BIG BLUE FANS FOR
2007-08 Season Analytical Writings 13 Pre-Game Analysis: The Kentucky Wildcats find themselves at 4-3 in Mid-December. Barely two months after the anticipation created for this season at the Big Blue Madness, there are more questions swirling around this program today than before the season began. The roster for this edition of Cats was admittedly thin under the best of conditions. Injuries and the defection of Freshman Alex Legion has left Coach Gillispie with few options, none of which are very attractive. Meeks remains sidelined indefinitely as there have been multiple reports that suggest he may miss this entire season. Jasper's recovering from delicate knee surgery has been slower than hoped, and his status remains uncertain. Questions abound: Will the two seniors on this team ever step up and provide badly needed leadership on the floor? Will Jasper or Meeks be able to play at all this season? Will the loss of Coach Gillispie's first UK recruit have a lasting negative impact upon his ability to recruit the quality of players that this program must have before it can again compete on the national stage against traditional rivals like UNC and IU? Can this team win more games than it will lose this season? There is an uneasiness among the Big Blue Nation that has released the throng of Tubby Smith defenders from their self imposed silence, driving that huge wedge that Tubby constructed even deeper into the Big Blue Psyche. This leads to one final question that looms. Has the UK program reached rock bottom of the Tubby saga yet, or will we witness further decline before Coach Gillispie begins to raise this Phoenix from its ashes? The Cats enter their annual game in Louisville's Freedom Hall on a two game losing streak. Since the arrival of Adolph Rupp over 75 years ago, Kentucky has lost three consecutive non-conference games 8 times, and the Cats must win on Saturday night to avoid the distinction of being the 9 th squad to accomplish this dubious achievement. UAB is the opponent. UAB and Kentucky have a history, each winning 2 of their four previous meetings. However, the tenor of this particular matchup is heightened because UAB's coach is former Alabama player and IU head coach Mike Davis. Mike Davis has not been bashful in expressing to everyone his total and complete disdain for anything related to Kentucky basketball. However, Mike Davis has a problem with UAB team that he did not have while he lurked around Bloomington. His UAB team is not very good. Fortunately for him, his next opponent, our Cats, are not very good either. The Cats will again play away from Rupp Arena, but Freedom Hall has provided a friendly venue for the Cats over the years, and there is no reason to doubt that Freedom Hall will be favorable for the Cats this year as well. Last year, UAB finished 15-16, losing to Marshall in the First Round of the Conference USA Tournament by 1 point. The UAB RPI SOS for 2007 was 0.5192. Through 11 games this season, UAB is 7-4, with losses to Florida State by 8, Georgia Southern by 2, Rhode Island by 5 and South Florida by 10. The first three losses occurred on neutral courts [Daytona Beach]. As this young season continues to emerge, the absolute values of current RPI rankings and RPI SOS values have little significance, but the reliability in these numbers is beginning to increase. After seven games, the Cats are 4-3, with an RPI ranking of 143 and a RPI SOS value of 0.5496. UAB on the other hand carries a current RPI ranking of #160 and a RPI SOS of 0.4661 for all games played. Kentucky averages 80.2 possessions per game while UK 's opponents have averaged 81.9 possessions per game. UAB currently averages 81.7 possessions per game and its opponents currently average 84.0 possessions per game. UAB has been losing the offensive rebounding battles to its opponents by about -2.3 per game this season while UK has been losing the battle of the offensive glass, -1.7 per game. UK grabs 35.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while UAB grabs an above average 32.2% of its misses. Kentucky 's opponents an above average 35.8% of their misses as offensive rebounds while UAB only allows its opponents only 32.9% of its misses as offensive rebounds. With respect to turnovers, UK averages one turnover for each .4.8 possessions, and UAB averages one turnover for each 5.0 possessions. However, UK has been forcing turnovers more frequently; one for each 4.8 opponent possessions while UAB forces one turnover for each 5.2 opponent possessions. UAB 's offensive efficiency has been 0.908 ppp and 74.2 points per game. UAB 's defensive efficiency has been 0.744 ppp while holding opponents to 62.5 ppg. Their NGE is 0.165 ppp. Kentucky has posted a lower offensive efficiency for the season, at 0.869 ppp while scoring about 69.7 ppg. On defense, UKs efficiency now stands at 0.735 ppp on about 60.1 ppg. UK 's NGE stands at 0.134 ppp. The respective SOS values today are 0.5496 for UK and 0.4661 for UAB . Based on this performance data for IU and UK to date, which includes seven regular season games for UK and eleven regular season games for UAB, Kentucky is a 5-point favorite, 69-64 in this game, based on the NGE Method. The model projects about 82 possessions for UK and 82 possessions for UAB . This analysis predicts a UK offensive efficiency of 0.841 ppp and a predicted defensive efficiency of 0.780 ppp, for a game NGE of 0.053 ppp. A game NGE greater than 0.10 ppp will be an impressive victory while a game NGE less than 0.00 ppp will be disappointing. The pre-game magic number is 68 points. First Half Summary:
