07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

34 Cats Return To Rupp For Senior Day and
Last Game of 2008 Against Florida

. Pre-Game Analysis:

The 2007-08 season has carried a classic story line of heroes who overcome great adversity to achieve and win. There can be no doubt that this UK Basketball team faced as much adversity along its path as any UK team in history.

A change in coaching staff, but not only brought in new personalities into the family, but forced a new culture upon the entire family. The creation and implementation of that new culture created shock among some players.
Pre-season injuries that prevented two key players from beginning the season at full strength [Crawford] or even beginning the season at all until 2 months had elapsed [Jasper].
Early season injuries to key players, Harris and Meeks, that interfered with the development of the team at the pace coach would have preferred. Meeks' injury continues to keep his talent on the sidelines as the end of the season approaches.
The defection of a highly regarded freshman recruit from the team in early December.
The loss of Bradley for most of the game at Georgia [First Road Win] and the next game at Auburn [Second Road Win].
The loss of Patrick Patterson to a stress fracture in his left ankle less than one week ago as the Cats prepared for their most important 3 game sequence of the season.

In the midst of these various forms of adversity, the team and their new coach struggled and lost some early games in very ugly style causing many observers and fans to doubt. However, the Coach never doubted. However, the core group of players that responded to their Coach's call to adapt to the new culture never doubted. Their collective performance for the 2007-08 season is one for fans and pundits to ponder and discuss for decades to come.

Now it is time for this regular season to close. And, it is time for thoughts about post-season play to ripen for our enjoyment. This has been a special year, to say the least.

The curtain will close on this regular season on Sunday afternoon in Rupp Arena as the twice-defending National Champion Florida Gators come to town for their rematch with the Cats. They have beaten the Cats 7 straight times, a streak that extends back to the regular season finale on the 2005 season and spans their two year reign as the national champions.

However, this is not the same Florida team that established this streak, and this is not the same Kentucky team that sustained it. We saw a glimpse that the times, they are a changin' in January when the Gators needed a couple of very favorable officiating calls to extend the game into overtime before beating the Cats. At that time, Florida extended its record to 16-3, 3-1 in the SEC while the Cats fell to 7-9, 1-2 in the SEC.

My how the fortunes of these two teams changed since that overtime game. Since then, the Cats are 10-2 while the Gators have lost more SEC games than they have won, 5-6. Today, the Cats stand 11-4, and are assured of no worse than a tie with Vanderbilt for 2 nd place in the tough SEC East, while Florida stands at 8-7, and a lock at 4 th in the East. A win over the Gators on Sunday will lock in the #2 spot and knock the Gators hopes of another NCAA appearance a serious blow in the head.

After the 7-9, 1-2 start, this team has faced the reality that every game would be a “must win” situation if they wanted to keep their pre-season goals and dreams alive and relevant. The first such must win was the first SEC game when an undefeated Vandy team came to Rupp, but left with their first loss, in double overtime. After back to back road losses to Mississippi State [West Champs] and the aforementioned OT loss at Florida, the Cats then faced a must win against Tennessee in Rupp. The Cats took care of business. Then they turned back a stubborn SOUTH CAROLINA team, also at Rupp.

However, the Cats had still not won a single game outside of Rupp Arena all season, so they traveled to Georgia for that singular purpose. Notwithstanding a game ending concussion to Bradley, and severe leg cramps that sidelined Crawford for the last 5 minutes, the Cats left Athens with their first road win, and the follow up performance at Auburn, again without their heart and soul, Ramel Bradley.

And so the string of “must wins” continued against Alabama, leading to the rematch in Music City. Oh my, what a wake up call the Commodores delivered, but it was quickly back to the business of taking care of business at LSU [one of the hottest teams in the SEC over the last half of the SEC season], home against Georgia, Arkansas, and Mississippi.

This set the stage for the fateful final three games: At Tennessee; At FLORIDA, and the finale at home against Florida.

Patterson is lost for the season two days prior to going to Knoxville.

So now the stage is set. The stakes for this team have been huge for every SEC game this season, and the stakes are huge for this game too.

A Win will secure second place in the East and the first round tournament bye.
A Win will end Florida's embarrassing 7 game winning streak against the Cats
A Win will send these two senior out of Rupp Arena in the manner that all prior Kentucky Senior are accustomed.
A Win should virtually assure this team will play in the Big Dance in just 2 weeks from today.

