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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings
26
Cats Return To Rupp Riding A Four Game Winning Streak
#2 in SEC East
Pre-Game Analysis:
Over the past week, the Cats packed their bags, traveled to Georgia and Auburn, and returned home with two huge SEC road wins safely tucked away. The wins have made huge contributions in the Cats' meteoric rise in the RPI ranking system, from #241 prior to the Louisville game to #97 following this weeks' twin victories. If the UK RPI ranking was a new song on the Pop Charts, it would be #97 with a bullet, because their rise has not topped out yet.
The Cats return to Rupp Arena on Saturday to take on SEC West Alabama. The Cats enter this game in sole possession of #2 in the SEC East, behind Tennessee, 5-2 in the conference and riding the crest of a 4 game winning wave after nearly drowning through their non-conference schedule with a 6-7 record and embarrassing home losses to cupcakes. Alabama on the other hand navigated their non-conference schedule with relative ease, 11-4, with losses to Clemson, Georgetown, Texas A&M, and a better than average Belmont team. However, since the beginning of SEC competition, the Tide's fortunes have reversed, and Alabama currently stands with a 2-6 conference record, having beaten only SEC West doormats Auburn and LSU in Tuscaloosa.
Nothing is coming easy for this Kentucky team, but given the grit, and determination that this team has adopted from their head coach, why would anyone expect an easy path. Meeks continue to be sidelined, and Bradley missed the Auburn game on Wednesday night. Crawford continues to gut it out and play with pain in his foot, and fatigue. Despite all of this, the Iron Cats continue to find ways to win the games.
A Modern-day personification of TRUE GRIT, and John Wayne would be proud of this group for sure.
Alabama currently stands with an 13-10 against D1 opponents, and 2-6 in the SEC. Alabama's most impressive win of this season was over Iowa State on a neutral court by 15 points.
As noted in previous discussions this season, the Cats' play this season has been marked by:
• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.
• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.
• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported, and
• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage.
Through 23 D1 games this season, ALABAMA is 13-10, AND 2-6 in SEC play as noted above. ALABAMA carries a current RPI ranking of #107 and a RPI SOS of 0.5509 for all D1 games played. After twenty games, the Cats are 11-9, and 5-2 in the SEC with an RPI ranking of 97 [up 17 spots by virtue of Wednesday's win] and a RPI SOS value of 0.5636.
Kentucky averages 79.1 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 81.0 possessions per game. ALABAMA currently averages 84.7 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 81.5 possessions per game. ALABAMA has been getting 3.2 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -1.9 per game. UK grabs an average 34.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ALABAMA grabs an average 36.2% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 33.1% of their misses as offensive rebounds while ALABAMA allows its opponents 32.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds.
With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each .4.8 possessions, and ALABAMA averages one turnover for each 6.7 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers at a rate of one for each 5.7 opponent possessions while ALABAMA forces one turnover for each 6.1 opponent possessions. ALABAMA 's offensive efficiency has been 0.908 ppp and 76.9 points per game. ALABAMA 's defensive efficiency has been 0.897 ppp while holding opponents to 73.1 ppg. Their NGE is 0.011 ppp.
Kentucky has posted a slightly weaker offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.908 ppp while scoring about 71.7 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.821 ppp on about 66.5 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.085 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5636 for UK and 0.5509 for ALABAMA .
Based on this performance data for ALABAMA and UK to date, which includes twenty regular season games for UK and twenty-three regular season D1 games for ALABAMA, the Cats are a 12 point favorite, 78-66 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 80 possessions for UK and 83 possessions for ALABAMA. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.975 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.795 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.180 ppp.
A game NGE greater than 0.225 ppp will be an impressive performance while a game NGE less than 0.125 ppp will be disappointing. The pre-game magic number is 73 points.
First Half Summary:
Coach Gillispie starts Patterson, Coury, Harris, Bradley, and Crawford. Bradley is back, and Meeks remains doubtful. Jasper and Stevenson will be available from the bench for this game.
As has been the case so often this season, the Cats begin this game with 3 turnovers on their first 6 possessions of the game, but perfect shooting from the floor keeps them in the game. At the under 16 TV timeout, the Alabama holds to a 1 point lead, 8-7, with Patterson on the line for one shot when play resumes. In the second segment, the Cats' great shooting disappeared, but their propensity for turnovers did not, and Alabama moved out to a 5 point lead, 14-9 and again 16-11 at the under 12 TV timeout with 10:48 to play in the first half of the game. The early pace is about 80 possessions for both teams, but the Cats' are being out shot overall, and from long range, accounting for the difference. The 6 Cat turnovers is one for every 3 possessions. In the third segment, the Cats' poor shooting and poor ball handling continue as Alabama extends its lead from 5 to 6 points at the under 8 TV timeout, 19-13. The game has slowed to about 73 to 75 possession pace, and the Cats have hit only 6 of 14 attempts after starting 3-3 in the first 3 minutes of the game. Alabama is 8-17 overall. After Alabama extended their lead to 8 points, 23-15, back to back three pointers by Bradley cut the lead to 2 points, prompting an Alabama timeout with 5:21 to play in the half. Those are the first three pointers of the game today by the Cats, on 9 attempts.
