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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

17
Cats Entertain Last Real Cupcake of the 2008 Basketball Season

Pre-Game Analysis:

To say that the first 11 games of the 2007-08 season have been disappointing would be a major understatement, and the Cats wind down their non-conference schedule with a game against Florida International [FIU] at Rupp Arena on New Years Eve. There is little doubt that when schedulers arranged this game, they anticipated yet another cup cake opponent for holiday enjoyment, and the final tune up opportunity going into the annual grudge match against Louisville and the SEC schedule.

However, the Cats bring a losing record, 5-6, into this game, and while on paper there should be little doubt about the outcome of this game, most observers have serious doubts about the ability of this Kentucky team to beat anybody.

The Cats' play this season has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been either porous or sound, with few performances in the murky middle of those extremes.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in a turnover on nearly 25% of its total possessions, and

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 34% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds.

The Cats will host FIU at Rupp Arena Monday afternoon. Last year, FIU finished 10-17, losing to Florida Atlantic in the first round of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament by 3 points, in overtime. The FIU RPI SOS for 2007 was 0.4656. Through 10 D1 games this season, FIU is 2-8.

This season is now in the heart of its schedule with only two more non-conference games remaining before the Cats begin SEC competition again. The absolute values of current RPI rankings and RPI SOS values are gaining significance and reliability. After eleven games, the Cats are 5-6, with an RPI ranking of 219 and a RPI SOS value of 0.5084. FIU on the other hand carries a current RPI ranking of #302 and a RPI SOS of 0.5069 for all games played.

Kentucky averages 78.7 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 81.3 possessions per game. FIU currently averages 82.5 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 82.9 possessions per game. FIU has been getting 0.4 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -2.6 per game. UK grabs an average 32.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FIU grabs an average 31.4% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 33.7% of their misses as offensive rebounds while FIU allows its opponents 33.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each .4.6 possessions, and FIU averages one turnover for each 4.4 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 5.4 opponent possessions while FIU forces one turnover for each 5.5 opponent possessions. FIU 's offensive efficiency has been 0.793 ppp and 65.4 points per game. FIU 's defensive efficiency has been 0.885 ppp while holding opponents to 73.4 ppg. Their NGE is –0.092 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a higher offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.894 ppp while scoring about 70.4 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.795 ppp on about 64.6 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.099 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5084 for UK and 0.5069 for FIU .

Based on this performance data for FIU and UK to date, which includes eleven regular season games for UK and ten regular season games for FIU, Kentucky is a 21-point favorite, 79-58 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 81 possessions for UK and 82 possessions for FIU . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.975 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.707 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.268 ppp.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie starts Meeks, Bradley, Patterson, Harris, and Coury, the 11 th different starting in 12 games.

After two turnovers on the first three possessions, Coach Gillispie brings in Crawford and Jasper with 18:13 to play and the Cats trailing 2-0. A Patterson basket and a Meeks three followed the personnel change, and the Cats led 5-2 at the under 16 TV timeout. Again, 2 turnovers in the first segment, but that is better than most games this season. In the second segment, the Cats rode 4-5 shooting from 3 point range to extend their early lead to 7 points, 16-9 at the under 12 TV timeout. During that stretch, Meeks hit 2 and Jasper made his first basket, a three, of the season. Turnovers stand at 3 of UK, on for every 4.3 possessions, which is still too many. The pace is about 65 to 75 possessions early in the game.

The Cats continued to extend their early lead, extending it to 28-12 prompting a FIU timeout at the 6:40 mark of the half. Following the timeout, FIU hit their second three pointer of the game on five attempts to draw back to 28-15 at the under 8 TV timeout and 6:15 to play. The pace is in the low 70s to 80 range, and the Cats have reduced their turnover rate to one in 7.3 possessions. In the abbreviated 4 th segment of the half, the Cats outscored FIU 8-0 on 5 possessions to extend their lead to 36-15 at the under 4 TV timeout. The pace continues at about 68 to 70 possessions, and the Cats continue to protect their possessions, with only 3 turnovers in 27 possessions.

The Cats coasted into the locker room for the half, and they rode the back of a couple of aggressive Bradley baskets within the last few seconds and 3 for 4 free through shooting, and out scoring FIU 7-6 and take a 22 point lead in at the half, 43-21.

