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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

15
Cats Limp Back Home to Rupp To End Four Game Losing Streak

Pre-Game Analysis:

Three weeks ago, the Cats lost at Rupp Arena to a powerful Tarheel team by 9 points. Thereafter, the Cats took to the road for three consecutive games, losing at Indiana and Houston, and also losing at Freedom Hall in Louisville to UAB. For only the third time since the arrival of Adolph Rupp, a Kentucky team has lost four consecutive non-conference games.

Tuesday night, Jodie Meeks returned to the floor for the first time since his stress fracture, but his return was offset by the loss of Patterson to an ankle injury. While Meeks provided an immediate offensive spark for the Cats, Patterson's absence allowed Houston to own the boards, and the +10 offensive rebounding margin Houston earned, coupled with Kentucky's continuing affinity for turnovers on about 25% of its possessions were too much for the offensive effort to overcome.

Today, Patterson will return to action along side of Meeks, and the Cats are as close to full strength as they have been all season, with only the services of Derrick Jasper still lost to the team.

The Cats will host Tennessee Tech at Rupp Arena today. Last year, TENNESSEE TECH finished 18-13, losing to Eastern Kentucky in a second round Game of the OVC Tournament by 3 points. The TENNESSEE TECH RPI SOS for 2007 was 0.4707. Through 9 games this season, TENNESSEE TECH is 2-7, and its most impressive win of this young season was on the road over Oregon State by 17 points in their last game.

As this young season approaches the 1/3 point, the absolute values of current RPI rankings and RPI SOS values are gaining significance, and the reliability in these numbers continues to increase. After nine games, the Cats are 4-5, with an RPI ranking of 190 and a RPI SOS value of 0.5393. TENNESSEE TECH on the other hand carries a current RPI ranking of #316 and a RPI SOS of 0.4169 for all games played.

Kentucky averages 78.7 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 81.6 possessions per game. TENNESSEE TECH currently averages 91.9 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 89.2 possessions per game. TENNESSEE TECH has been getting 2.7 more offensive rebounds per game than its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -2.9 per game. UK grabs an average 33.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE TECH grabs an above average 40.7% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 35.2% of their misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE TECH allows its opponents 37.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each .4.6 possessions, and TENNESSEE TECH averages one turnover for each 5.0 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 5.4 opponent possessions while TENNESSEE TECH forces one turnover for each 4.7 opponent possessions. TENNESSEE TECH 's offensive efficiency has been 0.765 ppp and 70.3 points per game. TENNESSEE TECH 's defensive efficiency has been 0.856 ppp while holding opponents to 76.3 ppg. Their NGE is –0.091 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a higher offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.893 ppp while scoring about 70.3 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.794 ppp on about 64.8 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.099 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5393 for UK and 0.4169 for TENNESSEE TECH .

Based on this performance data for TENNESSEE TECH and UK to date, which includes nine regular season games for UK and nine regular season games for TENNESSEE TECH, Kentucky is a 33-point favorite, 87-54 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 84 possessions for UK and 87 possessions for TENNESSEE TECH . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 1.036 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.621 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.415 ppp.

A game NGE greater than 0.50 ppp will be an impressive victory while a game NGE less than 0.3 ppp will be disappointing. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.

First Half Summary:

Just prior to game time, UK reported that Meeks would be doubtful for the game today, and that Patterson's status remained uncertain. In addition, there appears to be some question about the two seniors, Bradley and Crawford, and according to Tom Leach, neither will start the game today. This is devastating news for a Kentucky team that is struggling and has not play a game this season with fewer than 2 of its players out due to injury. In view of these continuing limitations, Coach Gillispie starts Porter, Stevenson, Patterson, Coury and Harris, the ninth different starting 5 in 10 games.

The first player off the bench for the Cats is Carter about 2 ½ minutes into the game. This ragtag starting group, plus Carter started slowly, due to 4 early turnovers, and traded baskets with TTU to take a 10-8 early lead at the under 16 TV timeout. Stewart is the second player off the bench, and the Cats hit 3 of 6 shots, commit two more turnovers, and extend their fragile early lead to 4 points, 16-12 at the under 16 TV timeout. After two segments, the pace is on a 90 to 100 possession pace. The teams played on even terms in the third segment of the game, with the Cats committing two more turnovers. The pace of this game is about 83 to 87 possessions, and TTU holds a +1 advantage in the offensive rebounds about 1/3 of the way through this game. After a pair of Carter free throws gave the Cats their biggest lead, 20-14, 4 straight TTU points prompted a Kentucky timeout with 6:29 to play in the first half. The Cats answered Coach's call, and scored 6 straight points of their own out of the timeout, prompting a TTU timeout at 5:02 to play and the Cats holding their biggest lead, 8 points, 26-18. The TTU timeout stopped the Kentucky run, at least for the moment, as the teams go to the under 4 TV timeout holding the same score.

