07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

32 Cats Travel to Tennessee Without Patrick Patterson

Pre-Game Analysis:

The Cats started the 2007-08 season struggling to understand the demands of a new coach, a search that injuries to key players Jasper, Meeks, Harris, and Crawford slowed considerably. The low point of that process was marked by an 11 game stretch that generated 8 losses and a 7-9, 1-2 record. However, most astute Cat Watchers saw reasons for optimism over the last 4 games of that 11 game trial by fire, and some boldly predicted the dawn of a second season, and boldly forecast wins in 9 of their 10 next games and an opportunity to compete for a first round bye in the SEC post season tournament.

Sure enough, the Cats finished that 10 game stretch with their 9 th win in 10 games by defeating Mississippi. The Cats had not only re-entered national talk of post season NCAA opportunities, but their next game on Sunday, March 2, 2008 at Tennessee would provide this Cat team the improbable opportunity to play SEC leading Volunteers for the lead of the tough SEC East. All was finally well in the Big Blue Nation, right?

Not so fast Cat fans because on Friday afternoon, Kentucky's All SEC Freshman, Patrick Patterson learned that his season ended pre-maturely due to a stress fracture in his left ankle. Without his services on the floor, how can this already thin, but gritty group of Wildcats possibly compete with any of the final three teams on the SEC and regular schedule this season? Oh, “Woe is me” was the immediate response from nearly all Cat fans.

Here is the difficulty. The Kentucky roster is not complete, and the list of players who have been able to contribute in any significant way on the floor during games to the success that this team has experienced has been limited to 7 players, three of whom provided the vast majority of the points on the offensive end of the court. Patrick Patterson is one of those three, and his loss leaves the Cats with only 6 players and 2 offensive weapons to bring against the #1 ranked Tennessee Volunteers only 2 days after learning the news of Patterson's loss. This raises many questions about this team, questions that have been asked for several months in some circles. Questions that some fans and commentators have not been willing to answer heretofore with any degree of candor or truthfulness.

Are the remaining players on this team, who have by and large been relegated to pine polishing duties this season despite their scholarship player status, ready, able, and willing to contribute on the floor during games in meaningful ways?

Are Carter, Stewart, and Williams in any combination of presence and playing time capable of playing the game of basketball on the big stage that the University of Kentucky basketball program has occupied for so long?

Today, and over the next two weeks, the program, these three players will answer these pressing questions. At the end of the SEC Tournament, the Kentucky Coach, each of these players, the fans, and the press will know the answers to these pressing questions that will determine the future course of this program.

These internal issues and questions much more than any definition of the Tennessee Volunteers will frame the importance and significance of today's rematch with the Tennessee Volunteers.

Tennessee is currently the #1 ranked team in the nation, a first ever status for their program, and their top ranking will not survive beyond this singular week because on Tuesday night, one day after attaining the top spot, Tennessee fell to the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville. Tennessee is also sitting atop the SEC standings with a 11-2 record with three games remaining. A win today over the Cats will assure them no worse than a tie for first in the SEC East, and give them the inside track for the regular season conference championship over Tennessee State.

Tennessee enters today's game with a 24-3 overall record, 11-2 in the SEC. In addition to their #1 ranking in the wire service polls, they also continue to hold the #1 RPI ranking on the strength of their #2 schedule strength, 0.6108.

The Cats enter this game in sole possession of #2 in the SEC East, 10-3 behind Tennessee, 11-1, and ahead of Vanderbilt, 8-5, and Florida, 7-6. The Cats need only one more win to assure no worse than a tie for the #2 spot in the SEC East, and two more wins will lock in sole possession of that position. Of course, the Cats are still competing for the #1 in the East position and can do so by winning their final 3 games.

As noted in previous discussions this season, the Cats' play this season has been marked by:

• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.

• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.

• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported, and

• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage.

Through 27 D1 games this season, TENNESSEE is 24-3, AND 11-2 in SEC play. TENNESSEE carries a current RPI ranking of #1 and a RPI SOS of 0.6108 for all D1 games played. After twenty-six games, the Cats are 16-10, and 10-3 in the SEC with an RPI ranking of 58 [up 7 spots on the strength of Wednesday's win over Mississippi] and a RPI SOS value of 0.5736.

