BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

35 Cats Open Post Season Play in SEC Quarter Finals Against Georgia

Pre-Game Analysis:

The regular season is officially over, and the records have been duly recorded in the books. The Cats closed the season on Sunday afternoon with a traditional Senior Day ceremony to honor Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford, and to take care of business, as prior Cat teams have done over the years. This year, the Senior Day “victim” was the plummeting Florida Gators.

The win raised the final season record for the Cats to 18-11, 12-4 in the SEC.

Now, the post season begins with the SEC Tournament in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Catlanta, the Blue Mist, and another opportunity to move the world of SEC Basketball another step or two towards normalcy, and the first step is to win the first game and advance to the SEC Semi-final round.

Kentucky will take on the winner of last night's late game between Mississippi [#3 in the SEC West] and Georgia [#6 in the SEC East]. Georgia controlled that game most of the night, but Mississippi was able to catch up late, and extend the contest into overtime. However, Georgia prevailed in the end and advance to play the Cats in the tournament's late night game of the quarterfinal round tonight.

The Cats and Dawgs have played twice this season, with the Cats winning both games, 63-58 in Athens and 61-55 at Rupp. However, the Cats had the services of Patrick Patterson for each of those games, and as we all know, Patterson must sit out this year's post season due to a late season stress fracture of his ankle.

Georgia enters this game with a 13-16 overall record, 5-12 against the SEC opponents including last nights victory over Mississippi. They have a #139 RPI ranking with a strength of schedule strength, 0.5594. The Cats enter this game as the #2 Seed from the SEC East, with a record of 18-11, 12-4 in SEC play. The Cats have a RPI ranking of 48 [down 1 spot since Sunday's win over Florida and a RPI SOS value of 0.5757.

Kentucky averages 76.9 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 79.6 possessions per game. GEORGIA currently averages 82.2 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 79.7 possessions per game. GEORGIA has been getting –2.5 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -2.7 per game. UK grabs an average 32.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA grabs an above average 37.7% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an average 33.3% of their misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA allows its opponents an impressive 32.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover on 20.8% of its possessions, and GEORGIA commits turnovers on 18.4% of its possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers on only 16.6% of its opponent possessions while GEORGIA forces one turnover for on only 16.7% of their opponents' possessions.

GEORGIA 's offensive efficiency has been 0.825ppp and 67.8 points per game. GEORGIA 's defensive efficiency has been 0.844 ppp while holding opponents to 67.2 ppg. Their NGE is –0.041 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a stronger offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.897 ppp while scoring about 69.0 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.823 ppp on about 65.5 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.075 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5757 for UK and 0.5594 for GEORGIA.

Based on this performance data for GEORGIA and UK to date, which includes twenty-nine regular season games for UK and twenty nine regular season D1 games for GEORGIA, the Cats are a 10-point favorite, 72-62 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 78 possessions for UK and 81 possessions for GEORGIA. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.923 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.765 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.158 ppp.

First Half Summary:

Not only did the Cats draw the last game of the quarterfinal round, a tornado passed over the Georgia Dome at about 9:40 pm, while Alabama and Mississippi State were still playing their game in overtime. The weather delayed the previous game for over an hour, and due to these delays, the Kentucky-Georgia game could not start before about 11:20 pm Eastern time. While Coach Gillispie had his team ready at about 9:30 to take the floor for this game, the delays forced Kentucky and Georgia to remain in their locker rooms for an additional hour, and the overtime period added about another 25 minutes to this delay.

After the Mississippi State game was completed, another storm caused a delay, and then postponement of the Kentucky Georgia Quarter Final game. On Saturday morning, ESPN and other news outlets are reporting that the UK-Georgia game, and the remainder of the tournament, will be played at Georgia Tech which only seats about 9100. Only player families, official traveling parties, teams, and media will be given access to the arena. The schedule for Saturday will be Cats-Dawgs at noon, semi-final #1 at 6 pm, and semi-final #2 at about 8:30 pm. This means that the Georgia-Kentucky winner must play twice over a span of less than 9 hours.

For the fourth time since Patterson's injury, the Cats must go without him on the floor. Coach Gillispie starts Jasper, Coury, Harris, Bradley, and Crawford. Stevenson will also be available from the bench for this game, as will Porter, and Stewart.

