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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings
25
Cats Look For Fourth Consecutive Win and
Back To Back SEC Road Wins
Pre-Game Analysis:
On Saturday afternoon, the Kentucky Wildcats fought “Against All Odds” and defeated a scrappy Georgia Bulldog team in Athens Georgia to post the first win of this season outside of Rupp Arena, and to win their third straight game for only the second time this season. In that game, Meeks could not play, Bradley went out of the game after only 11 minutes due to a nasty fall, and Crawford could not play the final four minutes, with the game on the line due to severe cramps in both legs. Despite all of this, the Iron Cats found a way to win the game.
Crawford had left the game earlier, but reentered the game after Georgia regained the lead. Crawford's final appearance was just long enough for him to sink a huge three pointers that gave the Cats the lead for good, 56-54 with about 4 ½ minutes left in the game. Shortly thereafter, he retired to the bench, and then the training room for a huge influx of fluids. And the Cats won without Crawford, Without Bradley, and Without Meeks when the chips were all on the table.
Bravo!!!!!
It seems that Crawford should be able to go on Wednesday night against Auburn, but the status of Meeks and Bradley remains uncertain.
Earlier this season, the Cats lost four in a row [UNC, IU, UAB, and Houston], and on Wednesday night the Cats have an opportunity to win four in a row for the first time this season, and to secure yet another critical SEC road victory when they travel to Auburn, Alabama.
Auburn currently stands with an 11-8 against D1 opponents, and 2-5 in the SEC. In addition to the current three game losing streak to Alabama, LSU, and Vanderbilt, the Tigers also lost Arkansas and Florida. Auburn's most impressive win of this season was over Mississippi, at home, by 3 points.
As noted in previous discussions this season, the Cats' play this season has been marked by:
• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.
• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.
• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported, and
• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage.
Through 19 D1 games this season, AUBURN is 11-8, AND 2-5 in SEC play as noted above. AUBURN carries a current RPI ranking of #147 and a RPI SOS of 0..4924 for all D1 games played. After nineteen games, the Cats are 10-9, and 4-2 in the SEC with an RPI ranking of 112 [up 26 spots by virtue of Saturday's win] and a RPI SOS value of 0.5668.
Kentucky averages 79.6 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 81.4 possessions per game. AUBURN currently averages 78.3 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 78.3 possessions per game. AUBURN has been getting 0.0 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -1.8 per game. UK grabs an average 34.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while AUBURN grabs an average 32.8% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 33.0% of their misses as offensive rebounds while AUBURN allows its opponents 29.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds.
With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each .4.9 possessions, and AUBURN averages one turnover for each 5.3 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers at a rate of one for each 5.7 opponent possessions while AUBURN forces one turnover for each 5.4 opponent possessions. AUBURN 's offensive efficiency has been 0.910 ppp and 71.3 points per game. AUBURN 's defensive efficiency has been 0.891 ppp while holding opponents to 69.8 ppg. Their NGE is 0.019 ppp.
Kentucky has posted a slightly weaker offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.904 ppp while scoring about 71.9 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.819 ppp on about 66.6 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.085 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5668 for UK and 0.4924 for AUBURN .
Based on this performance data for AUBURN and UK to date, which includes nineteen regular season games for UK and nineteen regular season D1 games for AUBURN, the Cats are a 6 point favorite, 73-67 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 79 possessions for UK and 80 possessions for AUBURN. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.924 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.838 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.087 ppp.
A game NGE greater than 0.125 ppp will be an impressive performance while a game NGE less than 0.025 ppp will be disappointing. The pre-game magic number is 71 points.
First Half Summary:
Coach Gillispie starts Patterson, Coury, Harris, Jasper, and Crawford. Pre-game information indicates that neither Meeks nor Bradley will be available for tonight's game, as the injury/illness bug continues to bite this team.
Both teams open with good shooting, but a three pointer by Crawford and a Harris free throw were sufficient to give the Cats the early lead, 8-6 at the under 16 TV timeout. However, the Cats committed 3 turnovers in this first segment, and got one offensive rebound to Auburn's no offensive rebounds and one turnover. Out of the timeout, another Kentucky turnover, couple with a block of a Patterson shot permitted Auburn to get a put back basket and take a lead 9-8 prompting a Kentucky timeout with 14:03 to play. After the timeout, the Cats went inside to Patterson on two straight trips and regained the lead, 14-12 at the under 12 TV timeout.
In the third segment of the game, the Cats road back to back three pointers by Porter to a 7 point lead, 20-13, and maintained that lead to the under 8 TV timeout, 22-15. Through about 13 minutes of this game, the pace is about 75 to 80 possessions. Auburn has a +1 advantage on offensive boards, and the Cats have committed 9 turnovers in 11 minutes.
In the fourth segment, Auburn cuts the Cats' lead to 2 points, 25-23, due to continuing rash of turnovers by the Cats, now a total of 11, and a Patterson basket just before the under 4 TV timeout, gave the Cats the 27-23 lead with 3:38 to play in the first half.