Kentucky averages 77.7 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 80.1 possessions per game. TENNESSEE currently averages 89.2 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 86.7 possessions per game. TENNESSEE has been getting +2.5 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -2.4 per game. UK grabs an average 33.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE grabs an above average 37.0% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an average 32.8% of their misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE allows its opponents an impressive 33.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover on 20.7% of its possessions, and TENNESSEE commits turnovers on 14.6% of its possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers on only 16.9% of its opponent possessions while TENNESSEE forces one turnover for on only 21.7% of their opponents' possessions.

TENNESSEE 's offensive efficiency has been 0.920 ppp and 82.1 points per game. TENNESSEE 's defensive efficiency has been 0.806 ppp while holding opponents to 69.9 ppg. Their NGE is 0.113 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a weaker offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.889 ppp while scoring about 69.1 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.818 ppp on about 65.5 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.071 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5736 for UK and 0.6108 for TENNESSEE.

Based on this performance data for TENNESSEE and UK to date, which includes twenty-six regular season games for UK and twenty-seven regular season D1 games for TENNESSEE, the Volunteers are a 13-point favorite, 65-78 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 82 possessions for UK and 85 possessions for TENNESSEE. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.793 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.918 ppp, for a game NGE of –0.153 ppp.

A game NGE greater than -0.100 ppp will be an impressive performance while a game NGE less than –0.200 ppp will be disappointing. The pre-game magic number is 73 points.

First Half Summary:

With the loss of Patrick Patterson, Coach Gillispie will have to modify a starting lineup that has been winning in SEC play. Patterson's unavailability is certain, but Meeks status for today continues to be a day to day situation. Coach Gillispie starts Jasper, Coury, Harris, Bradley, and Crawford. Stevenson will also be available from the bench for this game, but it appears that Meeks will not be available. That means that A J Stewart and Jared Carter need to step up to the plate and take advantage of this opportunity to demonstrate why they belong on this team.

The game starts with the pace and effectiveness that Tennessee would prefer, and the Vols take advantage of the early conditions to sprint to an 11-2 lead at the under 16 TV timeout. Kentucky is struggling to get good looks at the basket, shooting 1 for 4, 0-2 from the line, and committing 2 early turnovers, while Tennessee hits 4-5, 2-2 from the line, and only 1 turnover. This early 9 point lead was precisely what the Cats could not allow to happen. In the second segment, it was more of the same, perhaps even worse for the Cats, as the Cats committed 4 more turnovers on just 10 possessions, and allowed Tennessee to extend their early lead to 13 points, 18-5 at the under 12 TV timeout. Without Patrick Patterson, the team is completely disoriented on the offensive end, and on defense, Tennessee is scoring at will, at a rate of over 1 point per possession. The pace is about 85 possessions for the game, which also favors the Volunteers in this game.

In the third segment, the Cats only committed one more turnover, and made their first three pointer of the day, and they managed to slow down the Tennessee offensive juggernaut, and holding their own during the segment for the first time today. However, Tennessee continues to lead the game by 13 points, 22-9 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the fourth segment, Joe Crawford picked up his third personal foul, and had to go to the bench in favor of Porter. However, the Cats won their first game segment of the day, outscoring Tennessee 13-9, but cut the lead to single digits, 31-22 at the under 4 TV timeout, with one free throw coming to Tennessee when play resumes. In the final segment, the Cats trimmed the lead by another bucket, and go to the locker room to regroup down 7 at the half, 34-27.

The first half pace was about 66 possessions for Kentucky and 76 possessions for TENNESSEE. The Volunteers controlled the boards in the first half, 16-15, +1, and 6-2 on the offensive boards, which produced an advantage of 2-4 for second chance points. Kentucky committed 9 turnovers in the first half, TENNESSEE committed 4 turnovers.