Georgia opens red hot, hitting 4 of their first 6 shots including their only two three pointers, while the Cats open ice cold, missing their first 4 shots and two free throws before Crawford makes a three pointer. At the under 16 TV timeout, the Dawgs hold a commanding 7 point early lead, 10-3. Both teams seem to be playing a very slow, cautious pace, and the Cats appear completely out of sorts in the early moments of the game. The Cats shooting woes continued during the second segment of the game, ans the Cats missed all 4 attempts and Georgia extended the lead from 7 points to 10 points, 14-4 at the under 12 TV timeout. The Cats are unable to penetrate the Georgia defense, and have attempted 7 three pointers in the early going, with only Crawford able to make one, and the Cats have missed 3 of 4 free throw opportunities.

In the third segment, the Cats made two baskets, which is twice as many as they made in the first 8 minutes, and cut the Georgia lead to 8 points, 16-8 at the under 8 TV timeout. Over the last 8 minutes of the half, the Cats began to score, and the Cats' defense began to stop Georgia by forcing turnovers and forcing missed shots. The Cats caught up at 20-20, and took a 3 point lead, 25-22, into the locker room at the half.

The first half pace was about 66 possessions for Kentucky and 64 possessions for GEORGIA. The Cats controlled the boards in the first half, 16-15, +1, and the Cats controlled the offensive glass 5-3, but each team only managed 2 second chance points. Kentucky committed 6 turnovers in the first half, turning it over on 18.2% of its possessions, GEORGIA committed 8 turnovers, on 25.0% of their possessions..

GEORGIA scored its 22 points on 32 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0..688 ppp. Kentucky scored its 25 points on 33 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.758 ppp.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 49 Points. The first team to score its 49 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 24 points, while GEORGIA needs 27 points. Kentucky scored its 49 th point on layup by Bradley with 2:20 to play in the game with the Cats leading 49-48. The teams played the last 2:20 of regulation to a 50-50 tie, for the Cats' third overtime game of the year, and the second year in the SEC Tournament Quarterfinals. The Teams played out the final 4:50 and the Cats secured their 12 th SEC win of this season by a final score 75-70.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats start the second half with 50% shooting in the opening segment, but 2 turnovers in the first 6 possessions prevented the Cats from extending the lead beyond 5 points, 29-24 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, Georgia's defensive intensity prevented the Cats from scoring except for 2 of 4 free throws, and 4 turnovers. The Dawgs caught the Cats at 30-30, and the Cats are nursing a 1 point lead, 31-30 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the third segment, Georgia again held the Cats to only 2 points while scoring 6 of their own, four of them on second chance possessions, to retake the lead, by 3 points, 36-33 at the under 8 TV timeout.

Georgia nursed their lead into the final 3 minutes of the game when Bradley made a three pointer, and a driving layup to give the Cats the lead again. After Georgia missed a dunk attempt, the Dawgs and then a foul on Harris extended the Cats' lead to 2 points. Georgia hit two free throws to tie the game at 50-50, forcing an overtime period.

In the Overtime, the Cats controlled the opening tip. However an air ball followed by a Georgia basket allowed the Dawgs to draw first blood in the Overtime period. In the overtime, Georgia won the game, 60-56.

Kentucky won the battle on the boards for the game 37-35, and won the battle on the offensive glass, 15-13, +2. Georgia used their 13 second chance possessions more effectively than the Cats used their 15, to gain an advantage of 14-13 in second chance points.

GEORGIA scored its 60 points on 78 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.769 ppp. Kentucky scored its 56 points on 78 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.718 ppp. GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.708 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 1.077 ppp for its 13 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.683 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 0.867 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a strong 40.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA was able to convert a strong 37.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot very poorly from the free throw line, 16-25 for the game [64.0%]. GEORGIA shot the poorly from the line for the game, 14-21 [66.7%] from the line today. UK's field goal shooting was weak for the game 18-51 [35.3%] overall, and UK shot very poorly from long range, making 4 of 19 attempts [21.1%]. GEORGIA's field goal shooting overall was about 40.4% [21-52], and a fair 4-13 [30.8%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 15 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 19.2% of their possessions. GEORGIA committed 15 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 19.2% of their possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky win, 72-63 [56-60] in a game with 78 and 81 possessions [78-78]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.923 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.718 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.778 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.769 ppp.

The Cats stand with a record of 18-11, 12-4 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. Today, the defensive effort was about as anticipated.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Today, the offense was much weaker than anticipated.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Today, the turnover rate was just under 20%.

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. Today, the Cats won the battle of the offensive boards against the Dawgs, +2 in total rebounds, and +2 on the offensive glass.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “E” and a “C” respectively as shown below:

UK – GEORGIA GRADES

Next Game:

This loss eliminates the Cats from further play in the SEC Tournament, and now the Cats wait to find out whether they will play in the NCAA or NIT on Sunday night.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Thirty Six

Go Back
Cats Defend Rupp Against Gators on Senior Day

Copyright 2008
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
All Rights Reserved