The Pace is about 70 possessions for the Cats and 78 possessions for the Tigers. The Tigers closed the gap completely, tieing the Cats at 31-31, and on a buzzer beater three pointer, to send the teams to the locker room tied 34-34.
The first half pace was about 66 possessions for Kentucky and 74 possessions for the AUBURN. The Cats controlled the boards in the first half, 12-10, but the Tigers won the battle of the offensive boards 6-3, giving them an 8-2 advantage on second chance points. Kentucky committed 11 turnovers in the first half, one for every 3.0 possessions. AUBURN committed 6 turnovers, one for each 6.2 possessions.
Kentucky shot the ball very well during the first half, 13-19 [68.4%] overall and an outstanding 4-7 [57.1%] from long range. AUBURN shot the ball well for the half, 12-26 [46.2%] overall, but AUBURN shot the ball poorly from long range, 3-11 [27.3%].
AUBURN scored its 34 points on 37 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.919 ppp. Kentucky scored its 34 points on 33 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.030 ppp.
In the first half, UK was 4.6 from the free throw line [66.7%], and AUBURN was a perfect 7-10 [70.0%] from the free throw line.
Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:
MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 69 Points. The first team to score its 69 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 35 points, while AUBURN needs 35 points. Neither team reached the Magic Number tonight, and the Cats held on to get the road win 66-63.
Second Half Summary:
Kentucky starts the second half with continued strong shooting and NO turnovers in the first 3 ½ minutes, running back out to their longest lead of the game, 7 points, 44-37, forcing an Auburn timeout. Following the timeout, the Cats extended their lead to 9 points, 46-37, but Auburn put on a run of their own to cut the lead back to 2 points, 46-44 before the Cats reasserted themselves to extend the lead back to 6 points, 52-46 at the under 12 TV timeout. The pace continues at under 70 for the game, and the Cats' very hot shooting is the only thing that is offsetting the –5 offensive rebounds, and –5 turnover margin.
In the third segment, the Cats established their largest lead of the game, 10 points at the 10 minute mark, 56-46, and then the teams played the next 2 minutes with only two Auburn free throws being scored on Crawford's fourth foul with 9 minutes to go in the game. At the under 8 TV timeout, the Cats continue to hold an 8 point lead, 56-48.
In the fourth segment, Auburn utilized four more Kentucky turnovers to trim the 8 point lead to 7 points, 62-55 at the under 4 TV timeout. With 3:44 to play, the Cats have committed 21 turnovers to Auburn's 11, and Auburn holds a +4 advantage on the offensive glass, 10-6. Despite continuing turnovers down the stretch, the Cats hang on to get their fourth win in a row, their second consecutive SEC road win, and take sole possession of second place in the SEC East with a record of 5-2, 11-9 overall. Final score, 66-63.
Kentucky won the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 27-20, but Auburn dominated the offensive boards for the game, 11-6, +5. Kentucky converted its 6 second chance opportunities into 6 second chance points and AUBURN used its 11 second chance opportunities to post 12 second chance points.
AUBURN scored its 63 points on 74 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.851 ppp. Kentucky scored its 66 points on 69 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.957 ppp. AUBURN had an offensive efficiency of 0.823 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 1.091 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.952 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions.
UK grabbed an very strong 40.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while AUBURN was able to convert an above average 34.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.
UK shot very poorly from the free throw line, 8-12 for the game [66.7%]. AUBURN shot the ball extremely well from the line today, 18-25 [72.0%]. UK's field goal shooting was outstanding for the game, shooting 26-39 [66.7%] overall, and UK shot exceptionally well from long range, making 6 of 10 attempts [60.0%]. AUBURN's field goal shooting overall was about 40.8% [20-49], and a poor 5-18 [27.8%] from long range.
Kentucky committed a season high 24 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 2.9 possessions. AUBURN committed 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.1 possessions.
Post Game Analysis:
Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky win, 73-67 [66-63] in a game with 79 and 80 possessions [69-73]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.924 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.957 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.838 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.851ppp.
This season is now over 2/3 complete, and the Cats stand with a record of only 11-9, 5-2 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:
• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. Tonight's defense was about as expected, given these teams' respective season long performance.
• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Tonight, the offense about as expected, given these teams' season long performance
• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Today, the Cats nearly squandered a win by committing a season high 24 turnovers, one for each 2.9 possessions.
• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. Tonight, the Cats got out rebounded on the offensive glass, but given their high shooting percentage, the overall rebounding performance was really quite outstanding tonight.
Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a “C” respectively as shown below:
UK – AUBURN GRADES
Next Game:
The Cats' next game will be Saturday afternoon, February 9, 2008 against Alabama at Rupp.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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Cats Fight Back "Against All Odds" To Beat Georgia on the Road
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SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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