07-1 Preseason Forecast

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BASKETBALL

2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

24
Cats Look For First Win Outside Rupp This Season, and
First Three Game Win Streak Since November 27, 2007

Pre-Game Analysis:

Between November 21 and 27, 2007, the Kentucky Wildcats won three straight games, defeating Liberty, Texas Southern and Stony Brook. This three game winning streak is the longest winning streak for this Kentucky team, and on Saturday, the Cats have an opportunity to match that mark by winning for the first time of the season outside of Rupp Arena in Athens, Georgia.

The Cats enter this game on a definite upswing off of back to back home wins over Tennessee and South Carolina. However, Georgia's recent fortunes have been somewhat different, with back to back road losses to the same two teams. Now the Cats and Dawgs meet in their Dawg house to settle this matter.

Georgia currently stands with an 11-7; 2-3 record. In addition to the current back to back losses, the Dawgs also lost to Mississippi State on the Road [Just like the Cats], and defeated Alabama and Arkansas in Athens. In fact, while the Cats have not won outside of Rupp Arena this season, Georgia has not lost in Athens this season, and count wins over Wake Forest and Georgia Tech among their home victims. Georgia will provide stiff opposition for the Cats' goals of extending their tender winning streak and demonstrating an ability to win away from home.

Injuries to key players continues to be a concern for the Cats, and now it appears that Joe Crawford's foot issues will continue to cause pain and discomfort throughout the remainder of this season. However, it does appear that Meeks and Jasper continue their physical recoveries.

As noted in previous discussions this season, the Cats' play this season has been marked by:

• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.

• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.

• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported, and

• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage.

Through 17 D1 games this season, GEORGIA is 10-7, AND 2-3 in SEC play as noted above. GEORGIA carries a current RPI ranking of #116 and a RPI SOS of 0..5246 for all D1games played. After eighteen games, the Cats are 9-9, and 3-2 in the SEC with an RPI ranking of 134 [up 9 spots by virtue of Saturday's win] and a RPI SOS value of 0.5683.

Kentucky averages 80.5 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 81.6 possessions per game. GEORGIA currently averages 83.4 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 81.5 possessions per game. GEORGIA has been getting –1.9 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -1.1 per game. UK grabs an average 35.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA grabs an average 33.6% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 32.6% of their misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA allows its opponents 28.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each .4.8 possessions, and GEORGIA averages one turnover for each 5.3 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers at a rate of one for each 5.6 opponent possessions while GEORGIA forces one turnover for each 5.4 opponent possessions. GEORGIA 's offensive efficiency has been 0.825 ppp and 68.8 points per game. GEORGIA 's defensive efficiency has been 0.798 ppp while holding opponents to 65.0 ppg. Their NGE is 0.028 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a stronger offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.900 ppp while scoring about 72.4 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.822 ppp on about 67.1 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.078 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5683 for UK and 0.5246 for GEORGIA .

Based on this performance data for GEORGIA and UK to date, which includes eighteen regular season games for UK and seventeen regular season D1 games for GEORGIA, the Cats are a 1 point favorite, 69-68 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 81 possessions for UK and 82 possessions for GEORGIA. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.852 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.829 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.023 ppp.

A game NGE greater than 0.075 ppp will be an impressive performance while a game NGE less than –0.025 ppp will be disappointing. The pre-game magic number is 69 points.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie starts Patterson, Coury, Harris, Bradley, and Crawford. The last game, Coach inserted Meeks into the starting lineup for the ailing Crawford, and today Crawford returns to the starting five, and Meeks is again nursing his thigh injury. With Meeks unavailable for this game, Coach will probably settle back into a 7-player rotation, with Jasper and Stevenson giving major minutes from the bench.

The Cats begin the game with poor shooting, which they have offset early with three offensive rebounds and no turnovers. Georgia on the other hand has begun the game by hitting 3 of their first 5 shots, including two from outside the arc, but the Dawgs have no offensive rebounds and two early turnovers. With four lead changes in the first 4 minutes, Georgia took a slim 1 point lead to the bench at the under 16 TV timeout, 8-7. Jasper and Stevenson replaced Harris and Coury at the 16:30 mark. Out of the timeout, the Cats moved back into the lead on back to back baskets, 11-8, but Georgia would not allow the Cats to advance further into the lead and cut the temporary 3 point lead back to 1 point, 14-13 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the early going, the pace is about 85 possessions for each team. The Cats have 4 offensive rebounds for 4 second second chance points, and Georgia has 4 offensive rebounds and 4 second chance points.

In the third segment, Georgia regained the lead temporarily, but the Cats then reasserted themselves to lead by 1 point again at the under 8 TV timeout, 18-17. In this segment, a foul on Bradley from behind on a run out sent Bradley to the bench, and Walk on Krebs, in to shoot Bradley's free throws missed both opportunities. Through 12 minutes, the Cats are shooting 8 for 19 while Georgia is only shooting 7 for 20 after their hot start. The Cats ease out to their biggest lead of the day, 4 points on two occasions, primarily on the strength of a Crawford 3 pointer, and continue to hold that 4 point lead at the under 4 TV timeout, 25-21. Bradley has been taken to the locker room for examination following his bad fall. Porter entered the game during the fourth segment, for his first significant action in 2008.

