07-1 Preseason Forecast

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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

27
Cats Start Second Half of SEC Season With Huge
SEC East Match up at Vanderbilt

Pre-Game Analysis:

The Cats are currently riding the crest of their longest winning streak of the season, 5 games. The SEC season started about a month ago when the Cats handed the Commodores their first loss of the season at Rupp Arena in double overtime. Tonight, these same two teams face off in Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville at both teams begin their stretch run that both hope ends with post season play in the NCAA tournament in March.

Coach Gillispie has been clear from the beginning of this season that his focus is squarely placed on the next game, in this case this game against Vanderbilt. There is little doubt that Coach Stallings has a similar focus on tonight's match with the Cats. Both teams need to win this game tonight, but only one of these teams will leave the floor victorious.

The Cats' comeback over the last 8 to 10 games has received national notice over the last 3 days. At the depths of this season, the Kentucky Wildcats found themselves in unprecedented RPI territory, ranked #241. Entering this game, the Cats have risen to #87, and a victory tonight over the Vanderbilt Commodores will propel the Cats at least 20 more spots upward, toward that rare territory of the top 50. A loss tonight will delay and retard their rapid rise, but not kill the upward momentum.

The Cats enter this game in sole possession of #2 in the SEC East, 6-2 behind Tennessee, 8-1, and ahead of Florida, 6-3 and Vanderbilt, 5-4. A home loss to a contender will effectively take Vanderbilt out of the SEC East chase, and a loss by the Cats will drop them into a temporary tie with the Gators for the second place spot. However, a Kentucky win tonight will solidify the Cats' hold on the second spot, and reinforce the message that the Cats are back.

Nothing has come easy for this Kentucky team, but given the grit, and determination that this team has adopted from their head coach, why would anyone expect an easy path. Meeks is still sidelined, but Coach did indicate that Meeks practiced with the team on Monday. Harris, Bradley and Crawford have returned to action, and Coach does not seem to believe that either players' prior injuries are factors at this time.

As noted in previous discussions this season, the Cats' play this season has been marked by:

• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.

• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.

• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported, and

• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage.

Through 24 D1 games this season, VANDERBILT is 20-4, AND 5-4 in SEC play. VANDERBILT carries a current RPI ranking of #12 and a RPI SOS of 0.5539 for all D1 games played. After twenty-one games, the Cats are 12-9, and 6-2 in the SEC with an RPI ranking of 87 [up 10 spots by virtue of Saturday's win] and a RPI SOS value of 0.5699.

Kentucky averages 78.6 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 80.5 possessions per game. VANDERBILT currently averages 86.1 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 87.9 possessions per game. VANDERBILT has been getting –1.8 fewer offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -1.9 per game. UK grabs an average 34.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while VANDERBILT grabs an average 32.6% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 32.7% of their misses as offensive rebounds while VANDERBILT allows its opponents 34.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each .4.7 possessions, and VANDERBILT averages one turnover for each 5.5 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers at a rate of one for each 5.7 opponent possessions while VANDERBILT forces one turnover for each 5.6 opponent possessions. VANDERBILT 's offensive efficiency has been 0.942 ppp and 81.1 points per game. VANDERBILT 's defensive efficiency has been 0.852 ppp while holding opponents to 74.9 ppg. Their NGE is 0.090 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a weaker offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.905 ppp while scoring about 71.2 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.817 ppp on about 65.8 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.089 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5699 for UK and 0.5539 for VANDERBILT .

Based on this performance data for VANDERBILT and UK to date, which includes twenty-one regular season games for UK and twenty-four regular season games for VANDERBILT, the Cats are a 5 point underdog, 71-76 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 83 possessions for UK and 83 possessions for VANDERBILT. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.855 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.916 ppp, for a game NGE of –0.060 ppp.

A game NGE greater than 0.000 ppp will be an impressive performance while a game NGE less than –0.120 ppp will be disappointing. The pre-game magic number is 73 points.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie starts Patterson, Coury, Harris, Bradley, and Crawford. Bradley is back, and Meeks has gone through the pre-game warm-ups and may be available to play some tonight. Harris, injured in the last game will again start the game. Jasper, Stevenson, and to some extent Meeks will be available from the bench for this game.

The Cats open ice cold (1-5) and commit two quick turnovers, while Vandy opens red hold [5-7) as Vanderbilt races out to an early 9 point lead, 12-3, at the under 16 TV timeout. Coach Gillispie has inserted Stevenson, Stewart, and Jasper into the lineup in the first 3 minutes of the game. The second segment was simply more of the same bad news, poor shooting by the Cats, coupled with two more turnovers, countered by continued great shooting by Vanderbilt, and no turnovers, for a 21-6, 15-point lead at the under 12 TV timeout. The pace of the game is more suited to Kentucky's preferences for this game, but Vandy's 75% shooting verses Kentucky's 25% shooting, 4-0 turnovers has been the total story of this game. Vanderbilt continues the onslaught in the next segment, extending the lead to 19 points, 25-6 prompting a Kentucky timeout with 8:13 to play in the first half. At the under 8 TV timeout, the score remained the same.