Florida enters this game with a 21-9 overall record, 8-7 in the SEC. They have a #61 RPI ranking with a strength of schedule strength, 0.5346. FLORIDA can't finish any better than #4 in the East, win or lose on Sunday.

The Cats enter this game in sole possession of #2 in the SEC East, 11-4 behind Tennessee, 13-2, and ahead of Vanderbilt, 10-5, and Florida, 8-7. After twenty-eight games, the Cats are 17-11, and 11-4 in the SEC with an RPI ranking of 47 [up 5 spots on the strength of Wednesday's win at South Carolina and a RPI SOS value of 0.5795.

Kentucky averages 77.3 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 79.8 possessions per game. FLORIDA currently averages 80.7 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 79.1 possessions per game. FLORIDA has been getting –1.6 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -2.5 per game. UK grabs an average 32.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA grabs an above average 35.6% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an average 32.9% of their misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA allows its opponents an impressive 30.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover on 21.0% of its possessions, and FLORIDA commits turnovers on 15.7% of its possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers on only 16.6% of its opponent possessions while FLORIDA forces one turnover for on only 17.0% of their opponents' possessions.

FLORIDA 's offensive efficiency has been 0.976 ppp and 78.7 points per game. FLORIDA 's defensive efficiency has been 0.860 ppp while holding opponents to 68.0 ppg. Their NGE is 0.116 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a weaker offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.890 ppp while scoring about 68.8 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.819 ppp on about 65.4 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.072 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5796 for UK and 0.5346 for FLORIDA.

Based on this performance data for FLORIDA and UK to date, which includes twenty-eight regular season games for UK and thirty regular season D1 games for FLORIDA, the Cats are a 5-point favorite, 73-68 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 78 possessions for UK and 80 possessions for FLORIDA. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.923 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.850 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.073 ppp.

A game NGE greater than 0.125 ppp will be an impressive performance while a game NGE less than 0.025 ppp will be disappointing. The pre-game magic number is 70 points.

First Half Summary:

For the third time since Patterson's injury, the Cats must go without him on the floor. Coach Gillispie starts Jasper, Coury, Harris, Bradley, and Crawford. Stevenson will also be available from the bench for this game, as will Porter, and Stewart. As they did on last Sunday in Knoxville, and Wednesday in Columbia, each of these players will need to contribute to the overall team effort for the Cats to leave Columbia with the victory.

The Cats open cold and commit two turnovers on their first 5 possessions while Florida opens with perfect 4 for 4 shooting prompting a Kentucky timeout down 8, 10-2 with 16: 26 to play in the first half. Out of the timeout, Jasper hits a three pointer. A Stevenson put back and a Jasper drive cut the lead to 12-9 prompting a Florida timeout at the 14:57 mark. However, Florida continues their perfect shooting from the floor, extending that streak to 7 for 7 and a 19-12 lead at the under 12 TV timeout. In the early going, the pace is mid 70s for the Cats and mid 60s for the Gators, a pace that favors the Cats in this game, but the perfect shooting has been sufficient to build the early lead despite 50% shooting by the Cats in the first 8 minutes.

In the third segment the Cats caught up at 21-21, and eased to their first lead of the game at 24-23 on an old fashioned three point play by Stevenson. However, a Gator three pointer allowed the Gators to regain the lead, 26-24 at the under 8 TV timeout. The pace is settling into the low 70s range for the game, and in that segment, the Gators finally missed two shots from the field. In the fourth segment, the Cats held the Gators scoreless while scoring 8 straight points to forge a 6 point lead, 32-26 at the under 4 TV timeout at the 2:57 mark of the first half. Lucas will be shooting the 1 plus 1 when play resumes.

The shooting of these teams have evened out, and the Gators are 2 for their last 9 after hitting their first 7 shots, and the Cats are 14 for 23. The Cats have only committed 4 turnovers, yet they have forced 8 Gator turnovers in the first 17 minutes of the game. In the closing moments of the first half, the Gators scored 5 straight points to cut the Cats' lead to a single point, 32-31, and Bradley made only one of two free throws to close out the scoring in the first half with the Cats leading 33-31.

