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2007-08 Season Analytical Writings

14
Cats Travel To Houston Sliding On a Three Game Losing Streak

Pre-Game Analysis:

On Saturday, the Cats showed some encouraging signs of life, primarily in the first half that saw them build an impressive 12 point lead. However, Saturday's game was a Tale of Two Halves, and in the second half the Cats' defense abandoned them as UAB scored 51 points on merely 33 possessions to leave the Cats on the short end of the score, 79-76 when the final horn sounded. Tonight, the Cats take to the road for only the second time of the season with the prospects of becoming only the third UK team since the arrival of Rupp in 1930 to lose more than three consecutive non-conference games.

The impact that injuries to Meeks and Jasper has had on this team are well chronicled, and as recently as Saturday, many people had concluded that Meeks probably would not return to action this season, and that Jasper's recent set back in his recovery would seal his fate to remain in street clothes for the rest of this season also. However, on his TV show Sunday morning, Coach Gillispie said that he still had hopes that Jasper could return, and on Sunday, doctors released Meeks to return to practice. On Monday, Coach Gillispie reported that Meeks had participated in two consecutive practices without incidence and could play as soon as tonight against Houston.

Meeks' anticipated return could provide a badly needed spark for a team in dire need of some good news.

For the third consecutive game, the Cats will play away from Rupp Arena, this time on the opponent's home court. Last year, HOUSTON finished 18-15, losing to Memphis in the Championship Game of the Conference USA Tournament by 12 points. The HOUSTON RPI SOS for 2007 was 0.5522. Through 10 games this season, HOUSTON is 9-1, with its only loss coming from Virginia Commonwealth by 1 point in San Juan PR on November 15.

As this young season approaches the 1/3 point, the absolute values of current RPI rankings and RPI SOS values are gaining significance, and the reliability in these numbers continues to increase. After eight games, the Cats are 4-4, with an RPI ranking of 180 and a RPI SOS value of 0.5371. HOUSTON on the other hand carries a current RPI ranking of #131 and a RPI SOS of 0.4154 for all games played.

Kentucky averages 79.1 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 80.8 possessions per game. HOUSTON currently averages 81.3 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 80.9 possessions per game. HOUSTON has been getting as many offensive rebounds as its opponents while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -1.7 per game. UK grabs 35.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while HOUSTON grabs an above average 32.4% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 34.9% of their misses as offensive rebounds while HOUSTON only allows its opponents only 32.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds.

With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each .4.7 possessions, and HOUSTON averages one turnover for each 7.9 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 5.0 opponent possessions while HOUSTON forces one turnover for each 4.6 opponent possessions. HOUSTON 's offensive efficiency has been 0.960 ppp and 78.0 points per game. HOUSTON 's defensive efficiency has been 0.773 ppp while holding opponents to 62.5 ppg. Their NGE is 0.187 ppp.

Kentucky has posted a lower offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.892 ppp while scoring about 70.5 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.773 ppp on about 62.5 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.118 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5371 for UK and 0.4154 for HOUSTON .

Based on this performance data for HOUSTON and UK to date, which includes eight regular season games for UK and ten regular season games for HOUSTON, Kentucky is a 1-point underdog, 68-69 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 80 possessions for UK and 81 possessions for HOUSTON . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.850 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.852 ppp, for a game NGE of –0.020 ppp.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie starts Porter, Bradley, Harris, Coury and Crawford. Patrick Patterson is sitting down due to an ankle injury, and Meeks is not inserted into the starting line up. However, Meeks came into the game very quickly for Harris.

In the first segment, Houston raced out to an early 5 point lead 10-5 and again 12-7, but a three by Meeks right before the break cut the lead to 2 points, 12-10. The Cats committed 3 early turnovers, one for each 3.7 possessions in the early going, while Houston's 2 turnovers is one for each 6.5 possessions. The pace of this game in the early going is between 80 and 85 possessions, and Kentucky has offset its 4 early turnovers with 58% shooting while Houston has only had 2 turnovers, but only shooting the ball at about a 46% clip, and the teams are 16-16 at the under 12 TV timeout of the first half.

Coach Gillispie has gone to his bench early and often in the first 8 minutes, playing Stevenson, Meeks, and Carter. In the third segment, Houston scored the first 6 points [22-16] but a pair of Meeks' threes tied the game again, and the teams exchanged baskets to go to the under 8 TV timeout tied at 27 points. The pace is about 77 possessions for Kentucky, but 93 possessions for Houston on the strength of Houston's 7-1 offensive rebounding advantage.

