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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

18
Cats Entertain In-State Rival Louisville in Last Non-Conference Game of 2007-08

Pre-Game Analysis:

Twelve games are in the book, and seventeen games remain. These seventeen games are the 16 SEC regular season games plus the annual grudge game for state bragging right against the Louisville Cardinals. This traditional rivalry game is usually played in early December, but to accommodate scheduling conflicts at Louisville, the schools agreed to move this game back 4 weeks this year. Good thing for the Cats because without Meeks or Jasper, there is no way the Cats could have been competitive against the Cards on the traditional early December date.

The Cats bring a 6-6 record into this game and the Cardinals are 9-4, coming off a loss at home to Cincinnati. On paper, and based on each teams' respective non-conference performances to date, the Cardinals should be poised to exact some long overdue sweet revenge on the Cats this year in Rupp. However, the return of Meeks and Jasper has shown that this Kentucky team still has a pulse, and may not be on life support any longer.

The Cats' play this season has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in a turnover on nearly 22% of its total possessions, and

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 34% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds.

Last year, LOUISVILLE finished 24-10, losing to Coach Gillispie's Texas A&M teama at Rupp Arena by 3 points in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. So, in addition to being the annual grudge match between these two proud Kentucky programs, this game is a rematch between coaches Pitino and Gillispie on the Rupp Arena floor.

Through 13 D1 games this season, LOUISVILLE is 9-4 and carries a current RPI ranking of #105 and a RPI SOS of 0.5295 for all games played. After twelve games, the Cats are 6-6, with an RPI ranking of 241 and a RPI SOS value of 0.4815.

Kentucky averages 79.3 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 81.3 possessions per game. LOUISVILLE currently averages 80.3 possessions per game and its opponents currently average only 77.9 possessions per game. LOUISVILLE has been getting 2.4 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -2.0 per game. UK grabs an average 33.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LOUISVILLE grabs an average 36.2% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 33.6% of their misses as offensive rebounds while LOUISVILLE allows its opponents 30.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each .4.7 possessions, and LOUISVILLE averages one turnover for each 5.8 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 5.3 opponent possessions while LOUISVILLE forces one turnover for each 5.3 opponent possessions. LOUISVILLE 's offensive efficiency has been 0.881 ppp and 70.7 points per game. LOUISVILLE 's defensive efficiency has been 0.755 ppp while holding opponents to 58.8 ppg. Their NGE is 0.126 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a higher offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.910 ppp while scoring about 72.2 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.779 ppp on about 63.3 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.130 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.4815 for UK and 0.5295 for LOUISVILLE .

Based on this performance data for LOUISVILLE and UK to date, which includes twelve regular season games for UK and thirteen regular season games for LOUISVILLE, Kentucky is a 3-point favorite, 68-65 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 79 possessions for UK and 81 possessions for LOUISVILLE . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.861 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.802 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.024 ppp.

A game NGE greater than 0.075 ppp will be an impressive victory while a game NGE less than -0.025 ppp will be disappointing. The pre-game magic number is 68 points.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie starts Meeks, Bradley, Patterson, Harris, and Coury, which is the same lineup that started the last game, the 11 th lineup in the first 13 games. No Jasper and no Crawford.

Jasper is the first sub to enter the game at 17:15 to play. The early play reflects very aggressive defensive effort by the Cardinals and poor shooting by the Cats, only 1 of their first 4 threes going down. Louisville opened the game in a zone defense. At the under 16 TV timeout, UL used its defensive intensity to build a 10-5 lead. Out of the timeout, UL continued its surge, forcing a UK timeout with the score 14-5. After extending the lead to 16-5 out of the timeout, the Cats ended a 6 minute scoring drought with a Jasper 3 pointer just before the under 12 TV timeout, Cards leading 16-8. Kentucky managed to cut one point from the 8 point lead in the third segment, to 21-14, but UL will have two free throws coming out of the under 8 TV timeout.

Out of the timeout, the Cats scored a 5-1 run to cut the score to 22-19 prompting Pitino to take a timeout at the 5:55 mark of the half. Kentucky is shooting under 35% and the Cards' shooting has tapered off from the hot start to about 47%. During an extended 4 th game segment, the Cats forged a one point lead on three occasions, but could never build on that lead either time. However, the Cats' shooting continues to climb from the dismal start, now about 43% while the Cards' hot early shooting continues to slip, now about 46%. Turnovers are 5-7 in favor of the Cats and Louisville holds an edge on the offensive boards, 4-3 and second chance points 1-0.. The teams traded baskets to close the half and the Cats clinging to a 1 point lead, 31-30.

