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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

28 Cats Return To the Road For the Sixth Time in Last Nine Games
Face a Must Win Situation at LSU

Pre-Game Analysis:

Reversals of fortunes may be the theme of today's game between the UK Wildcats and the LSU Tigers. One week ago, the Cats were the team on the move, having won 5 in a row, poised to travel to Nashville for their rematch against a Vanderbilt team that the Cats had handled at Rupp a month earlier. The national press was chattering about the Cats return to the NCAA picture.

At the opposite corner of the SEC was down in Louisiana, the LSU Tigers were obviously heading in the opposite direction, with only one SEC win and a mid-season firing of their head coach. The only chatter about the LSU Tigers was how bad their situation had become less than two years removed from a Final Four appearance.

Goodness, what a difference a week can make in this game. LSU nearly pulled off the upset of the year, perhaps decade, last Saturday evening, falling to Tennessee by only 2 points primarily due to a series of mental errors in the last 30 seconds of a game that LSU should have won, and on Wednesday night, these Tigers traveled to Gainesville and defeated the mighty Gators by 12. Meanwhile, the Cats' excursion to Music City was anything but delightful, as the “perfect storm” formed over Vanderbilt's Memorial Gym and the Cats received a beating for the ages, losing by 41 points 93-52.

A week ago, most Cat fans viewed this final road game in a series of six over a nine game span as the opportunity to cap off an impressive run of either 7-2 or 6-3, to send a clear message to the rest of the SEC that the Cats again are a force. However, the up surging Tigers now pose a legitimate threat to the Cats, regardless of the drubbing in Nashville. Add to the Tigers' up surge the fact that Vanderbilt deflated many of the Cats' balloons, and today's match up in the Bayou becomes the most recent of many recent “must win” games for the Cats.

The Cats enter this game in sole possession of #2 in the SEC East, 6-3 behind Tennessee, 9-1, and ahead of Florida, 6-4 and Vanderbilt, 6-4. As Coach Gillispie has been saying for several weeks, the Cats have very little margin for error, and frankly a loss to LSU this season is outside that margin. The Cats must win today to keep their hopes of an at large bid to the NCAA tournament alive. Never before in my memory has a road game against arguably the worst team in the SEC ever meant so much or been so doubtful.

As noted in previous discussions this season, the Cats' play this season has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported, and

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage.

Through 22 D1 games this season, LSU is 8-14, AND 2-7 in SEC play. LSU carries a current RPI ranking of #176 and a RPI SOS of 0.5557 for all D1 games played. After twenty-two games, the Cats are 12-10, and 6-3 in the SEC with an RPI ranking of 84 [up 3 spots despite Tuesday's pole axing by Vanderbilt] and a RPI SOS value of 0.5763.

Kentucky averages 78.8 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 80.5 possessions per game. LSU currently averages 79.9 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 82.8 possessions per game. LSU has been getting –2.9 fewer offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -1.7 per game. UK grabs an average 33.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LSU grabs a below average 30.6% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an average 32.9% of their misses as offensive rebounds while LSU allows its opponents a huge 36.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover on 21.2% of its possessions, and LSU averages turn overs on 18.2% of its possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers on only 17.1% of its opponent possessions while LSU forces one turnover for on only 17.2% of their opponents' possessions.

LSU 's offensive efficiency has been 0.853 ppp and 68.1 points per game. LSU 's defensive efficiency has been 0.833 ppp while holding opponents to 68.9 ppg. Their NGE is 0.021 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a stronger offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.893 ppp while scoring about 70.3 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.833 ppp on about 67.0 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.060 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5763 for UK and 0.5557 for LSU .

Based on this performance data for LSU and UK to date, which includes twenty-two regular season games for UK and twenty-two regular season D1games for LSU, the Cats are a 1 point underdog, 68-69 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 81 possessions for UK and 80 possessions for LSU. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.840 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.863 ppp, for a game NGE of –0.023 ppp.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie starts Patterson, Coury, Harris, Bradley, and Crawford. Meeks saw some action against Vanderbilt on Tuesday and has said that he is now able to play. In addition, reports from the Kentucky camp this week have been that Meeks has returned to active practice activity this week. Jasper, Stevenson, and Meeks will be available from the bench for this game.

The Cats start off much as they have started so many games this season, with 2 turnovers in the first segment of the game, but strong early shooting has kept them close, at 8-7 LSU. LSU leads on the offensive glass 3-1 and 4-2 on second chance points in the early going. In the second segment, LSU extended their early lead to 5 points, 12-7 before the Cats stopped the Tiger 8 point run with a basket to cut the lead back to 3 points, 12-9 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the early going, the pace is about 65 to 70 possessions, each teams has 2 turnovers, and 3 offensive rebounds. The teams played on even terms during the third segment, but the Cats did cut the LSU lead to one point, 16-15 just before and LSU basket re-established the 3 point lead, 18-15 at the under 8 TV timeout.

