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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

21
Cats Complete Two Game Road Swing at Florida

Pre-Game Analysis:

In 2005, the Florida Gators turned the tables on the Kentucky Wildcats and have now won six straight meetings between the two teams. While Kentucky holds a commanding 84-30 overall record against the Gators, this six game losing streak is sufficient to send folks to the record books to find out whether anyone has ever beaten Kentucky 6 or more times in a row.

Well here is the answer:

•  Georgetown College 6 1903-1906

•  Centre College 6 1918-1921

•  Indiana 6 1925-1943

•  Notre Dame 7, 1929-1942

•  UNC 6 1976-1995

•  Florida 6 2005-2007

Since 1942, only two teams have accomplished six straight wins over Kentucky, UNC and now Florida. Notre Dame holds the record with 7 straight wins, between 1929 and 1942, and Indiana accomplished 6 straight between 1925 and 1943.

On Saturday, Florida will attempt to be the only team in the modern era to beat the Cats seven straight, and the Cats will have the monumental task of preventing that from happening, on the road, at the McConnell Center where the Crazy Reptiles will be prepared, and laying in wait for the Cats.

While this group of Gators are not the same caliber of teams that established the standing 6 game streak and in the process won back to back NCAA championships, make no mistake that this young group of Gators are still a dangerous opponent, and the Cats will have to play at the very top of their game to end this embarrassing streak.

Both teams are coming off disappointing SEC road losses, the Cats at MISSISSIPPI STATE and the Gators at Mississippi. But, the venue for this match up is Gainesville, in close vicinity to the swamp.

The Cats continue to be the walking wounded, as Meeks did not play in the last two games, and Jasper left the Vanderbilt game with yet another knee injury and missed the MSU game on Tuesday night. Their status for this game at Florida remains uncertain.

The Cats' play this season has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported, and

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage.

Through 18 D1 games this season, FLORIDA is 15-3, AND 2-1 in SEC play, having defeated Aubern at home and Alabama on the road.. FLORIDA carries a current RPI ranking of #71 and a RPI SOS of 0.4827 for all games played. After fifteen games, the Cats are 7-8, and 1-1 in the SEC with an RPI ranking of 179 and a RPI SOS value of 0.5461.

Kentucky averages 81.2 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 82.2 possessions per game. FLORIDA currently averages 81.1 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 78.6 possessions per game. FLORIDA has been getting 2.5 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -1.0 per game. UK grabs an average 33.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA grabs an average 37.8% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 32.1% of their misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA allows its opponents 30.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each .4.7 possessions, and FLORIDA averages one turnover for each 6.4 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 5.3 opponent possessions while FLORIDA forces one turnover for each 5.5 opponent possessions. FLORIDA 's offensive efficiency has been 1.003 ppp and 81.3 points per game. FLORIDA 's defensive efficiency has been 0.803 ppp while holding opponents to 63.1 ppg. Their NGE is 0.200 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a poorer offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.890 ppp while scoring about 72.3 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.804 ppp on about 66.1 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.087 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5461 for UK and 0.4827 for FLORIDA .

Based on this performance data for FLORIDA and UK to date, which includes fifteen regular season games for UK and eighteen regular season games for FLORIDA, the Cats are a 11 point underdog, 76-65 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 80 possessions for UK and 82 possessions for FLORIDA . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.813 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.927 ppp, for a game NGE of –0.114 ppp.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie starts Coury, Harris, Patterson, Bradley, and Crawford, the same 5 that started the last two games against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State during the past week. Pre-game reports indicate that Jasper and Meeks are available for this game, but it remains unclear as to the extent of their availability.

The game starts with a very fast pace, and Florida takes an early 6-0 lead. The Cats claw back to 6-4 at the under 16 TV timeout, but the turnovers and offensive rebounding problems that have haunted this team all season long have both reared their ugly heads. Out of the timeout, Stevenson entered the game and scored 4 quick points to give the Cats the lead, 8-6, and then 10-6, but the Gators fought back to regain the lead, 13-12 at the under 12 TV timeout. During the third game segment, the Cats committed 3 more turnovers, and failed to score a single point. Fortunately, the Gators only managed three points of their own, and the lead remained manageable, 16-12 at the under 8 TV timeout. Through 12 minutes of play, the Cats have committed 8 turnovers to Florida's 4, and the offensive rebounding battle is now even, 4-4.