The first half pace was about 78 possessions for LOUISVILLE and 76 possessions for the Cats as LOUISVILLE won the battle on the offensive boards during the first half, 5-3. Kentucky committed 9 turnovers in the first half, one for every 4.3 possessions. However, with about 2 minutes to play, they only had 5 turnovers.. LOUISVILLE committed 8 turnovers, one for each 4.9 possessions.

Kentucky shot the ball poorer than average during the first half, 12-28 [42.9%] overall and fair 3-9 [33.3%] from long range. LOUISVILLE shot the ball poorly for the half, 11-27 [ 40.7%] overall, and LOUISVILLE shot the ball very poorly from long range, 3-13 [23.1%].

LOUISVILLE scored its 30 points on 39 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.769 ppp. Kentucky scored its 31 points on 38 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.816 ppp.

In the first half, UK was 4-4 [100.0%] and LOUISVILLE was 5-9 [55.5%] from the free throw line.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 62 Points. The first team to score its 62 nd point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 31 points, while LOUISVILLE needs 32 points. Louisville scored its 62 nd point today on a free throw by Smith with 8:53 to play and the Cards holding a 22 point lead, 62-40. The teams played out the final 8:53 of the game and the Cats got beat today, 74-52.

Second Half Summary:

Three turnovers and a missed shot by the Cats coupled with perfect shooting by the Cards producing 9 points on just 4 possessions forced Coach Gillispie to call a timeout trailing 39-31. The turnovers by the Cats over the last 4 minutes have be 7, after only committing 5 Tos in the first 18 minutes of the game. Following the timeout, the Cats stop the bleeding, and cut the 8 point lead back to 6 points at the under 16 TV timeout, and the score 41-35.

Out of the timeout, the Cards make a 5 point run on a second chance basket and a three pointer following another Patterson miss on the blocks. Coach Gillispie called another timeout at 14:14 to play, trailing by 11 points 46-35. In the second segment of the second half, the Cards reasserted themselves, and ran the lead out to 13 points, 52-39 at the under 12 TV timeout. The game pace is in the mid-70 range for the Cats, and upper 70s for the Cards. The teams trade baskets and points through the third segment of the second half, 64-43 at the under 12 TV timeout.

An 11-2 Kentucky run forced a Louisville timeout with 4:23 to play, and the Cards leading by 13 points, 64-51. But the Cats could never close the gap closer than 10 points, 80-70, and the Cards stopped the Cat run and finished the game with a 14 point margin, 89-75.

Kentucky lost the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 35-34, but Kentucky won the battle for the offensive boards, 9-8. Kentucky converted its 9 second chance opportunities into 5 second chance points and LOUISVILLE used its 8 second chance opportunities to post 5 second chance points.

LOUISVILLE scored its 89 points on 88 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.011 ppp. Kentucky scored its 75 points on 91 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.824 ppp. LOUISVILLE had an offensive efficiency of 1.037 ppp on its 80 first chance possessions and 0.625 ppp for its 8 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.854 ppp on its 82 first chance possessions and 0.556 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a weak 25.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LOUISVILLE was able to convert below average 24.2% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well from the free throw line, 22-27 for the game [81.5%]. LOUISVILLE shot well, but not as well as the Cats from the line, making 33 of their 46 attempts [71.7%]. UK's field goal shooting was below average for the game, shooting 23-56 [41.1%] overall, and UK shot poorly from long range, making 7 of 22 attempts [31.8%]. LOUISVILLE's field goal shooting overall was about 48.1% [25-52], and a very poor 6-20 [30.0%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 22 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.1 possessions. LOUISVILLE committed 14 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.4 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky win, 68-65 [89-75] in a game with 79 and 81 possessions [91and 88]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.861 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.824 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.802 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 1.011 ppp.

This season is now about 1/3 complete, and the Cats stand with a record of only 6-6. The Cats' play has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been sound, albeit inconsistent. Today's defense very porous, allowing over 1 point per possession on the game. The good-bad-good-bad pattern of defensive effort continues

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. Today, the Cats shot the ball well poorly from the beginning of the game, and never recovered from the poor start on the offensive end.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in a turnover on about 22% of its total possessions. Today, the 22 turnovers is one for every 4.1 possessions, or a turnover rate of nearly 25%.

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 33% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds. Today, LOUISVILLE got only 24% of its misses as offensive rebounds, but the Cats could only manage to get over 25% of its misses.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and a “E” respectively as shown below:

UK-LOUISVILLE Grades

UK – LOUISVILLE GRADES

Next Game:

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Nineteen

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Cats Finally Dominate an Opponent From Tip To Buzzer

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