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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings
31 Cats Host Fading Mississippi at Rupp
Pre-Game Analysis:
On Saturday afternoon, the intensity again cranked up another notch, and the Kentucky Wildcats responded to the call yet again. In their 9 SEC victories this season, they have trailed in the second half of the game, and the game against the Hogs was consistent with that pattern. Trailing by 3 points with under 4 minutes to play, 53-50, the Cats outscored the Hogs 13-8 down the stretch to secure their 9 th SEC victory against 3 losses, and their 8 win in their last 9 games. As a result the Cats continue to hold a secure hold on the #2 spot in the SEC East behind league leading and nationally #1 Tennessee.
Next on the Cats' agenda, the Ole Miss Rebels who come calling at Rupp Arena on Wednesday night. There can be little doubt to these Wildcats that their season long goal of playing in the NCAA tournament in March is again on the line, just as it has been since the second knock down at the hands of San Diego, nearly 2 months ago. There is no margin for error left for this team, and the Cats must defend their home hardwood again to remain on track to reach that important goal.
Mississippi will be limping into Rupp arena. After an impressive 13-0 non-conference start to this season, the Rebels have staggered and fallen significantly once SEC play began. Mississippi brings an overall record of 18-8, 4-8 in the SEC. Mississippi has seen a pre-SEC national ranking, and their NCAA hopes die away over the course of the first 12 SEC games. A loss to the Cats on Wednesday night will assure the Rebels a losing conference record and make their NCAA participation virtually impossible without winning the SEC Tournament in Atlanta.
The Cats enter this game in sole possession of #2 in the SEC East, 9-3 behind Tennessee, 11-1, and ahead of Vanderbilt, 8-4, and Florida, 7-5.
As noted in previous discussions this season, the Cats' play this season has been marked by:
• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.
• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.
• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported, and
• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage.
Through 26 D1 games this season, MISSISSIPPI is 18-8, AND 4-8 in SEC play. MISSISSIPPI carries a current RPI ranking of #45 and a RPI SOS of 0.5458 for all D1 games played. After twenty-five games, the Cats are 15-10, and 9-3 in the SEC with an RPI ranking of 64 [up 10 spots on the strength of Saturday's win over Arkansas] and a RPI SOS value of 0.5734.
Kentucky averages 77.9 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 79.7 possessions per game. MISSISSIPPI currently averages 88.0 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 84.1 possessions per game. MISSISSIPPI has been getting +3.9 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -1.8 per game. UK grabs an average 33.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MISSISSIPPI grabs an above average 39.1% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an average 32.1% of their misses as offensive rebounds while MISSISSIPPI allows its opponents an impressive 30.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds.
With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover on 20.6% of its possessions, and MISSISSIPPI commits turnovers on 14.6% of its possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers on only 16.7% of its opponent possessions while MISSISSIPPI forces one turnover for on only 17.3% of their opponents' possessions.
MISSISSIPPI 's offensive efficiency has been 0.903 ppp and 79.5 points per game. MISSISSIPPI 's defensive efficiency has been 0.860 ppp while holding opponents to 72.3 ppg. Their NGE is 0.044 ppp.
Kentucky has posted a stronger offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.892 ppp while scoring about 69.5 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.828 ppp on about 66.0 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.064 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5734 for UK and 0.5458 for MISSISSIPPI.
Based on this performance data for MISSISSIPPI and UK to date, which includes twenty-five regular season games for UK and twenty-six regular season D1 games for MISSISSIPPI, the Cats are a 9 point favorite, 76-67 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 81 possessions for UK and 84 possessions for MISSISSIPPI. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.938 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.798 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.141 ppp.
A game NGE greater than 0.200 ppp will be an impressive performance while a game NGE less than 0.100 ppp will be disappointing. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.
First Half Summary:
Coach Gillispie starts Patterson, Coury, Harris, Bradley, and Crawford. Meeks continues to have day to day status, and he did not see any action on Saturday against Arkansas. Jasper, and Stevenson should be available from the bench for this game, but Meeks is doubtful tonight. In addition, A J Stewart and Jared Carter have seen some limited action in recent games.
The Cats open this game by controlling the opening tip, and immediately going inside to Patterson for a bucket. A fast break by Crawford, and a three by Harris established an early 8-0 lead prompting a quick timeout by Mississippi with over 18 minutes to play. After the time out, neither team scored another point over their next 3 possessions, as the Cats took the 8-0 lead to the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment of the game, the Cats extended their lead to 12 points, 14-2, before Mississippi scored their second bucket of the segment to cut the lead back to 10 points, 14-4 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the early going, the Cats hold a +1 edge on turnovers, 2-3, but trail on the offensive boards 2-0, -2, for a 0-2 margin on second chance points. In the third segment, each team started to turn the ball over frequently, 3 for the Cats and 5 for the Rebels. However, the Cats outscored the Rebels 6-0 in the segment to extend their lead to 16 points, 20-4 at the under 8 TV timeout.
