 more opportunities to score than the Cats had in the half.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 65 Points. The first team to score its 65 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 36 points, while MARQUETTE needs 32 points. Marquette scored its 65 th point on free throws by James with 1:35 to play in the game with the Golden Eagles leading 65-58. The teams played the last 1:35 of the game as Marquette eliminated the Cats from the NCAA from the first round of the Tournament for the first time since 1987, 68-57.

Second Half Summary:

Joe Crawford scored the first 5 points of the second half to give the Cats a lead, but Marquette responded with a run of their own, and at the under 16 TV timeout, the Golden Eagles re-established a lead, 39-36. The Marquette run continued after the TV timeout, as the Cats' turnover problems continue to mount, and Marquette is getting easy scoring opportunities at the hoop. After the run extends to 9-2, Coach Gillispie called a timeout with the score, 45-38 with 13:36 to play in the game.

Following the Kentucky timeout, the teams exchanged three pointers, and Marquette maintained their 7 point lead, 48-41 at the under 12 TV timeout. Joe Crawford has scored every Kentucky second half point, and while the Cats' shooting percentage is climbing, so are the number of turnovers, and Marquette has matched the Kentucky second half shooting with 6-8 shooting in this half. In the third segment of the second half, the Cats began to score again, scoring 10 points on their 7 possessions and cutting the one time Marquette 11 point lead to just 5 points, 56-51, at the under 8 TV timeout.

The Cats cut the lead to 3 points, 56-53, but Marquette made a second chance three pointer to stretch the lead back to 6 points, 59-53 at the under 4 TV timeout. Down the stretch, the Cats cut the lead to as few as 2 points, 68-66 on a Bradley three pointer, but Marquette made 11 of 13 free throws down the stretch as the Cats had to foul to get the ball back, and Marquette secured their win, 74-66.

MARQUETTE won the battle on the boards for the game 34-26, and won the battle on the offensive glass, 15-9, +6. Marquette and Kentucky both used their second chance possessions to score 16 second chance points.

MARQUETTE scored its 74 points on 74 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.000 ppp. Kentucky scored its 66 points on 67 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.985 ppp. MARQUETTE had an offensive efficiency of 0.983 ppp on its 59 first chance possessions and 1.067 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.862 ppp on its 58 first chance possessions and 1.778 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed an average 32.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MARQUETTE was able to convert a strong 46.9% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well from the free throw line, 12-17 for the game [70.6%]. MARQUETTE shot very well from the line for the game, 23-29 [79.3%] from the line today. UK's field goal shooting was strong for the game 23-47 [48.9%] overall, and UK shot very well from long range, making 8 of 19 attempts [42.1%]. MARQUETTE's field goal shooting overall was about 44.2% [23-52], and a good 5-13 [38.5%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 17.9% of their possessions. MARQUETTE committed 7 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 9.6% of their possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky loss, 66-71 [66-74] in a game with 79 and 82 possessions [67-74]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.835 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.985 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.866 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 1.000 ppp.

The Cats stand with a record of 18-11, 12-4 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. Today, the defensive effort was weaker than anticipated.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Today, the offense was stronger than anticipated.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Today, the turnover rate was just under 18%.

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. Today, the Cats lost the battle of the offensive boards against the Golden Eagles, -8 in total rebounds, and -6 on the offensive glass.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B+” and a “D-” respectively as shown below:

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2007-08DataandWritings/2007-08_SeasonPages/31_NCAAMARQUETTE@GRADES.jpg[/img]

UK – MARQUETTE GRADES

Next Game:

This loss eliminates the Cats from further play in the 2008 NCAA Tournament, and brings the Cats' season to an end.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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