The first half pace was about 70 possessions for Kentucky and 66 possessions for FLORIDA. The Gators controlled the boards in the first half, 14-11, +3, but the Cats controlled the offensive glass 4-3, which produced an advantage of 4 –2 in second chance points. Kentucky committed 6 turnovers in the first half, turning it over on 17.1% of its possessions, FLORIDA committed 9 turnovers, on 27.3% of their possessions..

FLORIDA scored its 31 points on 33 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0..939 ppp. Kentucky scored its 33 points on 35 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.943 ppp.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 66 Points. The first team to score its 66 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 33 points, while FLORIDA needs 35 points. Kentucky scored its 66 th point on layup by Bradley with 4:50 to play in the game with the Cats leading 67-55. The Teams played out the final 4:50 and the Cats secured their 12 th SEC win of this season by a final score 75-70.

Second Half Summary:

The second half begins with the Gators scoring the first 4 points and regaining the lead, 35-33, but the Cats answer with 7 straight of their own to run back into the lead, 5 points, 40-35, at the under 16 TV timeout. Perry Stevenson will be shooting a free throw to try to complete his three point play when play resumes. The Cats continued their run when play resumed to extend their lead to 12 points, 47-35, forcing a Florida timeout with 13:39 to play. The teams traded baskets for the next 2 minutes, and the Cats took an 11 point lead, 50-39, into the under 12 TV timeout, and will have possession when play resumes.

The Cats extended their lead to 16 points, but a five point trip by Florida cut the lead quickly to 11, which is where the lead stands at the under 8 TV timeout, 62-51 with Florida on the line to complete a three point play when play resumes. In the critical fourth segment of the second half, the Cats maintained their lead and took a 12 point lead to the bench for the under 4 TV timeout, with 3:47 remaining in the game and the score 67-55.

The Gators put a great push over the last 4 minutes, and cut the one time 16 point lead to 3 points, 73-70 with 23 seconds to play. During this run, the Cats hit only 2 of 7 free throws, as Jasper has missed all three of his attempts, and Bradley converted only 1 of his 2 attempts. The Cats consumed their last 2 timeouts with 17 seconds to play when they had trouble getting the ball in bounds under the Gators' basket. Finally, the Cats get the ball inbounds, and the Gators foul Stevenson with 9.6 seconds to play. Stevenson converted both free throws to seal the win, 75-70.

Florida won the battle on the boards for the game 35-23, and won the battle on the offensive glass, 15-6, -9. That –9 offensive rebounding deficit provided the Gators an 8 point margin today, 17-9, as the Gators used their second chance possessions to take an and second chance points to climb back into this game after being down 60-44 with about 8 minutes to play in the game.

FLORIDA scored its 70 points on 74 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.946 ppp. Kentucky scored its 75 points on 67 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.119 ppp. FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 0.898 ppp on its 59 first chance possessions and 1.133 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.082 ppp on its 61 first chance possessions and 1.500 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed an weak 23.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA was able to convert a powerful 46.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot very poorly from the free throw line, 9-20 for the game [45.0%]. FLORIDA shot the poorly from the line for the game, 14-22 [62.6%] from the line today. UK's field goal shooting was strong for the game 28-48 [58.3%] overall, and UK shot well from long range, making 10 of 18 attempts [55.6%]. FLORIDA's field goal shooting overall was about 48.1% [25-52], and a fair 6-17 [35.3%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 9 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 13.4% of their possessions. FLORIDA committed 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 16.2% of their possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky loss, 73-68 [75-70] in a game with 78 and 80 possessions [67-74]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.936 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 1.119 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.850 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.946 ppp.

The Cats stand with a record of 18-11, 12-4 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:

• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. Today, the defensive effort was weaker than anticipated against a very powerful offensive team.

• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Today, the offense was stronger than anticipated despite the absence of Patrick Patterson.

• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Today, the turnover rate was one of the lowest of the season, 13.4%.

• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. Today, the Cats lost the battle of the offensive boards against the Gators, -12 in total rebounds, and –9 on the offensive glass.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B+” and a “D+” respectively as shown below:

UK – FLORIDA GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats' next game will be in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals at about 10:00 pm on Friday, March 14, 2008. The Cats will play the winner of the Mississippi-Georgia first round game on Thursday. The SEC Tournament will be held in Atlanta this year.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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