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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

23
Cats Look For First Back To Back Wins Since November 27, 2007

Pre-Game Analysis:

The #3 ranked Tennessee Volunteers strutted into Rupp on Tuesday night confident that they would leave Rupp and the Cats in further disarray. However, the Cats had other ideas, and deflated a few oversized Big Orange egos in the process. The Cats demonstrated, perhaps for the first time this season, that any team with designs to come into the House Rupp Built and further embarrass Kentucky in front of the home crowd should really think through their plan a second, and third time.

The Volunteers left with their second loss of the year and the rest of the SEC, indeed the entire college basketball world, looked up and opened their eyes. The Cats are back. In the game, the Cats limited their turnovers to 12 for the game and only 5 in the decisive second half. The Cats won the battle of the offensive rebounding by grabbing 37.5% of their own misses and limiting the Big Orange to only 30.8% of the Vol misses. The Cats shot the ball well from the field while holding Tennessee to under 39% shooting, and the Cats hits nearly 86% of their free throws including 14-14 during the final 3 minutes of the game to secure the upset victory against a consensus top 5 team, and a legitimate contender for the Final Four in 2008.

Given the quality of the opposition, this was undoubtedly the Cats' most complete game of this otherwise disappointing season. These Cats may not be completely back to their elite, nationally dominant position, but the Tennessee victory clearly demonstrates that the path Coach Gillispie has placed the program on since his arrival is the right path for that resurgence to prominence.

Injuries to key players continues to be a concern for the Cats, as Joe Crawford had to leave the Tennessee game over the critical last 10 minutes due to foot issues. While Meeks and Jasper continue their physical recoveries, Coach Gillispie is not sure that Crawford will be available for the next game on Saturday when South Carolina enters Rupp.

As noted in previous discussions this season, the Cats' play this season has been marked by:

1. •  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.
2. •  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.
3. •  Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported, and
4. •  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage.

Through 18 D1 games this season, SOUTH CAROLINA is 9-9, AND 1-3 in SEC play, having defeated Arkansas at Fayetteville, and losing to Vanderbilt in Nashville, and Tennessee and Florida at home.. SOUTH CAROLINA carries a current RPI ranking of #109 and a RPI SOS of 0..5795 for all games played. After seventeen games, the Cats are 8-9, and 2-2 in the SEC with an RPI ranking of 143 [up 40 spots by virtue of Tuesday win] and a RPI SOS value of 0.5687.

Kentucky averages 80.7 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 82.0 possessions per game. SOUTH CAROLINA currently averages 81.8 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 83.4 possessions per game. SOUTH CAROLINA has been getting –1.6 fewer offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -1.3 per game. UK grabs an average 34.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while SOUTH CAROLINA grabs an average 32.5% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 32.3% of their misses as offensive rebounds while SOUTH CAROLINA allows its opponents 36.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each .4.8 possessions, and SOUTH CAROLINA averages one turnover for each 7.2 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 5.5 opponent possessions while SOUTH CAROLINA forces one turnover for each 5.8 opponent possessions. SOUTH CAROLINA 's offensive efficiency has been 0.925 ppp and 75.6 points per game. SOUTH CAROLINA 's defensive efficiency has been 0.838 ppp while holding opponents to 69.9 ppg. Their NGE is 0.166 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a poorer offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.894 ppp while scoring about 72.1 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.817 ppp on about 66.9 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.077 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5687 for UK and 0.5795 for SOUTH CAROLINA .

Based on this performance data for SOUTH CAROLINA and UK to date, which includes seventeen regular season games for UK and eighteen regular season games for SOUTH CAROLINA, the Cats are a 4 point favorite, 73-69 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 82 possessions for UK and 82 possessions for SOUTH CAROLINA. This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.890 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.841 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.049 ppp.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie starts Patterson, Coury, Harris, Bradley, and Meeks. While Coach had settled into a starting lineup since the beginning of conference play, today's lineup changed due to Crawford's foot injury. With Crawford unavailable for this game, Coach will probably settle back into a 7 player rotation, with Jasper and Stevenson giving major minutes from the bench.

The Cats controlled the opening tip, and ran a set play to Patterson was streaked directly to the basket for a quick lead, and following a missed 3 point attempt, Patterson got a put back, prompting a quick USC timeout, down 4-0 early. After the timeout, South Carolina settled down and out scored the Cats 7-6 to the under 16 TV timeout, with the Cats continuing to lead the game, 10-7. The Cats early shooting has been outstanding, but USC has gotten 9 shots to the Cats' 5 shots due to a 2-1 advantage on the offensive glass and three Kentucky turnovers in the first 4 minutes of the game.

The second segment of this game was again characterized by very strong UK shooting offset by USC offensive rebounding and Cat turnovers as USC cut the lead to 1 point on two occasions including 15-14 at the under 12 TV timeout. The early pace is about 75 to 85 possessions for the game, and USC has had 7 more shots at the basket than the Cats. The Cats are 6-9 and USC is 6-16. USC has 8 points off turnovers and 6 points on second chance opportunities accounting for every USC point thus far scored in the game. In the protracted third segment, the Cats ran off 8 straight points to extend their lead to 9 points, 23-14, but USC responded to this charge with 8 points of its own to cut the lead to 4 points, 26-22 at the under 8 TV timeout with 5:54 to play in the first half. The Cats continue to turn over the possession, with three more in this segment, and 8 for the game as compared to only 1 turnover by USC. Of USC's 22 points, 11 are off turnovers, and 8 are second chance points.

