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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

22
Cats Limp Home to Take On Top Ranked Tennessee

Pre-Game Analysis:

In 2006 and 2007, the Florida Gators distinguished themselves as a special team on the court by posting huge NGE values each year. This season, the Tennessee Volunteers have led the way among the SEC teams and through their first 16 games, they have posted a 15-1 record while playing the third most difficult schedule among NCAA D1 teams thus far this season.

On Tuesday night, the Cats limp back home to face these Volunteers. This game at Rupp follows a two game road trip that produced no wins. However, the Cats extended SEC West leading Mississippi State to the final possession of the game before falling, and fought well enough to take the defending NCAA champion Florida Gators into overtime, before running out of players and losing by 11 points. ESPN will be on hand, and the nation will be watching again.

While the Cats are coming off the two road losses, and are in the midst of an 11 game stretch that has only produced three wins, the Volunteers are riding an 11 game winning streak after their only defeat of the season, a 19 point clubbing by Texas on a neutral site.

Injuries to key players continues to be a concern for the Cats, but Meeks and Jasper did play against the Gators on Saturday, and there have been no reports since that game to suggest that either of them are unavailable for the Tennessee game.

The Cats' play this season has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported, and

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage.

Through 16 D1 games this season, TENNESSEE is 15-1, AND 3-0 in SEC play, having defeated Mississippi and Vanderbilt at home and South Carolina on the road.. TENNESSEE carries a current RPI ranking of #1 and a RPI SOS of 0.6189 for all games played. After sixteen games, the Cats are 7-9, and 1-2 in the SEC with an RPI ranking of 183 and a RPI SOS value of 0.5494.

Kentucky averages 81.3 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 82.3 possessions per game. TENNESSEE currently averages 89.3 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 88.2 possessions per game. TENNESSEE has been getting 1.1 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -1.0 per game. UK grabs an average 34.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE grabs an average 36.5% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 32.4% of their misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE allows its opponents 37.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each .4.7 possessions, and TENNESSEE averages one turnover for each 7.2 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 5.3 opponent possessions while TENNESSEE forces one turnover for each 4.2 opponent possessions. TENNESSEE 's offensive efficiency has been 0.959 ppp and 85.6 points per game. TENNESSEE 's defensive efficiency has been 0.774 ppp while holding opponents to 68.2 ppg. Their NGE is 0.185 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a poorer offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.887 ppp while scoring about 72.1 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.814 ppp on about 67.0 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.073 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5494 for UK and 0.6189 for TENNESSEE .

Based on this performance data for TENNESSEE and UK to date, which includes sixteen regular season games for UK and sixteen regular season games for TENNESSEE, the Cats are a 10 point underdog, 78-68 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 85 possessions for UK and 86 possessions for TENNESSEE . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.800 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.907 ppp, for a game NGE of –0.114 ppp.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie starts Patterson, Coury, Harris, Bradley, and Crawford, the same 5 that started the last three games since the beginning of SEC play. Still no start for Meeks or Jasper, but they along with Stevenson should be the three other Cats to get significant minutes again tonight.

Tennessee begins by hitting 2 of their first 3 three point attempts, while the Cats start only 1-3 and foll behind 6-2. At the 17 minute mark, Coach Gillispie makes his first substitutions, bringing in Jasper and Stevenson. Stevenson immediately contributes with a put back basket to cut the lead to 6-4 at the under 16 TV timeout. The early pace favors the Cats, and the Cats have 2 offensive rebounds to Tennessee's zero in the early going. However, UT holds the advantage on turnovers at this point, 0-1.

In the second segment, the Vols extended their lead to 5 points, 9-4, but the Cats ran the next 6 points to take their first lead of the game, 10-9. However, Tennessee scored the next 4 points to regain the lead, 13-10 at the under 12 TV timeout. The pace continues to favor the Cats, and the Cats hold a 3-1 advantage on the offensive boards producing a 6-0 advantage in second chance points. However, the Cats have committed 3 turnovers to the Vols 1. Out of the timeout, Tennessee makes a free throw, and then a basket following two misses and two offensive rebounds to extend the lead to 6 points, their largest of the night prompting a timeout by the Cats with about 10 minutes to play in the first half. The Cats have now committed 4 turnovers in the first 10 minutes, which is too many.

Out of the timeout the teams exchanged baskets for the next two minutes, but the Cats also committed two more turnovers, for a total of 6 at the under 8 TV timeout, and the Cats trailing by 6 points, 22-16. In addition, the Vols have begun to work the offensive glass, taking a 4-3 lead on offensive rebounds, and cutting the second chance point margin to 6-4. The pace also quickened in the last segment, more to the Vols' liking. The game still is on a pace of under 80 possessions however, which continues to favor the Cats' needs for this game.