TENNESSEE scored its 34 points on 38 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0..895 ppp. Kentucky scored its 27 points on 33 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.818 ppp.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 65 Points. The first team to score its 65 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 38 points, while TENNESSEE needs 31 points. Tennessee had a chance to score their 65 th point on free throws by Lamar Smith with 0:15 to play in the game, but he missed the first half of the 1+1, and the Cats missed on 2 three point attempts in the closing seconds before falling to the #1 Tennessee Volunteers by e points, 63-60 on their home floor.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats start the second half by scoring on their first two possessions, cutting the lead to 5 points, 36-31, prompting a quick Tennessee timeout after only 80 seconds of play. The Cats continue to mount a come back, as they cut the lead to only one point, 36-35, but three straight turnovers, and Crawford's 4 th foul allowed the Vols to extend their lead back to 6 points, 41-35. However, Perry Stevenson came to play, and the Cats tied the score at 41-41 at the end of the prolonged initial segment of the first half, and with one free throw coming when play resumes, and a chance to take their first lead of the game, with 13:54 to play in the game at the under 16 TV timeout.

Harris converted the free throw to give the Cats their first lead of the day, 42-41, and the teams swapped baskets for the remainder of the abbreviated second segment of the second half, and continued to lead 44-43 at the under 12 TV timeout, which Lofton prepared to take a pair of free throws when play resumes. In the third segment of the second half, the teams traded baskets, and the Cats forged their biggest lead, 2 points, 49-47 at the 8:00 mark. The Cats did this on a pair of Bradley free throws, but after Coach Gillispie inserted Carter into the game to give Harris a breather just prior to the under 8 TV timeout, Carter fouled a Tennessee shooter in the lane, allowing the Vols to regain the lead, 50-49 at the under 8 TV timeout, and Tennessee will have the first possession when play resumes. Coach Gillispie returns Joe Crawford into the game out of the timeout as well.

Huge baskets by Bradley, a three, Jasper, a three, and Crawford a fall away jumper from the baseline, gave the Cats the lead again, 57-56, with 4:44 to play in the game. However, back to back Kentucky Turnovers again allow the Volunteers to stretch their lead back to 3 points at the under 4 TV timeout, with only 1:41 to play, and Lofton on the line for 1+1 when play resumes. Lofton made one of his two free throws, and following another Kentucky turnover, Lofton drove to the hoop for another basket to extend the Vol lead to 6 points, 63-60. However, a Jasper three pointer cut that lead back to 3 points with one minute to play in the game. The Vols have the ball and the lead. Neither team is able to score in the final 1:41, and the Vols escape with the victory, 63-60.

Kentucky won the battle on the boards for the game 33-31, but lost the battle on the offensive glass, 10-13, -3. That –3 offensive rebounding deficit provided the 3 point margin today, as the Vols used their second chance possessions to take an 11-8 advantage on second chance points.

TENNESSEE scored its 63 points on 75 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.840 ppp. Kentucky scored its 60 points on 72 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.833 ppp. TENNESSEE had an offensive efficiency of 0.839 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 0.846 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.839 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 0.800 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed an impressive 35.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE was able to convert an equally impressive 36.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the free throw line, 12-19 for the game [63.2%]. TENNESSEE shot the well from the line for the game, 16-22 [72.7%] from the line today. UK's field goal shooting was poor for the game 21-47 [44.7%] overall, and UK shot well from long range, making 6 of 16 attempts [37.5%]. TENNESSEE's field goal shooting overall was about 40.7% [22-54], and a weak 3-12 [25.0%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 17 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 23.6% of their possessions. TENNESSEE committed 10 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 13.3% of their possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky loss, 65-78 [60-63] in a game with 82 and 85 possessions [72-75]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.793 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.833 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.918 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.840 ppp.

The Cats stand with a record of 16-11, 10-4 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:

• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. Today, the defensive effort was stronger than anticipated.

• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Today, the offense was stronger than anticipated despite the absence of Patrick Patterson and Crawford having foul trouble and missing almost ½ of the total game today.

• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Today, the turnover rate reverted back to earlier season tendencies, as the turnover rate again exceeded 23% for the game.

• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. Today, the Cats held their own on the boards against a strong rebounding Tennessee team.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a “B-” respectively as shown below:

UK – TENNESSEE GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats' next game will be Wednesday Night, March 5, 2008 against South Carolina at Columbia, South Carolina.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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