In the abbreviated fourth segment, the teams played on relatively even terms, and the Cats continue to cling to a 3 point lead, 31-28 with 3:38 to play at the under 4 TV timeout. The Cats have committed 9 turnovers, one for each 3.3 possessions, and but for 5-7 shooting from long range, this team would be in trouble at this point in the game. USC now has 14 points off those turnovers and 8 second chance points, all but 6 of their 28 points for the game. USC only has 2 turnovers, and USC still leads the offensive rebounding battle, 6-5. The Cats outscored USC 8-6 down the stretch of the first half to take a 5 point lead to the locker room, 39-34.

The first half pace was about 76 possessions for Kentucky and 76 possessions for the SOUTH CAROLINA. The Cats controlled the boards in the first half, 20-12, but the USC won the battle of the offensive boards 8-7. Kentucky committed 11 turnovers in the first half, one for every 3.5 possessions. SOUTH CAROLINA committed 2 turnovers, one for each 19.0 possessions.

Kentucky shot the ball very well during the first half, 13-22 [59.1%] overall and an outstanding 5-8 [62.5%] from long range. SOUTH CAROLINA shot the ball poorly for the half, 14-36 [ 38.9%] overall, but SOUTH CAROLINA shot the ball well from long range, 6-16 [37.5%].

SOUTH CAROLINA scored its 34 points on 38 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.895 ppp. Kentucky scored its 39 points on 38 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.026 ppp.

In the first half, UK was 8-12 from the free throw line [66.7%], and SOUTH CAROLINA was did not make a single attempt from the free throw line.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 72 Points. The first team to score its 72 nd point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 33 points, while SOUTH CAROLINA needs 38 points. Kentucky scored its 72 nd point today on three pointer by Bradley with 0:40 to play and Kentucky holding a 8 point lead, 72-64. The teams played out the final 0:40 of the game and Cats secured their victory over SOUTH CAROLINA 73-69.

Second Half Summary:

South Carolina starts the second half 4 out of 5 three pointers while the Cats miss all five of their early shots. This allowed USC to not only take their first lead of the game but extend that lead to 7 points, 46-39 at 16:01 to play in the game, forcing Kentucky to take a timeout 1 second ahead of the under 16 TV timeout. On the first possession down the floor following the Kentucky timeout, a foul on USC prompted the under 16 TV timeout with the score still 46-39 in USC's favor. In the second segment, the Cats increased their defensive intensity and make a run of their own to climb back to a tie at 51-51. A USC basket just before the under 12 TV timeout provides USC a 2 point lead, 53-51 at the TV timeout with 11:37 to play in the game.

In the third segment of the second half, the Cats outscored USC 6-5 to cut the lead to 1 point, 58-57. The Cats managed to stay in the game during this segment on the strength of offensive rebounding [6] and second chance points [6]. With 7:45 to play in this game, this game figures to go to the last possession. In the fourth segment, the Cats regained the lead on a Jasper three, and lead by 1 point, 65-64 at the under 4 TV timeout with 3:25 to play in the game. In the final segment, the Cats extended their lead to 8 points, 72-64 on a Bradley 3 pointer with about 40 seconds to play. Then the Cats sealed the deal 78-70.

Kentucky won the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 37-28, and Kentucky fought back in the second half on the offensive boards to push with USC in that category for the game, 14-14. Kentucky converted its 14 second chance opportunities into 15 second chance points and SOUTH CAROLINA used its 14 second chance opportunities to post 15 second chance points.

SOUTH CAROLINA scored its 70 points on 75 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.933 ppp. Kentucky scored its 78 points on 76 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.026 ppp. SOUTH CAROLINA had an offensive efficiency of 0.902 ppp on its 61 first chance possessions and 1.071 ppp for its 14 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.000 ppp on its 63 first chance possessions and 1.071 ppp on its 14 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a very strong 50.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while SOUTH CAROLINA was able to convert a strong 37.8% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot very well from the free throw line, 18-23 for the game [78.3%], including 10-11 in the second half and 4-4 down the stretch while securing the victory. SOUTH CAROLINA only got to the free throw line for three attempts today, making 2 [66.7%]. UK's field goal shooting was slightly above average for the game, shooting 26-51 [51.0%] overall, and UK shot exceptionally well from long range, making 8 of 13 attempts [61.5%]. SOUTH CAROLINA's field goal shooting overall was about 43.1% [28-65], and a strong 12-30 [40.0%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 15 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.1 possessions. SOUTH CAROLINA committed 9 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 8.3 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky win, 73-69 [78-70] in a game with 82 and 82 possessions [76-75]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.890 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 1.026 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.841 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.933 ppp.

This season is now 2/3 complete, and the Cats stand with a record of only 9-9, 3-2 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. The defense tonight was not in a desirable range as the Cats allowed USC to score over 0.93 points per possession.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Tonight, the offense was outstanding.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Tonight, the Cats took good care of the ball and only committed 15 turnovers for the game; however, they committed 11 of them in the first half.

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. Tonight the Cats battled on even terms for the numerical battle of the offensive boards 14-14, but they really out performed USC on the offensive boards because they limited the USC to about 37% of their misses while grabbing 50% of their own misses.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B+” and a “D+” respectively as shown below:

UK – SOUTH CAROLINA GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats' next game will be Saturday afternoon, February 2, 2008 against Georgia in Athens, Georgia.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Twenty Four

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Cats Upset #3 Tennessee At Rupp

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