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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

19
Cats Limp Into SEC Play; Open Against Undefeated Vanderbilt at Rupp

Pre-Game Analysis:

The non-conference season is over, in the books, and now of record. I doubt that anyone could have envisioned in October that the Cats would enter SEC play with a losing record, having sustained home losses to Gardner Webb and San Diego, at least no one I know predicted such outrageous outcomes. Now, the Cats enter what has historically been the most difficult half of their annual trials, the SEC regular season. Every SEC team smells the Cat blood in the water, and some of them are already swarming and waiting for their chance to add a rare, treasured W against any UK team.

First on deck is Vanderbilt. My how fortunes have changed for these two teams over the last 2 ½ years. Two years ago, before Vandy's visit to Rupp, the Commodores had NEVER won a game at Rupp Arena. Now, they have handed the Cats four straight defeats over the last 2 seasons, and on Saturday they bring a perfect 16-0 record into Rupp Arena, poised to make it five in a row, and three in a row at Rupp.

The Cats' play this season has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in a turnover on nearly 22% of its total possessions, and

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 34% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds.

Through 16 D1 games this season, VANDERBILT is 16-0 and carries a current RPI ranking of #7 and a RPI SOS of 0.5382 for all games played. After thirteen games, the Cats are 6-7, with an RPI ranking of 214 and a RPI SOS value of 0.5172.

Kentucky averages 80.3 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 81.8 possessions per game. VANDERBILT currently averages 88.7 possessions per game and its opponents currently average only 90.2 possessions per game. VANDERBILT has been getting 1.5 fewer offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has also been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -1.5 per game. UK grabs an average 33.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while VANDERBILT grabs an average 34.3% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 32.9% of their misses as offensive rebounds while VANDERBILT allows its opponents 33.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each .4.6 possessions, and VANDERBILT averages one turnover for each 5.5 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 5.4 opponent possessions while VANDERBILT forces one turnover for each 5.5 opponent possessions. VANDERBILT 's offensive efficiency has been 0.979 ppp and 86.8 points per game. VANDERBILT 's defensive efficiency has been 0.836 ppp while holding opponents to 75.4 ppg. Their NGE is 0.142 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a poorer offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.902 ppp while scoring about 72.4 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.798 ppp on about 65.3 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.104 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5172 for UK and 0.5382 for VANDERBILT .

Based on this performance data for VANDERBILT and UK to date, which includes thirteen regular season games for UK and sixteen regular season games for VANDERBILT, this game is a “pick-em” contest, with the Cats holding a very slim ½ point advantage. Given this slimmest of predictable margins, the NGE model indicates Kentucky is a 1-point favorite, 76-75 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 85 possessions for UK and 85 possessions for VANDERBILT . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.894 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.882 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.012 ppp.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie starts Coury, Bradley, Patterson, Harris, and Crawford.

The Cats open with strong intensity, forcing 3 early Vanderbilt turnovers and dominating the offensive glass 4-0 during the first segment to ease out to an early 6-4 lead at the under 16 TV timeout. Vandy tied the game at 8-8 after their 0-6 start, but the Cats responded to the Commodore charge to extend their early lead back to 3 points, 13-10 at the under 12 TV timeout and two Patterson free throws coming out of the break.

After Patterson converted both free throws, a Vandy turnover fueled a 10 point run for Kentucky, anchored by back to back Jasper threes forcing a Vandy timeout with the score 23-10 with 9:36 to play in the first half. Following the timeout, a Vandy three cut the lead back to 10 points, 23-13 at the under 8 TV timeout. Through the first three segments, the Cats are dominating the boards, 15-6 in total rebounds, and 8-2 on the offensive boards. Furthermore, the Cats hold a slight edge in the turnover area, 4-5. The pace of the game is about 90 possessions for the Cats and 70 for Vandy due to the Cats' control of the offensive glass. Vanderbilt takes advantage of 3 Kentucky turnovers in the next segment to cut the Cats' 13 point lead to 9 points, 26-17 to prompt a Kentucky timeout with 4:19 to play in the half. Out of the timeout, the Cats scored the next 6 points to take their biggest lead of the game, 32-17, but Vandy scored the last 5 points of the half to cut the lead to 10 points, 32-22 at the half.

The first half pace was about 78 possessions for Kentucky and 64 possessions for the VANDERBILT, Kentucky dominated the boards during the first half, 18-9 overall, and 9-2 on the offensive glass Kentucky committed 9 turnovers in the first half, one for every 4.3 possessions. VANDERBILT committed 11 turnovers, one for each 2.9 possessions.

