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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

16
Cats Hope To Return To Full Strength For Game Against San Diego

Pre-Game Analysis:

So far this season, Harris has missed several games due to a stress fracture, and Patterson has missed one game due to a turned ankle. However, both of them returned to play essentially on schedule without further incidence. However, Meeks and Jasper tell a different story about injuries. Jasper returned for one game, only to miss the next [last game] with yet another injury, and Jasper attempted to return to practice a couple of weeks ago, only to hobble off the court in pain after only a couple of days of practice activity.

Reports released yesterday indicate that Jasper may be able to play today for the first time this season, and that Meeks' status remains day-to-day. Could this game be the one in which the Cats return to full strength, to the roster we all anticipated in July, August, and September? I for one certainly hope this is the case.

The Cats finally ended a four game skid last Saturday, and look to make it back to back victories today against San Diego. This season is now about 1/3 complete, and the Cats stand with a record of only 5-5. The Cats' play has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been sound, albeit inconsistent.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in a turnover on about 25% of its total possessions, and

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 33% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds.

For the first time all season, the Cats' board work showed signs of life against TTU as the Cats limited TTU to about 17% of its misses on the boards. Today, we should watch to see whether that strong board work was an anomaly or the beginning of better board play that will carry this team forward for the remainder of the season. However, turnovers continue to haunt this team like no other UK team at least since 1972.

The Cats will host San Diego at Rupp Arena today. Last year, SAN DIEGO finished 15-14, losing to Gonzaga in the Championship Game of the West Coast Conference Tournament by 18 points. The SAN DIEGO RPI SOS for 2007 was 0.4685. Through 13 D1 games this season, SAN DIEGO is 5-8.

This season is now in the heart of its schedule with only three more non-conference games remaining before the Cats begin SEC competition again. The absolute values of current RPI rankings and RPI SOS values are gaining significance and reliability. After ten games, the Cats are 5-5, with an RPI ranking of 206 and a RPI SOS value of 0.5059. SAN DIEGO on the other hand carries a current RPI ranking of #178 and a RPI SOS of 0.5430 for all games played.

Kentucky averages 78.8 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 81.3 possessions per game. SAN DIEGO currently averages 77.3 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 75.5 possessions per game. SAN DIEGO has been getting 1.8 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -2.5 per game. UK grabs an average 33.7% of its misses as offensive rebounds while SAN DIEGO grabs an average 33.8% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 33.0% of their misses as offensive rebounds while SAN DIEGO allows its opponents only 29.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each .4.5 possessions, and SAN DIEGO averages one turnover for each 4.9 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 5.4 opponent possessions while SAN DIEGO forces one turnover for each 5.0 opponent possessions. SAN DIEGO 's offensive efficiency has been 0.793 ppp and 61.3 points per game. SAN DIEGO 's defensive efficiency has been 0.843 ppp while holding opponents to 63.7 ppg. Their NGE is –0.050 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a higher offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.891 ppp while scoring about 70.2 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.775 ppp on about 63.0 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.115 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5059 for UK and 0.5430 for SAN DIEGO .

Based on this performance data for SAN DIEGO and UK to date, which includes ten regular season games for UK and thirteen regular season games for SAN DIEGO, Kentucky is a 23-point favorite, 76-53 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 77 possessions for UK and 79 possessions for SAN DIEGO . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.987 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.671 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.316 ppp.

A game NGE greater than 0.40 ppp will be an impressive victory while a game NGE less than 0.2 ppp will be disappointing. The pre-game magic number is 66 points.

First Half Summary:

Before game time, Jasper warmed up with the team for the first time this season, and Coach Gillispie said he is hopeful that Jasper and Meeks can and will play today, but he can't be sure of that until game time. Coach Gillispie starts Porter, Bradley, Patterson, Harris, and Stewart, the 10th different starting in 11 games.

The Cats begin this game in much the same way they have started too many games this season, with 4 turnovers on their first 7 possessions, and falling behind early 11-5 due to extremely poor [1-8] early shooting. Turnover, turnovers, turnovers. The Cats cut the lead slightly to 14-9, and Jasper enters the game for the first time with about 12 minutes to play in the first half. The Cats then score the next 4 points, to cut the lead to 1 point, 14-13 at the under 12 TV timeout.

Jasper picked up two quick fouls and left the game with about 9:15 to play. Just a few seconds later, Bradley committed his second foul, putting SDU into the bonus. However, Jasper returned to the game with about 8 minutes to play, as SDU stretched their lead to 6 points again, 23-17 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the early going, the Cats are shooting the ball poorly, 7-18 and SDU is only 5-14, but SDU is 9-10 from the free throw line, and 4-7 from long range to establish their lead. The pace is about 80 possessions for the game.

Two Kentucky baskets off Jasper assists sandwiching a Patterson jumper from 17 feet forced a SDU timeout with 4:28 to play in the half, and the lead standing at only 2 points, 26-24. The teams exchange baskets for the next 1 ½ minutes, and the teams go to the bench for the under 4 TV timeout with SDU still leading, 31-28. The pace is about 78 possessions, and after committing 4 turnovers in their first 8 possessions, the Cats have only committed one turnover on their last 23 possessions.

