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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

30 Cats Host Pelphrey's Hogs at Rupp

Pre-Game Analysis:

Many years ago, I observed that great basketball games occur in 10 roughly equal segments, and that with each successive segment, the competitors crank up their intensity and their level of play. These great games culminate with one of the two teams emerging the winner at the end when the stakes and intensity are greatest. This season has been much the same for this Kentucky Wildcat team, and they have now completed 8 of those 10 game segments, the game remains in doubt, and the stakes continue to rise.

The question now occurs; will these Cats elevate their game on Saturday to match the rising stakes and swelling intensity that the match up with the Arkansas Razorbacks brings to the Rupp Arena floor. Much like a heavy weight boxer who was knocked to the canvas in two of the first 4 rounds of a 10 round fight, that boxer's fate hinges on how he responds to the challenge through rounds 5 to 10 that determines whether he can gain the title.

There can be little doubt to these Wildcats that their season long goal of playing in the NCAA tournament in March is again on the line, just as it has been since the second knock down at the hands of San Diego, nearly 2 months ago. There is no margin for error left for this team, and the Cats must defend their home hardwood.

Arkansas comes calling for the first time ever under the leadership of former Cat and Unforgettable John Pelphrey. Not only does he have his team playing very well, he has them positioned to win the SEC West in his first year at the helm, a marvelous accomplishment to be sure. A win for the Hogs at Kentucky would write them into the big dance without a doubt, but a loss in Lexington would not carry the same finality as a Wildcat loss would carry, but would place their #1 in the SEC West standing into jeopardy.

The Cats enter this game in sole possession of #2 in the SEC East, 8-3 behind Tennessee, 11-1, and ahead of Vanderbilt, 7-4, and Florida, 7-5.

As noted in previous discussions this season, the Cats' play this season has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported, and

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage.

Through 25 D1 games this season, ARKANSAS is 18-7, AND 6-4 in SEC play. ARKANSAS carries a current RPI ranking of #32 and a RPI SOS of 0.5620 for all D1 games played. After twenty-four games, the Cats are 14-10, and 8-3 in the SEC with an RPI ranking of 70 [up 2 spots on the strength of Tuesday's win over Georgia] and a RPI SOS value of 0.5715.

Kentucky averages 78.0 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 80.3 possessions per game. ARKANSAS currently averages 84.8 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 82.1 possessions per game. ARKANSAS has been getting –2.7 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -2.3 per game. UK grabs an average 33.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ARKANSAS grabs an above average 39.3% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an average 32.8% of their misses as offensive rebounds while ARKANSAS allows its opponents an impressive 32.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover on 20.8% of its possessions, and ARKANSAS commits turnovers on 19.0% of its possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers on only 16.7% of its opponent possessions while ARKANSAS forces one turnover for on only 19.6% of their opponents' possessions.

ARKANSAS 's offensive efficiency has been 0.876 ppp and 74.4 points per game. ARKANSAS 's defensive efficiency has been 0.799 ppp while holding opponents to 65.6 ppg. Their NGE is 0.077 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a stronger offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.894 ppp while scoring about 69.8 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.826 ppp on about 66.3 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.068 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5715 for UK and 0.5620 for ARKANSAS.

Based on this performance data for ARKANSAS and UK to date, which includes twenty-four regular season games for UK and twenty-five regular season D1 games for ARKANSAS, the Cats are a 6 point favorite, 72-66 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 80 possessions for UK and 83 possessions for ARKANSAS. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.900 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.795 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.105 ppp.

Game Summary:

Due to my good fortune to attend today's game, I do not have the usual real time commentary for this game, on the following post game summary.

The Cats won 63-58.

In the first half, Arkansas established an early lead in the first 4 minutes of the game and held that lead through the first 12 to 13 minutes. However, the Cats stayed close, never trailing by more than 5 points in the half before taking the lead in the last 7 minutes by holding the Hogs to only 3 points over the last 8 minutes of the half. The Cats led at halftime by 5 points, 27-22.

The second half started with a flurry of Kentucky turnovers that allowed the Hogs to make an 11-2 run in the first 4 minutes to regain the lead, and Arkansas played from the lead for most of the remainder of the game until the Cats took the lead with 1 ½ minutes to play, 57-55 on a Bradley jump shot from about 12 feet. The Cats then closed out their 8 th win over their last 9 games from the free throw line.

Kentucky owned the boards in game and won the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 37-24, and dominating the offensive glass 13-3, +10 on offensive rebounds. Kentucky converted its 13 second chance opportunities into 12 second chance points and ARKANSAS used its 3 second chance opportunities to post 1 second chance point.

ARKANSAS scored its 58 points on 65 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.892 ppp. Kentucky scored its 63 points on 76 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.829 ppp. ARKANSAS had an offensive efficiency of 0.919 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 0.333 ppp for its 3 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.810 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 0.923 ppp on its 13 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a powerful 38.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ARKANSAS was able to convert an anemic 11.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot very well from the free throw line, 20-27 for the game [74.1%]. ARKANSAS shot the well from the line for the game, 10-14 [71.4%] from the line today. UK's field goal shooting was poor for the game 20-51 [39.2%] overall, and UK shot poorly from long range, making 3 of 9 attempts [33.3%]. ARKANSAS's field goal shooting overall was about 42.6% [20-47], and a strong 8-18 [44.4%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 15.8% of their possessions. ARKANSAS committed 11 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 16.9% of their possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky win, 72-66 [63-58] in a game with 80 and 83 possessions [76-65]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.900 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.829 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.795 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.892 ppp.

The Cats stand with a record of 14-10, 8-3 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. Today, the defensive effort was weaker than anticipated.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Today, the offense was weaker than anticipated despite a very strong start.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Today, the turnover rate was much better than average, and better than the NCAA D1 average, an overall good effort.

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. Today, the Cats denied ARKANSAS on the offensive and defensive glass. Prior to today, Arkansas had been a powerful rebounding team all season.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and a “D+” respectively as shown below:

UK – ARKANSAS GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats' next game will be Wednesday night, February 27, 2008 against Mississippi at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Thirty One

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Cats Return To Rupp For Georgia Rematch

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