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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings
33 Cats Travel to South Carolina For Last SEC Road Game of Season
Pre-Game Analysis:
When the Cats traveled to Knoxville on Sunday afternoon to take on the #1 Tennessee Game Cocks, no one really gave the Cats much of a fighting chance to leave Knoxville a winner. The Vegas line at game time was 14 points, and the intangibles were all weighing against the Cats. Tennessee was playing for their first outright SEC regular season championship since 1967, and had just attained the #1 ranking in the land less than a week before this game. The Vol's were coming off a let-down loss to Vandy on Tuesday night in Nashville. And, … , oh what an And, … Kentucky lost their all SEC Freshman post man on Friday afternoon due to a stress fracture, leaving the already depleted Kentucky roster without one of three key players.
Yes, no one much gave the Cats a chance of even being within shouting distance of the mighty Tennessee Volunteers prior to this game.
However, the Iron Cats had different ideas, their coach had a plan, and the players executed that plan for their coach almost to perfection. Yes, the Cats lost the game, but they won the war of the psyche and left Tennessee knowing that they have those intangible qualities that make winners in games and in life.
And so, the team must pick up their spirits and move on to the next “Biggest” game of the year on Wednesday night at South Carolina. Throughout the SEC season, so many games, home and away, have been the “Biggest” and “Most Important” game that it leaves all observers wondering not only how that could have been, and it has been, but also wondering whether these Iron Cats can answer the call one more time this season?
I believe that they can, and they will. Let me clear what I mean by “they”. They includes Bradley, Crawford, Harris, Stevenson, Jasper, Coury, Stewart, and Porter. “They” does not include either Carter or Williams, in excess of 14 feet and two scholarships that offer no enduring value to this team or this program.
Kentucky and South Carolina are poised for a rematch of their earlier Rupp Arena meeting in which the Cats prevailed by 8 points, 78-70. In that game, the cats used outstanding shooting from the floor to offset a weak rebounding effort and a –6 differential in turnovers. This time around, the Cats will have to reverse the turnover margin, go much stronger to the boards, especially the offensive boards, and apply a defensive intensity that matches the effort they gave on Sunday in Knoxville if they want to leave Columbia, South Carolina with their 4 th SEC road win of the season, and their 11 th SEC win to keep the heat on the NCAA selection committee and stay ahead of Vandy for the #2 spot in the SEC East.
The stakes for this team have been huge for every SEC game this season, and the stakes are huge for this game too. The difference is that the razor thin margin for error become a No Margin For Error on Sunday, and the stakes have become crystal clear to all involved.
South Carolina enters this game with a 13-15 overall record, 5-9 in the SEC. They have a #138 RPI ranking with a strength of schedule strength, 0.5572.
The Cats enter this game in sole possession of #2 in the SEC East, 10-4 behind Tennessee, 12-2, and ahead of Vanderbilt, 9-5, and Florida, 8-6. The Cats need only one more win to assure no worse than a tie for the #2 spot in the SEC East, and two more wins will lock in sole possession of that position. Of course, the Cats have a theoretical way to tie for the SEC East Championship if Tennessee loses both remaining games and the Cats win out.
As noted in previous discussions this season, the Cats' play this season has been marked by:
• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.
• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.
• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported, and
• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage.
Through 28 D1 games this season, SOUTH CAROLINA is 13-15, AND 5-9 in SEC play. South Carolina can't finish any better than #5 in the East and could conceivably tie Georgia for last if USC loses its last two while Georgia wins out. SOUTH CAROLINA carries a current RPI ranking of #138 and a RPI SOS of 0.5572 for all D1 games played. After twenty-seven games, the Cats are 16-11, and 10-4 in the SEC with an RPI ranking of 52 [up 6 spots on the strength of Sunday's game with #1 Tennessee] and a RPI SOS value of 0.5817.
Kentucky averages 77.5 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 79.9 possessions per game. SOUTH CAROLINA currently averages 79.2 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 81.3 possessions per game. SOUTH CAROLINA has been getting –2.1 fewer offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -2.4 per game. UK grabs an average 33.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds while SOUTH CAROLINA grabs an above average 31.1% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an average 32.9% of their misses as offensive rebounds while SOUTH CAROLINA allows its opponents an impressive 37.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds.
With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover on 20.8% of its possessions, and SOUTH CAROLINA commits turnovers on 13.3% of its possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers on only 16.8% of its opponent possessions while SOUTH CAROLINA forces one turnover for on only 17.8% of their opponents' possessions.
SOUTH CAROLINA 's offensive efficiency has been 0.915 ppp and 72.5 points per game. SOUTH CAROLINA 's defensive efficiency has been 0.858 ppp while holding opponents to 69.8 ppg. Their NGE is 0.057 ppp.
Kentucky has posted a weaker offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.887 ppp while scoring about 68.7 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.819 ppp on about 65.4 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.068 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5817 for UK and 0.5569 for SOUTH CAROLINA.
Based on this performance data for SOUTH CAROLINA and UK to date, which includes twenty-seven regular season games for UK and twenty-eight regular season D1 games for SOUTH CAROLINA, the Game Cocks are a 3-point favorite, 68-71 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 79 possessions for UK and 80 possessions for SOUTH CAROLINA. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.861 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.888 ppp, for a game NGE of –0.027 ppp.
A game NGE greater than 0.025 ppp will be an impressive performance while a game NGE less than –0.075 ppp will be disappointing. The pre-game magic number is 70 points.