In the last segment of the half, the Cats managed to tie the score twice, at 31 and 33 before heading to the locker room trailing by 2 points, 35-33.

The first half pace was about 72 possessions for SAN DIEGO and 74 possessions for the Cats as SAN and Kentucky battled even on the offensive boards during the first half, 6-6, but the Cats got the first and last possessions of the half for the 1 possession advantage, 37-36. Kentucky committed 7 turnovers in the first half, one for every 5.4 possessions. SAN DIEGO committed 6 turnovers, one for each 6.0 possessions. Kentucky shot the ball about average during the first half, 13-27 [48.1%] overall and a poor 2-7 [28.6%] from long range. SAN DIEGO shot the ball poorly for the half, 9-24 [ 37.5%] overall, but San Diego shot the ball lights out from long range, 6-11 [54.5%].

SAN DIEGO scored its 35 points on 36 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.972 ppp. Kentucky scored its 33 points on 37 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.892 ppp.

In the first half, UK was 5-8 [62.5%] and SAN DIEGO was 11-12 [91.7%] from the free throw line.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 70 Points. The first team to score its 70 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 37 points, while SAN DIEGO needs 35 points. SDU scored its 70 th point today on a free throw by Pomare with 1:40 to play and SDU holding a zz point lead, 71-61. The teams played out the final 1:40 of the game and SDU secured the win, 81-72.

Second Half Summary:

The second half starts almost as sluggishly as did the first half, but this time, SDU committed 5 turnovers on its first 9 possessions and the Cats committed 2 on their first 8, and the Cats tied the score at 37, and 39 at the under 16 TV timeout. The teams played to ties at 41, and 43 before SDU eased back out to a 3 point lead, 46-43 at the under 12 TV timeout. During the first 8 minutes of the second half, SDU has committed 6 turnover, and gotten 6 offensive rebounds and 3 second chance points to remain in control of this ball game. The Cats have committed 10 turnovers to SDU's 12, and offensive boards are now 10-6 in SDU's favor after battling even, 6-6 in the first half.

After the TV timeout, SDU made a mini-run on the Cats, outscoring them 8-3, prompting a UK timeout with just under 9 minutes to play in the game and SDU holding its biggest lead of the day, 8 points, 54-46. During this run, Bradley threw up an air ball on one end, and committed his fourth foul at the other in about 15 seconds. The offensive rebounding and three point shooting continue to be the story of this game. At the under 8 TV timeout, the Cats trail by 4, 54-50. At the under 4 TV timeout, SDU again holds its biggest lead, 8 points, at 65-57 with 3:25 to play. SDU nailed the lid on this coffin over the last 3 ½ minutes by making 12-12 from the line as the Cats had to foul to extend the game and attempt a comeback, that failed to ever materialize. The final score, 81-72.

Kentucky lost the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 34-25, and Kentucky lost the battle for the offensive boards, 13-7. Kentucky converted its 7 second chance opportunities into 6 second chance points and SAN DIEGO used its 13 second chance opportunities to post 14 second chance points.

SAN DIEGO scored its 81 points on 82 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.988 ppp. Kentucky scored its 72 points on 77 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.935 ppp. SAN DIEGO had an offensive efficiency of 0.971 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 1.077 ppp for its 13 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.930 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 0.857 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a poor 25.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while SAN DIEGO was able to convert an astounding 41.9% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot well from the free throw line, 19-24 for the game [79.2%]. However, SAN DIEGO shot even better from the line, making 32 of their 36 attempts [88.9%]. UK's field goal shooting was above average for the game, shooting 25-50 [50.0%] overall, and UK shot poorly from long range, making 3 of 13 attempts [23.1%]. SAN DIEGO's field goal shooting overall was about 41.7% [20-48], and a very strong 9-16 [56.3%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 16 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.9 possessions. SAN DIEGO committed 16 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 5.1 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky win, 76-53 [72-81] in a game with 77 and 79 possessions [77 and 82]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.987 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.935 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.671ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.988 ppp.

This season is now about 1/3 complete, and the Cats stand with a record of only 5-6. The Cats' play has been marked by:

•  A defense that has been sound, albeit inconsistent. Today's defense was pitiful, and further indication of that season long inconsistency.

•  An offense that has struggled, albeit better than average shooting from the floor and free throw line. As with the season, the Cats shot the ball well overall and from the line, but from long range, the Cats struggled today again.

•  Poor ball handling, that results in a turnover on about 25% of its total possessions. Today, the 16 turnovers is one for every 4.9 possessions, or a turnover rate of 20.5%. This is an improvement over recent games, but not sufficient improvement.

•  Poor rebounding that has permitted opponents to get 33% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds. Today, SDU got nearly 42% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while the Cats could only manage to get 25% of its misses.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “D+” and a “E” respectively as shown below:

UK-SAN DIEGO Grades

UK – SAN DIEGO GRADES

Next Game:

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Seventeen

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Cats Limp Home To Rupp and Stop Four Game Losing Streak

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