In the next segment, Mississippi scored only their third basket of the game, ending a drought that lasted about 7 minutes, but the Cats again extended their lead in this game during the segment to 21 points, 27-6 at the under 4 TV timeout. The pace of this game is under 70 possessions for the Cats, and almost 80 possessions for Mississippi due to Mississippi's 5-0 advantage on the offensive glass through the first 16 minutes of the game. Ole Miss finally showed some signs of life over the final 4 minutes of the first half, outscoring the Cats 8-4 to cut the lead to 17 points, 31-14 at the half.
The first half pace was about 66 possessions for Kentucky and 78 possessions for MISSISSIPPI. The Rebels controlled the boards in the first half, 17-13, +4, and 7-0 on the offensive boards, which produced an advantage of 0-6 for second chance points. Kentucky committed 8 turnovers in the first half, MISSISSIPPI committed 12 turnovers.
MISSISSIPPI scored its 14 points on 39 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0..359 ppp. Kentucky scored its 31 points on 33 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.939 ppp.
Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:
MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 54 Points. The first team to score its 54 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 23 points, while MISSISSIPPI needs 40 points. Kentucky scored their 54 th point on a Free throw by Jasper with 2:52 to play in the game and the Cats holding a 9 point lead, 55-46. The teams played out the final 2:52 of the game as the Cats secured their 9 th victory over their last 10 games 58-54.
Second Half Summary:
The Cats open the second half ice cold, and committing three quick turnovers on their first 7 possessions of the half. At the other end of the floor, Mississippi his a couple of three pointers, and cuts the one time 23 point lead [31-8] to only 9 points, 33-24 at the under 16 TV timeout. The Cats have now committed 11 turnovers for the game. Out of the timeout, two Kentucky misses coupled with a put back basket and an old fashioned three point play cut the lead to only 4 points, 33-29. The Rebels continue to pound and own the offensive glass, getting 6 more offensive rebounds producing 4 more second chance points in this segment of the game, and holding a commanding 0-13 advantage on the offensive glass for the game. The Cats hold on to a slim 7 point lead at the under 12 TV timeout, 38-31.
Out of the timeout, Patterson made both free throws, and following a Mississippi miss at the other end, Patterson got the Cats' first offensive rebound of the game, and the Cats' first second chance points to extend the lead back to 11 points, 42-31, prompting a quick Mississippi timeout with 10:41 to play in the game. Out of the timeout, the Cats extended their lead back into a comfortable 15 point range at the under 8 TV timeout, 47-32. In the fourth segment of the second half, Mississippi continued to use it rebounding superiority to score second chance points and whittle the Cats' lead from 15 to 10 points, 53-43 with 3:36 to play in the game at the under 4 TV timeout. Mississippi will be shooting free throws when play resumes. Mississippi cut the lead to 2 points, and had a possession with under 20 seconds to play with two shots at the basket, one that would have tied the game, and the other that could have given Mississippi the win, but both missed, and Bradley made two free throws to seal the win for the Cats.
Kentucky got destroyed on the boards for the game, losing the overall battle of the boards 42-26 and losing the offensive glass 20-2, -18 on offensive rebounds. Kentucky converted its 2 second chance opportunities into 2 second chance points and MISSISSIPPI used its 20 second chance opportunities to post 17 second chance points.
MISSISSIPPI scored its 54 points on 89 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.607 ppp. Kentucky scored its 58 points on 71 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.806 ppp. MISSISSIPPI had an offensive efficiency of 0.536 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 0.850 ppp for its 20 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.812 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 2 second chance possessions.
UK grabbed an anemic 8.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MISSISSIPPI was able to convert a powerful 45.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK shot very well from the free throw line, 20-26 for the game [76.9%]. MISSISSIPPI shot the well from the line for the game, 9-13 [69.2%] from the line today. UK's field goal shooting was poor for the game 17-41 [41.5%] overall, and UK shot poorly from long range, making 4 of 14 attempts [28.6%]. MISSISSIPPI's field goal shooting overall was about 31.3% [20-64], and a weak 5-22 [22.7%] from long range.
Kentucky committed 18 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 25.4% of their possessions. MISSISSIPPI committed 19 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 21.3% of their possessions.
Post Game Analysis:
Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky win, 76-67 [58-54] in a game with 81 and 84 possessions [71-89]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.938 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.817 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.798 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.607 ppp.
The Cats stand with a record of 16-10, 10-3 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:
• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. Today, the defensive effort was stronger than anticipated.
• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Today, the offense was weaker than anticipated despite a very strong start in the first 18 minutes of the game.
• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Today, the turnover rate reverted back to earlier season tendencies, as the turnover rate again exceeded 25% for the game.
• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. Today, the Cats were completed dominated on the boards by Mississippi, whereby Mississippi converted over 45% of its misses into second chance possessions while the Cats could only do so on about 8% of its misses.
Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and a “A” respectively as shown below:
UK – MISSISSIPPI GRADES
Next Game:
The Cats' next game will be Sunday afternoon, March 2, 2008 against Tennessee at Knoxville, Tennessee.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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