In the third segment, Jasper entered the game, and Meeks entered the game during the fourth segment. The Cats took their first lead of the night 19-16 on a Crawford three pointer, and continued to lead, 19-18 at the under 4 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, the Gators continued their run, streaking to a 26-19 lead forcing Kentucky to take a timeout. The teams played out the final 2 minutes of the half on even terms, and the Gators took a 5 point lead, 30-25 into the locker room.

The first half pace was about 72 possessions for Kentucky and 72 possessions for the FLORIDA. The Cats controlled the boards in the first half, 17-13, and a slim advantage on the offensive boards, 7-6. Kentucky committed 10 turnovers in the first half, one for every 3.6 possessions. FLORIDA committed 8 turnovers, one for each 4.5 possessions.

Kentucky shot the ball poorly during the first half, 9-23 [39.1%] overall and a poor 1.5 [20.0%] from long range. FLORIDA shot the ball well for the half, 12-25 [ 48.0%] overall, and FLORIDA shot the ball well from long range, 2-5 [40.0%].

FLORIDA scored its 30 points on 36 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.833 ppp. Kentucky scored its 25 points on 36 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.694 ppp.

In the first half, UK was perfect from the free throw line, 6-6 [100.0%], and FLORIDA was 4-7 [57.1%] from the free throw line.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 58 Points. The first team to score its 58 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 33 points, while FLORIDA needs 28 points. FLORIDA scored its 58 th point today on free throws by Lucas with 2:07 to play and FLORIDA holding a 5 point lead, 58-53. The teams played out the final 2:07 of the game and the Cats tied the score to send the game into overtime. However, in overtime, the Gators secured their victory over the Cats 81-70.

Second Half Summary:

The Gators open the second half with another streak to extend their 5 point halftime lead into double figures, 38-27, and a Meeks three pointer cut that lead to 8 points, 38-30 at the under 16 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, the Gators continued their surge, extending their lead to 12 points, 42-30. However, 5 straight Kentucky points prompts a Florida timeout at 13:01 to play and the Gators lead cut to 7 points, 42-35. Out of the timeout, the Cats scored the next four points to cut the 12 point lead to 3 points at the under 12 TV timeout, 42-39.

In the third segment of the second half, the Cats pulled, but the Gators reclaimed their lead, 49-46 at the under 8 TV timeout. During the last three minutes, the Cats committed 4 more turnovers, allowing the Gators to regain the advantage. In the fourth segment, the Gators extended their lead from 3 points to 5 points, 54-49. Bradley makes a three pointer with 2 seconds to play in the game to tie the score and send the game into overtime. However, the Gators won the overtime as the Cats lost 4 of its players to fouls, and fall 81-70.

Kentucky won the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 37-35, and Kentucky won the battle for the offensive boards, 15-13. Kentucky converted its 15 second chance opportunities into 11 second chance points and FLORIDA used its 14 second chance opportunities to post 7 second chance points.

FLORIDA scored its 81 points on 82 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.988 ppp. Kentucky scored its 70 points on 83 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.843 ppp. FLORIDA had an offensive efficiency of 1.042 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 0.538 ppp for its 14 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.868 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 0.733 ppp on its 15 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a strong 40.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FLORIDA was able to convert a strong 37.1% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot very well from the free throw line, 16-18 for the game [88.9%]. FLORIDA shot well, and often, making 28 of their 40 attempts [70.0%], and 12-12 in the overtime. UK's field goal shooting was below average for the game, shooting 24-59 [40.7%] overall, and UK shot poorly from long range, making 6 of 23 attempts [26.1%]. FLORIDA's field goal shooting overall was about 48.0% [24-50], and a strong 5-10 [50.0%] from long range.

Kentucky committed only 15 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.5 possessions. FLORIDA committed 14 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.0 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky loss, 76-66 [81-70] in a game with 80 and 82 possessions [82-83]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.825 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.843 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.927 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.988 ppp.

This season is now about ½ complete, and the Cats stand with a record of only 7-8, 1-1 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes. The defense was generally better than anticipated for the vast majority of this game, but in overtime the defense gave up 20 points on just 10 possessions, primarily from the free throw line [12-12].

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Tonight, the offense performed about as anticipated overall.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in the highest turnover rate for any Kentucky team since turnover stats have been reported. Tonight, the Cats committed 10 turnovers in the first half, but only 5 in the second half and overtime period.

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 32% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, negating an apparent low opponent shooting percentage. The Cats battled on the boards and won both total rebounds and offensive rebounds.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “C” and a “D+” respectively as shown below:

UK – FLORIDA GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats' next game will be Tuesday night, January 22, 2008 against SEC leader Tennessee at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Twenty Two

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Cats Fall on the SEC Road to Mississippi State

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