First Half Summary:
For the second time since Patterson's injury, the Cats must go without him on the floor. Coach Gillispie starts Jasper, Coury, Harris, Bradley, and Crawford. Stevenson will also be available from the bench for this game, as will Porter, Stewart, and perhaps Carter. As they did on Sunday in Knoxville, each of these players will need to contribute to the overall team effort for the Cats to leave Columbia with the victory.
The teams start hitting well from the field, and the Cats committed turnovers on their first two possessions, and the teams played on even terms for the first 4 minutes, 7-7 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, each team again commits two turnovers [4 each for the game] but the cats ease out from the 7-7 tie to a 5 point lead, 13-8 at the under 12 TV timeout. The Cats have a +1 advantage on the offensive boards, and a 5-0 advantage in second chance points. In the third segment of the first half, the Cats held the Gamecocks scoreless, but only scored 4 points of their own, to extend their early lead to 9 points, 17-8 at the under 8 TV timeout. The pace of this game is in the low 70s range. The Cats continue to turn the ball over at a very high frequency. Out of the timeout, USC hit one of two free throws for their first point since they led 8-7 on a free throw immediately after the under 16 TV timeout. In the fourth segment, USC cut the Cats' 9 point lead to 6 points as the pace of the game hastened, and Kentucky continued to commit turnovers, 10 now for the game, and the Cats leading 24-18 at the under 4 TV timeout. The teams traded baskets, and the Cats again committed two more turnovers in the final segment of the half. At the half, the Cats lead by 9 points, 34-25.
The first half pace was about 72 possessions for Kentucky and 78 possessions for SOUTH CAROLINA. The Cats controlled the boards in the first half, 14-11, +3, but the Gamecocks controlled the offensive glass 6-3, which produced an equal 5 second chance points for each team. Kentucky committed 12 turnovers in the first half, turning it over on 33.3% of its possessions, SOUTH CAROLINA committed 9 turnovers, on 23.1% of their possessions..
SOUTH CAROLINA scored its 25 points on 39 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0..641 ppp. Kentucky scored its 34 points on 36 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.944 ppp.
Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:
MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 64 Points. The first team to score its 64 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 30 points, while SOUTH CAROLINA needs 39 points. Kentucky scored its 64 th point on three pointer by Bradley with 2:42 to play in the game with the Cats leading 65-57. The Teams played out the final 2:42 and the Cats secured their 11 th SEC win of this season, their 4 th SEC road win, and secured at least a tie with Vandy for second place in the SEC East, final score 71-63.
Second Half Summary:
The second half begins with Crawford and Archie trading baskets, as the Cats extended their 9 point half time lead to 12 points on 3 occasions, but the turnover parade continued for the Cats, with two more in that segment for a total of 14 turnovers for the game. The Cats lead 44-34 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment of the second half the Cats extend their lead to 13 points, 49-36 at the under 12 TV timeout. USC trimmed a point from the lead in the third segment, as the Cats lead 56-44 at the under 8 TV timeout.
In the fourth segment, USC took advantage of a Kentucky scoring drought and cut a 16 point lead, 56-40, to only 5 points, 62-57, before a Bradley 3 pointer A USC turnover was negated by a Crawford miss, and then USC is fouled on a drive to the basket allowing USC to cut the 8 point lead to 7 points on one of two shots. The final margin was 8 points, 71-63.
Kentucky won the battle on the boards for the game 30-28, but lost the battle on the offensive glass, 12-6, -6. That –6 offensive rebounding deficit provided the 4 point margin today, as the Game Cocks used their second chance possessions to take an 11-7 advantage on second chance points.
SOUTH CAROLINA scored its 63 points on 77 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.818 ppp. Kentucky scored its 71 points on 71 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.000 ppp. SOUTH CAROLINA had an offensive efficiency of 0.800 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 0.917 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.985 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 1.167 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions.
UK grabbed an weak 27.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while SOUTH CAROLINA was able to convert an NCAA D1 average 33.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK shot well from the free throw line, 20-28 for the game [71.4%]. SOUTH CAROLINA shot the poorly from the line for the game, 10-15 [66.7%] from the line today. UK's field goal shooting was strong for the game 22-39 [56.4%] overall, and UK shot well from long range, making 7 of 13 attempts [53.8%]. SOUTH CAROLINA's field goal shooting overall was about 40.0% [24-60], and a weak 5-16 [31.3%] from long range.
Kentucky committed 18 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 25.4% of their possessions. SOUTH CAROLINA committed 10 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 13.0% of their possessions.
Post Game Analysis:
Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky loss, 64-67 [71-63] in a game with 79 and 80 possessions [71-77]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.861 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 1.000 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.888 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.818 ppp.
The Cats stand with a record of 17-11, 11-4 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:
• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. Today, the defensive effort was stronger than anticipated.
• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Today, the offense was stronger than anticipated despite the absence of Patrick Patterson.
• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Today, the turnover rate reverted back to earlier season tendencies, as the turnover rate again exceeded 25% for the game.
• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. Today, the Cats lost the battle of the offensive boards against a poor rebounding USC team.
Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B+” and a “B-” respectively as shown below:
UK – SOUTH CAROLINA GRADES
Next Game:
The Cats' next game will be Sunday afternoon, March 9, 2008 against Florida at Rupp Arena in the last regular season game of the 2007-08 season, and the last game at Rupp Arena for Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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