Out of the ‘Bama timeout, the Tide turned back the Kentucky mini-run and secured their lead at 3 points, 25-22 at the under 4 TV timeout. The Kentucky turnover parade has continued, with a total of 12 after the first 16 minutes of play. A Crawford jumper in traffic with 6 second s to play gave the Cats their first and only lead of the first half, 28-27, as the Cats outscored Alabama 13-4 following that 23-15 maximum Alabama lead.
The first half pace was about 72 possessions for Kentucky and 70 possessions for the ALABAMA. The Cats controlled the boards in the first half, 16-12, and the teams fought on even terms on the offensive glass, 3-3, but the Tide has used their second chance opportunities more efficiently than the Cats, earning a 4-2 advantage in second chance points Kentucky committed 12 turnovers in the first half, one for every 3.1 possessions. ALABAMA committed 8 turnovers, one for each 4.4 possessions.
Kentucky shot the ball very well during the first half, 11-21 [52.4%] overall and a poor 2-9 [22.2%] from long range. ALABAMA shot the ball well for the half, 12-26 [46.2%] overall, but ALABAMA shot the ball poorly from long range, 2-11 [18.2%].
ALABAMA scored its 27 points on 35 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0771 ppp. Kentucky scored its 28 points on 36 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.778 ppp.
In the first half, UK was 4-8 from the free throw line [50.0%], and ALABAMA was 1-3 [33.3%] from the free throw line.
Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:
MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 56 Points. The first team to score its 56 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 28 points, while ALABAMA needs 29 points. Kentucky scored its 56 th points on a free throw by Crawford with 2:15 to play in the game and the Cats holding a 15 point lead, 57-42. The teams played out the last 2:15 of the game as the Cats secured their first consecutive win, 62-52.
Second Half Summary:
The Cats opened the second half with a basket by Crawford, extending their fragile lead to 3 points, but a ‘Bama three pointer tied the score at 30, and the teams played on even terms for the rest of the first segment, 32-32 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, the Cats outscored Alabama 6-0 to extend their early, fragile second half lead to 6 points, 38-32 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the third segment, the Cats continued to extend their lead, outscoring the Tide 6-4 during the segment to build the lead to 8 points, 44-36 at the under 8 TV timeout, actually called by Alabama following a Jasper three pointer.
In the fourth segment of the second half, the Cats continued their methodical play over the Tide, outscoring Alabama 9-6, to take an 11 point lead into the under 4 TV timeout, leading 53-42. The teams played out the final 3 minutes on essentially even terms and the Cats secured their 5 th consecutive victory, 62-52.
Kentucky won the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 31-25, but Alabama controlled the offensive boards for the game, 8-6, +2. Kentucky converted its 6 second chance opportunities into 7 second chance points and ALABAMA used its 8 second chance opportunities to post 8 second chance points.
ALABAMA scored its 52 points on 71 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.732 ppp. Kentucky scored its 62 points on 69 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.899 ppp. ALABAMA had an offensive efficiency of 0.698 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 8 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.873 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 1.167 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions.
UK grabbed a weak 26.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds while ALABAMA was able to convert an even weaker 24.2% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK shot very well from the free throw line, 20-26 for the game [76.9%]. ALABAMA shot the ball better than their average from the line today, 10-15 [66.7%]. UK's field goal shooting was good for the game, shooting 19-39 [48.7%] overall, and UK shot poorly from long range, making 4 of 13 attempts [30.8%]. ALABAMA's field goal shooting overall was about 37.3% [19-51], and a poor 4-17 [23.5%] from long range.
Kentucky committed 18 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 3.9 possessions. ALABAMA committed 13 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.5 possessions.
Post Game Analysis:
Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky win, 78-66 [62-52] in a game with 80 and 83 possessions [69-71]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.975 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.899 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.795 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.732 ppp.
This season is now over 2/3 complete, and the SEC season is not ½ complete, and the Cats stand with a record of only 12-9, 6-2 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:
• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. Today, the defensive effort was stronger than anticipated.
• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Today, the offense struggled, primarily due to the high rate of turnovers in the first half.
• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Today, the Cats failed to take care of their possessions, with 18 total turnovers, 12 of which occurred in the first half.
• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. Tonight, the Cats got out rebounded on the offensive glass, but they limited Alabama's second chance opportunities to about 24% of their misses.
Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and a “B-” respectively as shown below:
UK – ALABAMA GRADES
Next Game:
The Cats' next game will be Tuesday night, February 12, 2008 against Vanderbilt in Nashville.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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Cats Continue Their "Against All Odds" Tour With Win At Auburn
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SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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