The teams played even for the final 4 minutes, and the Cats took their fragile 1 point lead to the locker room, 30-29.

The first half pace was about 66 possessions for Kentucky and 70 possessions for the GEORGIA. The Dawgs controlled the boards in the first half, 18-17, but the Dawgs won the battle of the offensive boards 6-5. Kentucky committed 3 turnovers in the first half, one for every 11.0 possessions. GEORGIA committed 4 turnovers, one for each 8.8 possessions.

Kentucky shot the ball poorly during the first half, 12-28 [42.9%] overall and an outstanding 4-8 [50.0%] from long range. GEORGIA shot the ball poorly for the half, 11-29 [ 37.9%] overall, but GEORGIA shot the ball well from long range, 3-7 [42.9%].

GEORGIA scored its 29 points on 35 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.829 ppp. Kentucky scored its 30 points on 33 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.909 ppp.

In the first half, UK was 2-4 from the free throw line [50.5%], and GEORGIA was a perfect 4-4 [100.0%] from the free throw line.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 60 Points. The first team to score its 60 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 30 points, while GEORGIA needs 31 points. Kentucky scored its 60 th point today on dunk by Patterson with 0:57 to play and Kentucky holding a xx point lead, 60-55. The teams played out the final 0:57 of the game and Cats secured their victory over GEORGIA 63-58.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats turned the ball over on their first possession of the second half, but then ran off 10 straight points, including 5 by Crawford to run out to a 40-29 lead with 16:08 to play, prompting a Georgia timeout. Bradley received a concussion and stitches on his chin, and reportedly will not play again today. Out of the timeout, Georgia regained not only their composure, but the momentum, going on an 11-2 run of their own to cut the Cats' 11 point lead back to 2 points, 42-40. During that run, Coach Gillispie called a timeout, but the run continued after the timeout, and the Cats are hanging on to a 2 point lead, 44-42 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the third segment, Georgia moved back into the lead, 48-47, but the Cats scored the next 4 points to regain the lead, 51-48 at the under 8 TV timeout.

Georgia has gotten 11 more shots at the basket today thus far on the strength of a +6 margin on the offensive boards, and a +1 advantage on turnovers. During the fourth segment, the Dawgs regained the lead, 54-53, but a Crawford 3 pointer returned the Cats to the lead, 56-54 at the under 4 TV timeout with 3:32 to play in the game. A backdoor by Harris extends the lead to 4 points, 58-54. Kentucky is playing without Meeks, Bradley and Crawford at the present time. Crawford has missed most of the last 10 minutes, and entered the game long enough to make the 3 pointer to put the Cats back into the lead.

Kentucky failed to get the shot they wanted on their possession, but Georgia turned it over on the next trip down the floor. Then with 57 seconds to play, a Jasper lob to Patterson extended the Cats' lead to 5 points, 60-55. A Georgia miss and a Kentucky rebound led Porter going to the free throw line for the one and one with about 33 seconds to play, with the Cats up 5 points. Porter makes only the first, and a Georgia three pointer cuts the lead back to 3 points. Stevenson then returns to the line and makes them both to extend the lead to 63-58, the final score of the game.

Goergia won the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 40-31, and Georgia dominated the offensive boards for the game, 17-5. Kentucky converted its 7 second chance opportunities into 4 second chance points and GEORGIA used its 17 second chance opportunities to post 14 second chance points.

GEORGIA scored its 58 points on 75 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.773 ppp. Kentucky scored its 63 points on 63 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.000 ppp. GEORGIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.759 ppp on its 58 first chance possessions and 0.824 ppp for its 17 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.017 ppp on its 58 first chance possessions and 0.800 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed an anemic 17.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds while GEORGIA was able to convert a strong 39.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot very poorly from the free throw line, 8-17 for the game [52.9%]. GEORGIA shot the ball extremely well from the line today, 10-12 [83.2%]. UK's field goal shooting was slightly above average for the game, shooting 24-47 [51.1%] overall, and UK shot exceptionally well from long range, making 6 of 12 attempts [50.0%]. GEORGIA's field goal shooting overall was about 34.9% [22-63], and a poor 4-18 [22.2%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 8 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 7.9 possessions. GEORGIA committed 7 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 10.9 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky win, 69-68 [63-58] in a game with 81 and 82 possessions [63-75]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.852 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 1.000 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.827 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.773 ppp.

This season is now 2/3 complete, and the Cats stand with a record of only 9-9, 3-2 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:

• A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. The defense today was very good, holding Georgia ito less than 0.8 points per possession.

• An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Tonight, the offense was outstanding, scoring 1.00 point per possession.

• Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Today, the Cats took better care of the possessions than any other game so far this season.

• Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. Today, the Cats did not get the job done on the boards, losing the offensive rebounding battle 17-5, -12.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B+” and a “B-” respectively as shown below:

UK – GEORGIA GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats' next game will be Wednesday night, February 6, 2008 against Auburn at Auburn.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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Cats Win Back To Back For First Time Since November 27, 2007