Kentucky shot the ball slightly poorer than average during the first half, 12-26 [46.2%] overall and good 3-7 [42.9%] from long range. VANDERBILT shot the ball poorly for the half, 8-19 [ 42.1%] overall, and VANDERBILT shot the ball about at their average from long range, 3-8 [37.5%].

VANDERBILT scored its 22 points on 32 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.688 ppp. Kentucky scored its 32 points on 39 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.821 ppp.

In the first half, UK was 5-8 [62.5%] and VANDERBILT was 3-5 [60.0%] from the free throw line.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 60 Points. The first team to score its 60 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 28 points, while VANDERBILT needs 38 points. Kentucky scored its 60 th point today on a free throw by Crawford with 2:30 to play and the Cats holding a 5 point lead, 60-55. The teams played out the final 2:30 of the game, and two overtimes before the Cats secured the win today, 79-73.

Second Half Summary:

Vanderbilt opened the second half with a continuation of their first half ending run and cut the 10 point halftime deficit to only 6 points, but the Cats responded to this call and reasserted itself to reestablish its biggest lead, now 15 points for the second time, 44-29 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the next segment, Vanderbilt again mounts a charge of their own, outscoring the Cats 11-3 to cut the l5 point lead to only 7 points at the under 12 TV timeout. Five Kentucky turnovers in the last segment is becoming the storyline of this game, as the Cats now have 16 on the day, one for every 3.7 possessions.

Out of the break, Vandy cut the lead to 4 points, 47-43 on a three pointer, and the teams played ever for the rest of the segment, with the Cats clinging to a 4 point lead, 55-51 at the under 8 TV timeout. The teams played even again in the next segment, with the Cats continuing to cling to a 4 point lead, 57-53 with 3:45 to play in the game. Vandy however was not done, and tied the game at 65-65 with about 15 seconds to play. Kentucky turnovers, 6 in the last 8 minutes continue to cost this team too many scoring opportunities. On the last possession, Bradley drove to the baseline, and got a timeout with 2 seconds to play when he found himself in trouble, and about to commit yet another turnover. Overtime. End of first overtime, 72-72. Double Overtime. Cats Win! Cats Win! Cats Win! 79-73.

Kentucky won the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 45-23, and Kentucky won the battle for the offensive boards, 17-4. Kentucky converted its 17 second chance opportunities into 18 second chance points and VANDERBILT used its 4 second chance opportunities to post only 2 second chance points.

VANDERBILT scored its 73 points on 87 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.839 ppp. Kentucky scored its 79 points on 97 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.814 ppp. VANDERBILT had an offensive efficiency of 0.855 ppp on its 83 first chance possessions and 0.500 ppp for its 4 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.763 ppp on its 80 first chance possessions and 1.059 ppp on its 17 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a powerful 47.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while VANDERBILT was able to convert a pitiful 12.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot below average from the free throw line, 24-36 for the game [66.7%]. VANDERBILT shot a little worse than the Cats from the line, making 16 of their 25 attempts [64.0%]. UK's field goal shooting was below average for the game, shooting 25-57 [43.9%] overall, and UK shot poorly from long range, making 5 of 15 attempts [33.3%]. VANDERBILT's field goal shooting overall was about 44.4% [24-54], and a strong 9-24 [37.5%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 23 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.3 possessions. VANDERBILT committed 22 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.0 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky win, 76-75 [79-73] in a game with 85 and 85 possessions [97-87]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.895 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.814 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.882 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.839 ppp.

This season is now about 1/3 complete, and the Cats stand with a record of only 7-7, 1-0 in the SEC. The Cats' play has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been sound, albeit inconsistent. Today's defense better today, and the Cats' fine work on the board, limiting Vandy to one shot on nearly every possession, was clearly a major factor in that improvement on the defensive end.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Today, The cats had their strong and weak offensive periods during the game. However, their determination and grit on the offensive boards delivered a hard earned victory.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in a turnover on about 22% of its total possessions. Today, the 22 turnovers is one for every 4.3 possessions, or a turnover rate of nearly 23%.

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 33% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds. Today, the Cats owned the back boards from start to finish.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and a “B-” respectively as shown below:

UK – VANDERBILT GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats play next on Tuesday night at Mississippi State in their first road SEC game of the season.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Twenty

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Cats Lose To Cards at Rupp

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