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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

20
Cats Take their 1-0 SEC record on the Road to Mississippi State

Pre-Game Analysis:

The Cats went to war on Saturday on the boards, dominating the offensive glass by fighting and getting an astounding 47% of its own misses and limiting VANDERBILT to only 12% of its misses for second chance possessions. That work produced an 18-2 margin in the Cats' favor in second chance points. Even with this hard fought advantage, the Cats' needed two overtime periods to put away the previously undefeated Commodores. Nonetheless, a win is a win, and the Cats' have started their SEC season with a win this year, and defeated VANDERBILT at Rupp Arena for the first time since 2005, ending a 4 game losing streak to VANDERBILT.

The Cats continue to be the walking wounded, as Meeks did not play Saturday, and Jasper left the game with yet another knee injury. Their status for Tuesday night's game at Mississippi State remains uncertain.

The Cats' play this season has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in a turnover on nearly 22% of its total possessions, and

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 34% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds.

Through 16 D1 games this season, MISSISSIPPI STATE is 11-5, AND 2-0 in SEC play, having defeated LSU on the road and Georgia in Starkville. MSU carries a current RPI ranking of #96 and a RPI SOS of 0.5473 for all games played. After fourteen games, the Cats are 7-7, and 1-0 in the SEC with an RPI ranking of 177 and a RPI SOS value of 0.5432.

Kentucky averages 81.5 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 82.3 possessions per game. MISSISSIPPI STATE currently averages 84.5 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 84.3 possessions per game. MISSISSIPPI STATE has been getting 0.2 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -0.8 per game. UK grabs an average 34.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MISSISSIPPI STATE grabs an average 37.1% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 31.6% of their misses as offensive rebounds while MISSISSIPPI STATE allows its opponents 31.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each .4.6 possessions, and MISSISSIPPI STATE averages one turnover for each 5.2 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 5.3 opponent possessions while MISSISSIPPI STATE forces one turnover for each 5.8 opponent possessions. MISSISSIPPI STATE 's offensive efficiency has been 0.867 ppp and 73.3 points per game. MISSISSIPPI STATE 's defensive efficiency has been 0.724 ppp while holding opponents to 61.1 ppg. Their NGE is 0.143 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a better offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.894 ppp while scoring about 72.9 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.800 ppp on about 65.9 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.094 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5432 for UK and 0.5473 for MISSISSIPPI STATE .

Based on this performance data for MISSISSIPPI STATE and UK to date, which includes fourteen regular season games for UK and sixteen regular season games for MISSISSIPPI STATE, the Cats are a 9 point underdog, 73-64 based on the NGE Model. The model projects about 83 possessions for UK and 83 possessions for MISSISSIPPI STATE . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.771 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.880 ppp, for a game NGE of –0.108 ppp.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie starts Coury, Bradley, Patterson, Harris, and Crawford, same 5 that started the Vanderbilt game on Saturday. Pre-game reports indicate that Jasper and Meeks are not available for this game due to illness [Jasper] and injury [Meeks].

The game begins with Kentucky hitting 5 of their first 7 shots while only committing one turnover. However, the 71% shooting and good ball handling was only sufficient to build a 2 point lead, 12-10, at the under 16 TV timeout. While the Cats have scored 1.5 points per possession, they have allowed MSU to counter with 1.00 ppp. In the second segment, the Cats' shots stopped falling and the Cats committed 2 turnovers, but Mississippi State score 5 points to convert an early 5-0 deficit into a 15-12 lead at the under 12 TV timeout.

After the timeout, the Cats cut the lead to 1 points, 15-14, but MSU then got a 7-2 prompting a Kentucky timeout with the Cats down by 6, 22-16. After the Kentucky timeout, they cut the lead to 4, but another Kentucky turnover eliminated an opportunity to cut the lead further before the under 8 TV timeout, MSU leading 22-18. In the first three segments, the pace is very slow, about 70 possessions for the Cats but about 83 possession pace for MSU on the strength of MSU's 6-2 offensive rebounding edge. Cats trail on turnovers, 5-2. Therefore, MSU has enjoyed 7 additional scoring opportunities to forge their 4 point lead.

The 4 th game segment was marked by poor shooting and turnovers by both teams, and the teams simply traded a single basket, sustaining the 4 point MSU lead, 24-20 at the under 4 TV timeout. The Cats have committed 7 turnovers in 16 minutes of play, one TO for each 3.9 possessions. On the other hand, MSU has committed 5 Tos, one for each 6.4 possessions. The Cats are shooting slightly below their season average, 45% and MSU is only shooting 40%. The Cats have not shot a single free throw, and MSU has only been whistled for one personal foul in the entire half.

Out of the TV timeout, MSU hit back to back three pointers while the Cats missed two shots and committed their 7 th turnover, prompting another Kentucky timeout at 2:19 to play and MSU leading by 10 points, 30-20. The timeout had the desired affect, as the Cats outscored MSU over the last 2 minutes 7-2 to cut the 10 point lead in half at the half, 32-27.