With about 3 ½ minutes to go in the first half, the pace of the game is mid 80s to 90 possessions, and TTU holds a +2 advantage on the offensive boards. The turnover battle is strongly in TTU's favor, 11-6. The Cats have committed one turnover for each 3.1 possessions. The teams swapped points over the last 3 ½ minutes for a halftime score of 29-21.

The first half pace was about 84 possessions for TENNESSEE TECH and 80 possessions for the Cats as TENNESSEE TECH controlled the offensive boards during the first half, gaining an additional 2 possessions in the half on the strength of an 5-3 advantage on the offensive boards. Kentucky committed 12 turnovers in the first half, one for every 3.3 possessions. TENNESSEE TECH committed 7 turnovers, one for each 6.0 possessions. Kentucky shot the ball about average during the first half, 12-26 [46.2%] overall and a good 2-5 [40.0%] from long range. TENNESSEE TECH shot the ball poorly for the half, 8-32 25.0%] overall, but Tennessee Tech shot the ball even more poorly from long range, 2-9 [22.2%].

TENNESSEE TECH scored its 21 points on 42 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.500 ppp. Kentucky scored its 29 points on 40 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.725 ppp.

In the first half, UK was 3-4 [75.0%] and TENNESSEE TECH was 3-7 [42.9%] from the free throw line.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 55 Points. The first team to score its 55 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 26 points, while TENNESSEE TECH needs 34 points. Kentucky scored its 55 th point today on a free throw by Bradley with 9:23 to play and the Cats holding a zz point lead, 55-34. The Cats played out the final 9:23 of the game to secure the win, 70-47.

Second Half Summary:

The second half starts very slowly for the Cats, and with 17 minutes to play, Crawford gets into his game for the first time, and Crawford proceeds to foul a three point shooter. Bradley enters the game for the first time during the free throws. The TTU players converted 2 of his 3 attempts to cut the lead to 5 points, 30-25. The Cats then score the next 4 points to stretch their lead back to 9 points, 34-25 at the under 16 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, the Cats continued to extend their lead, and a Bradley 3 pointer gave the Cats their biggest lead of the game, 15 points, 43-28, prompting a TTU timeout with 12:29 to play in the game. The pace of play in the second half has slowed considerably, with the Cats scoring 14 points on 13 possessions and TTU scoring 7 points on 12 possessions.

The Cats break open the game following the under 12 TV timeout, outscoring TTU 18-7 to build their lead to 26 points, 61-35 at the under 8 TV timeout. The teams played even during the 4 segment of the second half, primarily due to the Cats' 5 turnovers in their 11 possessions. The score was 67-42 at the under 4 TV timeout with 3:01 to play in the game. The teams played out the final 3 minutes with Kentucky winning by 22 points, 69-47.

Kentucky won the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 46-25, and Kentucky battled even on the offensive boards, 8-8. Kentucky converted its 8 second chance opportunities into 9 second chance points and TENNESSEE TECH used its 8 second chance opportunities to post 5 second chance points.

TENNESSEE TECH scored its 47 points on 77 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.610 ppp. Kentucky scored its 69 points on 80 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.863 ppp. TENNESSEE TECH had an offensive efficiency of 0.609 ppp on its 69 first chance possessions and 0.625 ppp for its 8 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.833 ppp on its 72 first chance possessions and 1.125 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a marginal 32.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE TECH was able to convert a poor 17.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the free throw line, 13-19 for the game [68.4%]. However, TENNESSEE TECH shot even worse from the line, making 15 of their 25 attempts [60.0%]. UK's field goal shooting was above average for the game, shooting 26-49 [53.1%] overall, and UK shot poorly from long range, making 4 of 13 attempts [30.8%]. TENNESSEE TECH's field goal shooting overall was about 26.4% [14-53], and a very poor 4-17 [23.5%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 21 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 3.8 possessions. TENNESSEE TECH committed 13 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 6.0 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky win, 87-54 [69-47] in a game with 83 and 87 possessions [80 and 77]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 1.036 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.863 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.621ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.610 ppp.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “E” and a “C” respectively as shown below:

UK-TENNESSEE TECH Grades

UK – TENNESSEE TECH GRADES

Next Game:

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Sixteen

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Cats Lose Fourth Consecutive Non-Conference Game for Only
Third Time in nearly 80 years

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SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
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