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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings
29 Cats Return Rupp For Rematch With Georgia
Pre-Game Analysis:
Seventeen days ago, the Kentucky Wildcats traveled to Athens, Georgia looking to take their newfound success on the road to demonstrate an ability to win basketball games outside of Rupp Arena. Entering that game, the Cats had won two in a row at Rupp, defeating the league leading Tennessee Volunteers and a scrappy South Carolina team fighting to justify their retiring coach. However, the Cats were nursing a 9-9 overall record and a fragile 3-2 SEC start, having lost their two previous SEC road games. However, fragile records were not the only things that the Wildcat camp has been nursing, as injuries to Meeks continued to prevent him from playing, and Joe Crawford was hobbling due to a heel injury.
As if the depleted ranks of players going into the game was not enough, the original Iron Cat, Ramel Bradley, was taken out of the game by an intentional foul [from behind] on a run out scoring attempt after only 11 minutes of the game with Georgia. The Cats played the last 29 minutes without Iron Cat Bradley, and they played the last 5 minutes of the game without his Iron Cat running mate Crawford after he sustained severe cramps.
Despite these difficulties, the Cats accomplished their primary goal for that game by leaving Athens, Georgia with their first road win of the season, 4-2 in the SEC, and 10-9 overall, to establish a winning record for the first time since December 15, 2007 when the Cats fell to UAB at Freedom hall to fall back to 4-4. The Cats have not fallen back to a 50% win-lose record this year since and given the forecasts for these final 6 games, probably will not again find itself at 50% or below again this year.
Georgia was not a turning point game because the Cats had established their turn around several games earlier, but the win at Athens was a huge accomplishment for this team given all the circumstances of that game. Tonight, these teams lock up again. This time at Rupp Arena, and this time the Cats are as close to “full strength” as they have been all season long. Bradley has recovered from his gashed chin and concussion that he sustained at the hands of the Georgia player. Crawford is either free of pain, or literally toughing it out and playing his game despite the pain. Meeks has returned to action, in both games and practice over the last 7 days.
The Cats enter this game in sole possession of #2 in the SEC East, 7-3 behind Tennessee, 10-1, and ahead of Vanderbilt, 7-4, and Florida, 6-5. As Coach Gillispie has been saying for several weeks, the Cats have very little margin for error, and a loss to Georgia tonight is outside that margin. The Cats must win tonight to keep their hopes of an at large bid to the NCAA tournament alive.
As noted in previous discussions this season, the Cats' play this season has been marked by:
• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.
• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.
• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported, and
• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage.
Through 22 D1 games this season, GEORGIA is 11-11, AND 3-7 in SEC play. GEORGIA carries a current RPI ranking of #120 and a RPI SOS of 0.5640 for all D1 games played. After twenty-three games, the Cats are 13-10, and 7-3 in the SEC with an RPI ranking of 72 [up 12 spots on the strength of Saturday's win at LSU] and a RPI SOS value of 0.5725.
Kentucky averages 78.3 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 80.3 possessions per game. GEORGIA currently averages 83.0 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 80.1 possessions per game. GEORGIA has been getting –2.9 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -2.0 per game. UK grabs an average 33.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA grabs a below average 34.8% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an average 33.1% of their misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA allows its opponents a stingy 28.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds.
With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover on 21.1% of its possessions, and GEORGIA commits turnovers on 18.6% of its possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers on only 16.9% of its opponent possessions while GEORGIA forces one turnover for on only 17.6% of their opponents' possessions.
GEORGIA 's offensive efficiency has been 0.825 ppp and 68.5 points per game. GEORGIA 's defensive efficiency has been 0.823 ppp while holding opponents to 65.9 ppg. Their NGE is 0.002 ppp.
Kentucky has posted a stronger offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.896 ppp while scoring about 70.2 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.832 ppp on about 66.8 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.064 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5725 for UK and 0.5640 for GEORGIA.
Based on this performance data for GEORGIA and UK to date, which includes twenty-three regular season games for UK and twenty-two regular season D1games for GEORGIA, the Cats are a 11 point favorite, 73-62 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 79 possessions for UK and 82 possessions for GEORGIA. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.924 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.756 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.168 ppp.
A game NGE greater than 0.225 ppp will be an impressive performance while a game NGE less than 0.125 ppp will be disappointing. The pre-game magic number is 69 points.