In the first 12 minutes of the game, the Cats have only had 9 shots at the basket, compared to Vandy's 16 shots. The Cats have only made 2 shots, while Vandy has made 10, one more made basket than the Cats have attempts. Turnovers are the reason for this disparity in shot attempts, 8-1, or +7 in Vandy's favor. Offensive rebounds are even at 2 for the teams. In the last 4 minutes, the Cats have only gotten off one shot, given all the turnovers. Out of the timeout, the situation does not improve for the Cats at all, as Vandy continues its run, to 28-6 prompting another Kentucky timeout with 6:16 to play in the first half. In the fourth segment, Vandy continued their complete and absolute dominance of the Cats, extending their lead to 29 points, 37-8 at the under 8 TV timeout with 3:09 to play in the first half. For the first time this season, Patterson has gotten into foul trouble, picking up 3 fouls in the first half. Coach Gillispie put Patterson on the bench for awhile, but Patterson returned to the game with 2:12 to play. For the last two minutes, Coach Gillispie moved Patterson in and out of the game on alternating offensive and defensive sets. At the half, Vandy leads by 30 points, 41-11.

The first half pace was about 64 possessions for Kentucky and 66 possessions for the VANDERBILT. The Commodores controlled the boards in the first half, 14-10, and the teams fought on even terms on the offensive glass, 3-3, but the Commodores has used their second chance opportunities more efficiently than the Cats, earning a 4-2 advantage in second chance points Kentucky committed 12 turnovers in the first half, one for every 2.7 possessions. VANDERBILT committed 1 turnover, one for each 33.0 possessions.

Kentucky shot the ball very poorly during the first half, 3-15 [20.0%] overall and a poor 1-3 [33.3%] from long range. VANDERBILT shot the ball well for the half, 15-26 [57.7%] overall, and VANDERBILT shot the ball well from long range, 3-8 [37.5%].

VANDERBILT scored its 41 points on 33 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.242 ppp. Kentucky scored its 11 points on 32 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.344 ppp.

In the first half, UK was 1-3 from the free throw line [33.3%], and VANDERBILT was 8-11 [72.7%] from the free throw line.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 67 Points. The first team to score its 67 h point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 56 points, while VANDERBILT needs 26 points. Vanderbilt scored its 67 th points on a free throw by Beal with 10:26 to play in the game and the Commodores holding a 42 point lead, 67-25. The teams played out the last 10:26 of the game as Vanderbilt secured the win, 93-52.

Second Half Summary:

The second half begins much the same way as the first have started and ended, All Vandy All of the Time, as Vandy outscored the Cats 14-3 in the opening segment, to extend their embarrassing lead from 30 points to 41 points at the under 16 TV timeout. Patterson picked up his 4 th personal foul just before the TV timeout. In the second segment of the second half, trailing by 41 points, the Cats finally played even with the Commodores for a 4 minute game segment, 9-9, to prevent Vandy from extending the lead further beyond the already embarrassing 41 points. In the next segment, the teams again played on even terms, and Vandy led by 40 points, 73-43 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the fourth segment, Vandy extended their lead to 43 points, 84-41 at the under 4 TV timeout with 3:38 to play in the game. The final score was 93-52, 41 points.

Vanderbilt won the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 28-20, but Kentucky controlled the offensive boards for the game, 10-7, +3. Kentucky converted its 10 second chance opportunities into 6 second chance points and VANDERBILT used its 7 second chance opportunities to post 10 second chance points.

VANDERBILT scored its 93 points on 80 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.163 ppp. Kentucky scored its 52 points on 81 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.642 ppp. VANDERBILT had an offensive efficiency of 1.137 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 1.429 ppp for its 7 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.648 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 0.600 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a weak 26.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while VANDERBILT was able to convert an even weaker 25.9% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the free throw line, 17-25 for the game [68.0%]. VANDERBILT shot the well from the line until Coach Stallings emptied his bench, and for the game, Vanderbilt was 24-35 [68.6%] from the line today. UK's field goal shooting was pitiful for the game, shooting 17-42 [32.7%] overall, and UK shot poorly from long range, making 1 of 10 attempts [10.0%]. VANDERBILT's field goal shooting overall was about 55.4% [31-56], and a strong 7-16 [43.8%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 17 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.8 possessions. VANDERBILT committed 6 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 13.3 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky loss, 71-76 [52-93] in a game with 83 and 83 possessions [81-80]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.855 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.642 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.916 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 1.163 ppp.

This season is now over 2/3 complete, and the SEC season is not ½ complete, and the Cats stand with a record of only 12-10, 6-3 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:

• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. Today, the defensive effort pitiful from the initial tip to the final horn.

• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Today, the offense struggled in every respect. Poor ball handling, poor shooting, and poor free throw shooting.

• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Tonight the Cats did not take care of the ball, especially in the first half when the outcome was settled long before half time arrived.

• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. Tonight, the Cats got rebounded Vanderbilt on the offensive glass, but both teams only grabbed about 25 to 26 percent of their own misses, e.g. neither team went strong to the boards.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “E” and a “E” respectively as shown below:

UK – VANDERBILT GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats' next game will be Saturday afternoon, February 16, 2008 against LSU in Baton Rouge.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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