The Cats are only shooting the ball at about a 41% rate while LSU is hitting the basket on about 53% of its attempts. Patrick Patterson and Jasper each have picked up 2 early fouls. In the fourth segment, the Cats cut the lead to 1 point two more times, the last at 21-20, but back to back baskets by LSU each following UK turnovers, extended the lead back to the maximum 5 point level, 25-20 at the under 4 TV timeout. The Cats have committed 6 turnovers to LSU's 5, and the teams have battled on 4-4 even terms on the offensive glass thus far. The difference in this game is the shooting, 41% for UK v 50% for LSU. After a Carter bucket cut the lead back to 3 points, a LSU three pointer gave the Tigers their largest lead of the day, 6 points, 28-22. However, a pair of Meeks three pointers cut the lead back to 2 points, 30-28 just before the half.

The first half pace was about 66 possessions for Kentucky and 74 possessions for the LSU. The Tigers controlled the boards in the first half, 18-14, and the Tigers won the battle of the offensive glass, 7-4, +3 which produced an advantage of 8-2 for second chance points. Kentucky committed 7 turnovers in the first half, one 21.2% of their possessions. LSU committed 6 turnover, one for 16.2% of their possessions.

Kentucky shot the ball very poorly for most of the half, but ended the half 12-26 [46.2%] overall and a strong 4-8 [50.0%] from long range. LSU shot the ball well for most of the half, but ended the half 14-31 [45.2%] overall, and LSU shot the ball poorly from long range, 2-9 [22.2%].

LSU scored its 30 points on 37 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.811 ppp. Kentucky scored its 28 points on 33 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.848 ppp.

There was only one free throw for the entire half by both teams, and that was attempted by Patterson, which he missed.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 60 Points. The first team to score its 60 h point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 32 points, while LSU needs 30 points. LSU scored its 60 th points on a bank shot by Crawford with 3:00 to play in the game and the Cats holding a 4 point lead, 61-57. The teams played out the last 3:00 of the game as Kentucky secured the win, 67-63.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats open the second half by hitting 4 of their first 8 shots, and getting 4 second chance points on 3 offensive rebounds to outscore the Tigers 9-1 prompting a timeout by LSU with 16:48 to play in the game, 37-31. Out of the timeout, LSU failed to score on a three pointer and two successive second chance shots inside the lane, and the Cats converted at the other end on a back door to Bradley to extend the lead to 8 points, 39-31 at the under 16 TV timeout. After swapping baskets LSU cut the 8 point Kentucky lead back to 4 points on the strength of two three pointers of their own, and at the under 12 TV timeout, the Cats continue to hold to that 4 point lead, 47-42 with Crawford to shoot two free throws when play resumes.

After Crawford made both free throws, LSU scored the next 8 points primarily on the strength [or weakness] of three straight Kentucky turnovers to regain the lead, 51-49. A Patterson basket tied the score at 51-51 just prior to the under 8 TV timeout. A pair of three pointers moved the Cats back into the lead in the fourth segment, and at the under 4 TV timeout, the Cats continue to cling to a 4 point lead, 59-55 with 3:20 to play in the game. LSU will have 2 free throws when play resumes.

After making both free throws, Crawford reestablished the 4 point lead with a fall away bank shot with about 3 minutes to play. A LSU miss, followed by a Kentucky turnover, cut the lead back to 2 points. Crawford missed the front end and LSU made one of two at the other end to cut the lead to 1 point. Another Kentucky turnover gives LSU the ball with 54 seconds to play, down 1 point. LSU missed on a quick three pointer, and Jasper converted both free throws after being fouled to extend the Kentucky lead to 3 points with about 25 seconds to play in the game. The final score is a Kentucky win, 67-63.

Kentucky owned the boards in the second half and won the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 41-33, but LSU controlled the offensive boards for the game, 15-8, -7. Kentucky converted its 8 second chance opportunities into 8 second chance points and LSU used its 15 second chance opportunities to post 18 second chance points.

LSU scored its 63 points on 77 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.818 ppp. Kentucky scored its 67 points on 69 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.971 ppp. LSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.726 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 1.200 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.967 ppp on its 61 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a weak 30.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LSU was able to convert a powerful 39.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot very well from the free throw line, 8-10 for the game [80.0%] including 6-6 down the stretch run to secure the victory. LSU shot the well from the line for the game, 8-10 [80.0%] from the line today. UK's field goal shooting was very good for the game, shooting 26-51 [51.0%] overall, and UK shot very well from long range, making 7 of 14 attempts [50.0%]. LSU's field goal shooting overall was about 40.3% [25-62], and a weak 5-18 [27.8%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 13 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 18.8% of their possessions. LSU committed 10 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 13.0% of their possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky loss, 68-69 [67-63] in a game with 81and 80 possessions [69-77]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.840 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.971 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.863 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.818 ppp.

The Cats stand with a record of only 13-10, 7-3 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. Today, the defensive effort was stronger than anticipated.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Today, the offense was stronger than anticipated

•  Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Today, the Cats protected the ball possession better than average for the season, but still committed too many turnovers.

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. Today, the Cats allowed a poor rebounding LSU team to own the offensive boards and convert 15 offensive rebounds into 18 second chance points, not a good performance.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a “B-” respectively as shown below:

UK – LSU GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats' next game will be Tuesday night, February 19, 2008 against Georgia at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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