The first half pace was about 78 possessions for FIU and 74 possessions for the Cats as FIU won the battle on the offensive boards during the first half, 9-6, but the Cats got the first and last possessions of the half, 39-37. Kentucky committed only 6 turnovers in the first half, one for every 6.2 possessions. However, with about 2 minutes to play, they only had 3 turnovers when Carter entered the game and he committed two turnovers for his 2 minutes of play. FIU committed 9 turnovers, one for each 4.3 possessions.

Kentucky shot the ball about average during the first half, 12-24 [50.0%] overall and a terrfic 7-13 [53.8%] from long range. FIU shot the ball poorly for the half, 7-26 [ 26.9%] overall, but FIU shot the ball a little better from long range, 2-6 [33.3%].

FIU scored its 21 points on 39 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.538 ppp. Kentucky scored its 43 points on 37 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.162 ppp.

In the first half, UK was 12-15 [80.0%] and FIU was 5-8 [62.5%] from the free throw line.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 76 Points. The first team to score its 76 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 33 points, while FIU needs 55 points. Kentucky scored its 76 th point today on a free throw by Meeks with 7:27 to play and the Cats holding a 38 point lead, 76-38. The teams played out the final 7:27 of the game and the Cats secured the win, 81-49.

Second Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie returns to his original starting 5 to begin the second half. The Cats start the second half slowly, being outscoring 9-2 out of the gate, cutting the lead to 15 points, 45-30. However, a 5 point streak moved the lead back to 20 points prompting a FIU timeout at 15:57 to play. The Cats committed two more turnovers in this opening segment, for one every 5.6 possessions for the game. In the extended second game segment, the Cats outscored FIU 11-4 and extended the lead to 27 points, 61-34 with 10:52 to play at the under 12 TV timeout. Kentucky. In the abbreviated third segment, the Cats again out scored FIU, 13-4 to extend this huge lead to 36 points, 74-38 at the under 8 TV timeout. The rout is on, and at the under 4 TV timeout, the Cats lead by 42 points, 85-43, and close out the game unloading the bench with 2 ½ minutes to play, 92-49.

Kentucky won the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 38-27, and Kentucky won the battle for the offensive boards, 13-12. Kentucky converted its 13 second chance opportunities into 8 second chance points and FIU used its 12 second chance opportunities to post 13 second chance points.

FIU scored its 49 points on 81 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.605 ppp. Kentucky scored its 92 points on 82 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.133 ppp. FIU had an offensive efficiency of 0.522 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 1.083 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.217 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 0.615 ppp on its 13 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a strong 46.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while FIU was able to convert an average 32.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well from the free throw line, 31-40 for the game [77.5%]. FIU shot well, but not as well as the Cats from the line, making 12 of their 17 attempts [70.6%]. UK's field goal shooting was average for the game, shooting 25-51 [49.0%] overall, and UK shot very well from long range, making 11 of 22 attempts [50.0%]. FIU's field goal shooting overall was about 30.9% [17-56], and a very poor 3-13 [23.1%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 14 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.1 possessions. FIU committed 17 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.7 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky win, 79-58 [92-49] in a game with 81 and 82 possessions [82 and 81]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.975 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 1.122 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.707 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.605 ppp.

This season is now about 1/3 complete, and the Cats stand with a record of only 6-6. The Cats' play has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been sound, albeit inconsistent. Today's defense was better than anticipated given both teams' performances to date, but as noted previously, this game to game swing between effective and ineffective defense reflects this team's season long inconsistency.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. As with the season, the Cats shot the ball well overall and from the line, but in a departure from their season record, the Cats shot the ball very well from long range today.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in a turnover on about 25% of its total possessions. Today, the 14 turnovers is one for every 6.1possessions, or a turnover rate of 16.5%. This is a significant improvement over recent games.

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 33% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds. Today, FIU got only 32% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while the Cats could only manage to get over 46% of its misses.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B+” and a “B-” respectively as shown below:

UK-FIU Grades

UK – FIU GRADES

Next Game:

The Cats play next on Saturday afternoon against arch rival Louisville, January 5, 2008 at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Eighteen

Go Back
Cats Lose To San Diego at Rupp;
Third Non-Conference Home Loss of Year

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SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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