The first half pace was about 70 possessions for Kentucky and 74 possessions for the MISSISSIPPI STATE. MSU controlled the boards in the first half, 18-17, and a commanding 7-5 advantage on the offensive boards that generated the difference in this game by virtue of MSU's 9-2 advantage in second chance points Kentucky committed 7 turnovers in the first half, one for every 4.9 possessions. MISSISSIPPI STATE committed 5 turnovers, one for each 7.6 possessions.

Kentucky shot the ball slightly poorer than average during the first half, 12-28 [42.9%] overall and fair 3-9 [33.3%] from long range. MISSISSIPPI STATE shot the ball poorly for the half, 13-30 [ 43.3%] overall, and MISSISSIPPI STATE shot the ball poorly from long range, 5-15 [33.3%].

MISSISSIPPI STATE scored its 32 points on 37possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.865 ppp. Kentucky scored its 27 points on 35 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.771 ppp.

In the first half, UK did not go to the free throw line a single time, and MISSISSIPPI STATE was 1-4 [25.0%] from the free throw line.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 62 Points. The first team to score its 62 nd point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 35 points, while MISSISSIPPI STATE needs 30 points. MSU scored its 62 nd point today on free throw by Varnado with 1:02 to play and MSU holding a zz point lead, 62-57. The teams played out the final 1:02 of the game and the Cats fell again, 69-64.

Second Half Summary:

Whatever momentum the Cats thought they had established at the end of the first half was clearly imaginary, as MSU comes out for the second half and immediately established itself, outscoring the Cats 9-4 in the opening segment. This segment ended with a technical foul on Coach Gillispie as he protested a no call against Joe Crawford under the Kentucky basket, and MSU leading by 10 points, 41-31.

In the second segment, MSU extended its lead to 12 points, but the Cats closed to within 8 points, 46-38 at the under 12 TV timeout. With 11:37 to play in the game, the game is going about as anticipated except the pace is about 10 to 15 possessions slower than the teams' season averages might have suggested for this game. The Cats still trail on the offensive boards, 10-7, and turnovers, 8-7.

In the extended third segment of the second half, the Cats fought back on the strength of Joe Crawford baskets, cutting the lead back to the halftime deficit, 5 points, 54-49 with 6:45 to play in the game. The Cats continue to claw their way back into this game, and at the under 4 TV timeout, the lead has been reduced to 3 points, 56-53, and the Cats drew blanks on at least 3 opportunities to cut the lead to 1 point or draw even with a 3 pointer.

With 3:08 to play, MSU is 6 points shy of the Magic Number, and the Cats need 9 points to get their. The Cats come back attempt falls short, and the final score is 69-64.

MSU won the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 40-33, and MSU won the battle for the offensive boards, 14-11. Kentucky converted its 11 second chance opportunities into 6 second chance points and MISSISSIPPI STATE used its 14 second chance opportunities to post 11 second chance points.

MISSISSIPPI STATE scored its 69 points on 80 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.863 ppp. Kentucky scored its 64 points on 76 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.842 ppp. MISSISSIPPI STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.879 ppp on its 66 first chance possessions and 0.786 ppp for its 14 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.892 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 0.545 ppp on its 11 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a weak 29.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MISSISSIPPI STATE was able to convert a strong 38.9% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot very well from the free throw line, 11-12 for the game [917%]. MISSISSIPPI STATE shot poorly, but often, making 17 of their 33 attempts [51.5%]. UK's field goal shooting was below average for the game, shooting 23-60 [38.3%] overall, and UK shot about average from long range, making 7 of 20 attempts [35.0%]. MISSISSIPPI STATE's field goal shooting overall was about 43.1% [22-51], and a strong 8-22 [36.4%] from long range.

Kentucky committed only 10 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 7.6 possessions. MISSISSIPPI STATE committed 13 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.1 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky loss, 72-65 [69-64] in a game with 85 and 85 possessions [76-80]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.783 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.842 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.867 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.863 ppp.

This season is now about ½ complete, and the Cats stand with a record of only 7-8, 1-1 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been sound, albeit inconsistent. Today's was consistent with the average performance thus far through this season.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Tonight, the offense performed slightly better than their average for this season, but poor shooting, and too few free throw opportunities contributed to the unhappy final outcome.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in a turnover on about 22% of its total possessions. Tonight, the Cats protected their possessions much better than they have in any game this season, only committing 10 turnovers for the game.

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 33% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds. Today, the Cats got beat on the boards from start to finish.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a “C” respectively as shown below:

UK – MISSISSIPPI STATE GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats' next game will be Saturday afternoon against the Florida Gators in Gainesville.

The Cats play next on Tuesday night at Mississippi State in their first road SEC game of the season.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Twenty One

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Cats Beat Previously Unbeaten Vanderbilt in Double Overtime at Rupp

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