In the fourth segment of the first half, the Cats mounted a come back after Tennessee reestablished their 6 point lead, 24-18, and the Cats scored 5 straight on a Crawford three and another Stevenson basket, giving him 8 points for the game at the under 4 TV timeout. Tennessee committed two turnovers during the segment, aiding the Cat cause. However, out of the timeout, a basket inside and a Lofton three reestablished that 6 point lead, 29-23, prompting another Kentucky timeout with 3:10 to play in the first half. Out of the timeout, a steal by the Vols and an intentional foul by Jasper at the other end led to Tennessee's biggest lead, 10 points, 33-23. However, the Cats clawed their way back into the game and cut the lead to 3 points, 33-30, but a Lofton 3 with 1 second to play established the halftime score, 36-30.

The first half pace was about 68 possessions for Kentucky and 78 possessions for the TENNESSEE. The Cats controlled the boards in the first half, 17-15, but the Volunteers won the battle of the offensive boards 6-3. Kentucky committed 7 turnovers in the first half, one for every 4.7 possessions. TENNESSEE committed 4 turnovers, one for each 9.8 possessions.

Kentucky shot the ball well during the first half, 10-21 [47.8%] overall and a poor 2-7 [28.6%] from long range. TENNESSEE shot the ball poorly for the half, 13-32 [ 40.6%] overall, and TENNESSEE shot the ball fair from long range, 4-12 [33.3%].

TENNESSEE scored its 36 points on 39 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.923 ppp. Kentucky scored its 30 points on 34 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.882 ppp.

In the first half, UK was 8-11 from the free throw line [72.7%], and TENNESSEE was 6-7 [85.7%] from the free throw line.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 70 Points. The first team to score its 70 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 40 points, while TENNESSEE needs 34 points. Kentucky scored its 70 th point today on free throw by Bradley with 0:10 to play and Kentucky holding a 7 point lead, 70-63. The teams played out the final 0:10 of the game and Cats secured their victory over the #3 Volunteers 72-66.

Second Half Summary:

Tennessee opened the second half with a quick basket inside the lane, and after Harris hits only one of two free throw attempts, a three pointer by Tennessee reestablished the 10 point lead, 43-33. However, the Cats took care of the ball and some strong shooting cut the lead back to only 4 points 43-39 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, the Cats started to commit turnovers in bunches again, committing 4 turnovers on their next 6 possessions. Tennessee used this poor ball handling to extend the lead back to 8 points, and the Cats could only cut the lead back to 6 points by the next break in the action, with the Vols leading 50-44 with 12:35 to play in the game.

In the third segment, the Cats rode some very hot shooting, including back to back threes by Crawford to forge into the lead, 54-52 at the under 8 TV timeout. After 8 segments, the pace remains under 70 possessions for the Cats and about 72 possessions for the Vols. In the second half, the Cats have hit 9 of 14 shots and committed 5 turnovers. Tennessee has hit 6 of their 13 shots. In the fourth segment, Tennessee regained the lead, by 2 points, 56-54, but a Patterson put back tied the score at 56-56 and a foul before the under 4 TV timeout will put Bradley on the line for 2 free throws out of the timeout with 3:17 to play in the game. The Cats took the lead on a Meeks jumper in the lane, and never gave up the lead, as the Cats, primarily Bradley, hit 14-14 free throws down the stretch to secure the victory over #3 Tennessee 72-66.

Kentucky won the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 36-27, but Kentucky lost the battle for the offensive boards, 9-12. Kentucky converted its 9 second chance opportunities into 9 second chance points and TENNESSEE used its 12 second chance opportunities to post 14 second chance points.

TENNESSEE scored its 66 points on 76 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.868 ppp. Kentucky scored its 72 points on 71 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.014 ppp. TENNESSEE had an offensive efficiency of 0.813 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 1.167 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.016 ppp on its 62 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a strong 37.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE was able to convert only 30.8% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot very well from the free throw line, 24-28 for the game [85.7%], including 14-14 down the stretch while securing the victory. TENNESSEE shot well too making 15 of their 21 attempts [71.4%]. UK's field goal shooting was slightly above average for the game, shooting 22-45 [48.9%] overall, and UK shot poorly from long range, making 4 of 15 attempts [26.7%]. TENNESSEE's field goal shooting overall was about 38.6% [22-57], and a poor 7-27 [26.9%] from long range.

Kentucky committed only 12 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.9 possessions. TENNESSEE committed 9 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 8.4 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky loss, 68-78 [72-66] in a game with 85 and 86 possessions [72-76]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.800 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 1.014 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.907 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.868 ppp.

This season is now about ½ complete, and the Cats stand with a record of only 8-9, and 2-2 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. The defense tonight was very good, especially given Tennessee's offensive record.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Tonight, the offense was outstanding.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Tonight, the Cats took good care of the ball and only committed 12 turnovers for the game.

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. Tonight the Cats lost the numerical battle of the offensive boards 9-12, but they really out performed the Vols on the offensive boards because they limited the Vols to about 30% of their misses while grabbing 37.5% of their own misses.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “A” and a “B-” respectively as shown below:

UK – TENNESSEE GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats' next game will be Saturday afternoont, January 26, 2008 against South Carolina at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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Cats Fall To Gators in OT in Gainesville

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