First Half Summary:
Coach Gillispie starts Patterson, Coury, Harris, Bradley, and Crawford. Meeks saw some action against LSU and practiced well on Sunday, but Monday's practice was not as effective. Jasper, and Stevenson should be available from the bench for this game, but Meeks is doubtful tonight. In addition, A J Stewart has seen limited action in the last two games, and Jared Carter made a brief appearance at LSU. Perhaps Coach will utilize a 10 player rotation in tonight's game.
The Cats open by hitting their first 4 shots including three straight three pointers by Joe Crawford to race out to an early 12-2 lead prompting a quick Georgia timeout. After the timeout, the Cats continued their assault and expanded their lead to 16-4 at the under 16 TV timeout with under 14 minutes to play. In the abbreviated second segment, the Cats extended their lead to 14 points, 20-6 at the under 12 TV timeout. The pace is about 75 to 85 possessions for UK and UGA respectively. In the third segment, Georgia finally settled down and began to score points on a regular basis, cutting the 14 point lead back to 9 points, 23-14, and the Cats lead by 11 points, 25-14 at the under 8 TV timeout.
In the fourth segment, Georgia continues to climb its way back into this ball game, outscoring the Cats 11-4, to cut the lead to 4 points, 29 – 25 at the under 4 TV timeout. After getting off to an outstanding start, Georgia is using a 7-3 offensive rebounding advantage to cut the lead from 14 to 4 points. The Cats close the half in a strong manner, to take a 7 point lead, 37-30 to the locker room.
The first half pace was about 66 possessions for Kentucky and 80 possessions for the GEORGIA. The Dawgs controlled the boards in the first half, 9-3, +6 which produced an advantage of 10-4 for second chance points. Kentucky committed 4 turnovers in the first half, GEORGIA committed 5 turnovers.
GEORGIA scored its 30 points on 40 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.750 ppp. Kentucky scored its 37 points on 33 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.121 ppp.
Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:
MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 71 Points. The first team to score its 71 st point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 34 points, while GEORGIA needs 41 points. Neither team reached the 71 st point tonight due to the poor overall offensive efficiencies by both teams in the second half.
Second Half Summary:
The teams begin the second half on pretty even terms, with each team scoring 4 points in the first segment, and the Cats maintained their 7 point lead, 41-34 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, the Cats stretched their 7 point lead to 9 points, 48-39 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the third segment, the Cats maintained their lead even though Georgia did cut the lead to 5 points on one occasion, 52-47, the cats lead 55-47 at the under 8 TV timeout. A pair of free throws, a three pointer coupled with a pair of Kentucky turnovers cut the Kentucky lead to only 3 points, and possession to Georgia with 5:01 to play in the game and the score 55-52. Out of the timeout, neither team was able to score to the under 4 TV timeout, with 3:25 to play. The Cats won 61-55.
Kentucky owned the boards in the second half and won the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 40-38, but GEORGIA controlled the offensive boards for the game, 15-10, -5. Kentucky converted its 10 second chance opportunities into 16 second chance points and GEORGIA used its 15 second chance opportunities to post 12 second chance points.
GEORGIA scored its 55 points on 77 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.714 ppp. Kentucky scored its 61 points on 71 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.859 ppp. GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.634 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 0.800 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.738 ppp on its 61 first chance possessions and 1.600 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions.
UK grabbed a weak 30.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA was able to convert an average 33.3% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK shot very well from the free throw line, 13-18 for the game [72/2%] including 4-4 down the stretch run to secure the victory. GEORGIA shot the well from the line for the game, 6-8 [75.0%] from the line today. UK's field goal shooting was very poor for the game after a blistering beginning, shooting 22-54 [40.7%] overall, and UK shot very poor from long range, making 4 of 14 attempts [28.6%]. GEORGIA's field goal shooting overall was about 32.3% [21-65], and a fair 7-20 [35.0%] from long range.
Kentucky committed 8 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 11.3% of their possessions. GEORGIA committed 10 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 13.0% of their possessions.
Post Game Analysis:
Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky loss, 73-62 [61-55] in a game with 79 and 82 possessions [71-77]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.924 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.859 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.756 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.714 ppp.
The Cats stand with a record of 14-10, 8-3 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:
• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. Today, the defensive effort was stronger than anticipated.
• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Today, the offense was weaker than anticipated despite a very strong start.
• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Tonight, the Cats controlled their turnovers very well, committing only 8 for the entire game.
• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. Today, the Cats allowed GEORGIA team to own the offensive boards and convert 15 offensive rebounds into 12 second chance points, not a good performance.
Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and a “B-” respectively as shown below:
UK – GEORGIA GRADES
Next Game:
The Cats' next game will be Saturday afternoon, February 23, 2008 against Arkansas at Rupp Arena.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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