Houston eased back into the lead and continues to control the boards, 18-10 in total rebounds, and a commanding 8-1 margin on the offensive boards. At the under 4 TV timeout, the score is 37-33 in Houston's favor. The story of this game is a common theme, poor offensive rebounding and too many turnovers. Out of the timeout, Houston makes 2 three pointers, one following another offensive rebound to complete an 8 point run and stretch the lead to 10 points, 43-33, forcing an unscheduled Kentucky timeout with 2:23 to play in the first half. The Cats failed to score again in the half, and trail by 12 points, 45-33 at the half.

The first half pace was about 94 possessions for HOUSTON and 74 possessions for the Cats as HOUSTON owned the offensive boards during the first half, gaining an additional 9 possessions in the half on the strength of an 11-2 advantage on the offensive boards. Kentucky committed 11 turnovers in the first half, one for every 3.4 possessions. HOUSTON committed 5 turnovers, one for each 9.4 possessions. Kentucky shot the ball well during the first half, 12-23 [52.2%] overall and a very strong 5.9 [55.6%] from long range. HOUSTON shot the ball poorly for the half, 13-36 [36.1%] overall, but Houston shot the ball very well from long range, 7-19 [36.8%].

HOUSTON scored its 45 points on 47 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.957 ppp. Kentucky scored its 33 points on 37 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.892 ppp.

In the first half, UK was 4-7 [57.1%] and HOUSTON was 12-13 [92.3%] from the free throw line.

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 85 Points. The first team to score its 85 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 52 points, while HOUSTON needs 40 points. Neither team scored 85 points tonight, with Houston falling 2 points shy of the mark in their 83-69 victory.

Second Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie returned to the same starting 5 to begin the second half of the game.

A Porter three from the corner followed by a Houston turnover prompted Houston to take a very quick time out with 19:33 remaining in the game and Houston continuing to lead by 9 points, 45-36. The timeout was effective for Houston as they reasserted their dominance on the offensive boards, and forced Kentucky into 2 more turnovers to extend their lead to 14 points, 51-37 at the under 16 TV timeout. The onslaught continues through the second segment of the second half, and at the under 12 TV timeout, Houston leads by 21 points, 64-43. Eight minutes into the second half, Kentucky has not matched Houston's halftime score. At the under 8 TV timeout, the score stands at 72-48, a 24 point Houston lead.

With Patrick Patterson sitting on the bench tonight, and Meeks returning, we are seeing what this team would have been like had Tubby Smith remained at Kentucky. How sad to see the once great UK basketball program reduced to rubble.

The Cats outscored Houston during the 4 th segment of the second half 10-0 to cut the lead to “only” 14 points, 72-58. The teams played out the final 4 minutes with Houston taking a 14 point victory, 83-69.

Kentucky lost the battle of the boards for total rebounds, 38-33, and Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards, 16-6, -10. Kentucky converted its 6 second chance opportunities into 7 second chance points and HOUSTON used its 16 second chance opportunities to post 28 second chance points.

HOUSTON scored its 83 points on 86 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.965 ppp. Kentucky scored its 69 points on 74 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.932 ppp. HOUSTON had an offensive efficiency of 0.786 ppp on its 70 first chance possessions and 1.750 ppp for its 16 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 0.912 ppp on its 68 first chance possessions and 1.167 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions.

UK grabbed a pathetic 21.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while HOUSTON was able to convert an above average 37.2% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK shot poorly from the free throw line, 11-16 for the game [68.8%]. However, HOUSTON made a living from the line for this game, making 28 of their 35 attempts [80.0%]. UK's field goal shooting was above average for the game, shooting 25-50 [50.0%] overall, and UK shot very well from long range, making 8 of 20 attempts [40.0%]. HOUSTON's field goal shooting overall was about 36.1% [22-61], and a good 11-29 [37.9%] from long range.

Kentucky committed 18 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 4.2 possessions. HOUSTON committed 9 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 9.7 possessions.

Post Game Analysis:

Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky loss, 67-70 [69-83] in a game with 80 and 81 possessions [74 and 86]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.838 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 0.932 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.864 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 0.965 ppp.

Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “B-” and a “D+” respectively as shown below:

UK-HOUSTON Grades

Next Game:

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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Cats Reeling on Three Game Losing Streak

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