In the early going, Kentucky “only” committed one turnover whereas in many games this season, this Kentucky team has committed 3 or more turnovers in the first segment of the basketball game. The Cats coupled this with 50% shooting to ease out to an early 2 point lead, 8-6 at the under 16 TV timeout. Coury scored 4 of the Cats first 8 points. After UAB hit a 3 pointer to take a 1 point lead, the Cats struck with three consecutive three pointers of their own to surge to an 8 point lead, 17-9, forcing a timeout by UAB with 13 to play. Out of the timeout, UAB scored 4 straight of their own to cut the lead to 17-13 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the third segment, UAB closed the gap to only 2 points before the Cats extended the lead back to 6 points, 21-15 at the under 8 TV timeout. The early pace is between 75 and 80 possessions, and UK's offensive efficiency is currently 0.955 ppp while the defense has been very effective thus far, holding UAB to only 0.600 ppp. The teams played on relatively even terms during a protracted 4 th segment and the Cats continue to lead, 33-26, as the teams go to the under 4 TV timeout with only 1:30 to play in the first half. The Cats had one final surge including a buzzer beater 3 pointer by Porter to take a 40-28 lead to the locker room. The first half pace was about 78 possessions for UAB and 70 possessions for the Cats as the UAB owned the offensive boards during the first half, gaining an additional 4 possessions in the half. Kentucky committed 7 turnovers in the first half, one for every 5.0 possessions. UAB committed 6 turnovers, one for each 6.5 possessions. Kentucky shot the ball poorly during the first half, 15-26 [57.7%] overall and a very strong 6-11 [54.5%] from long range. UAB shot the ball poorly for the half, 12-30 [40.0%] overall and 2-11 [18.2%] from beyond the arc. UAB scored its 28 points on 39 possessions for an overall efficiency of 0.718 ppp. Kentucky scored its 40 points on 35 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.143 ppp. In the first half, UK was 4-4 [100.0%] and UAB was 2-6 [33.3%] from the free throw line. Halftime Magic Number Check-Up: MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: Based on the actual pace of play in the first half, the Magic Number for this game changed to 75 Points. The first team to score its 75 th point will win today. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 35 points, while UAB needs 47 points. UAB scored its 75 th point on Vaden three pointer with about 1:12 to play in the game and UAB holding to a 77-74 lead. The teams played out the final 1:12 minutes with UAB taking the 79-76 victory. Second Half Summary: UAB came out for the second half shooting the ball well, and Kentucky committed 3 quick turnovers, allowing UAB to cut a 14 point lead to 6 points, 42-36. However, Kentucky stopped the charge, and managed to take a 7 point lead to the under 16 TV timeout, 45-38. In the second segment, the teams traded 3 pointers and UAB called a timeout following a turnover with 13:09 to play and the Cats continuing to hold the 7 point lead, 54-47. The pace of the game remains slow, probably in the low 70s range. Kentucky continues to produce at a very high efficiency, 1.149 ppp but the defensive efficiency has slipped in the second half to 0.922 ppp. Out of the timeout, the Cats score 8 quick points on two Patterson baskets on the inside, and Porter's third three pointer of the day, forcing another UAB timeout at 11:40 and the Cats holding their biggest lead, 14 points, 61-47. Following the timeout, UAB started using a 1-3-1 defense that seemed to baffled and slow down the Cat Offense. UAB outscored the Cats 10-3, to cut the lead back to 7 points, forcing a Kentucky Timeout. Out of the timeout, UAB converted two more Cat turnovers into 6 points to cut the lead to only 1 point, forcing another Cat Timeout, 64-63. UAB took a two point lead, and the teams exchanged baskets to the under 4 TV timeout with UAB holding to a 2 point lead, 70-68. With 1:12 to play, Vaden hit a three pointer to give UAB their largest lead of the game, 3 points, 77-74. Joe Crawford cut the lead to 1 point with about 40 seconds to play, but the Cats could draw no closer in the final seconds, and fell to defeat for the third straight game, 79-76. Kentucky won the boards for total rebounds, 28-23, but Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards, 6-8, -2. Kentucky converted its 6 second chance opportunities into 4 second chance points and UAB used its 8 second chance opportunities to post 9 second chance points. UAB scored its 79 points on 72 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.097 ppp. Kentucky scored its 76 points on 71 possessions for an overall efficiency of 1.070 ppp. UAB had an offensive efficiency of 1.094 ppp on its 64 first chance possessions and 1.125 ppp for its 8 second chance possessions. UK had an offensive efficiency of 1.108 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp on its 6 second chance possessions. UK grabbed a pathetic 28.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while UAB was able to convert a below average 26.7% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. UK shot perfectly from the free throw line, 8-8 for the game [100.0%]. However, UAB made a living from the line for this game, making 14 of their 23 attempts [60.9%]. UK's field goal shooting was above average for the game, shooting 28-49 [57.1%] overall, and UK shot very well from long range, making 12 of 25 attempts [48.0%]. UAB's field goal shooting overall was about 52.8% [28-53], and a good 9-22 [40.9%] from long range. Kentucky committed 18 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 3.9 possessions. UAB committed 9 turnovers, for a turnover rate of 1 for every 8.1 possessions. Post Game Analysis: Prior to the game, I predicted a Kentucky win, 69-64 [76-79] in a game with 83 and 83 possessions [71 and 72]. The forecast offensive efficiency was 0.841 ppp and the final offensive efficiency was 1.070 ppp. Defensively, the predicted efficiency was 0.780 ppp and the final defensive efficiency was 1.097 ppp. Based on the actual offensive and defensive performance tonight, UK graded at “A” and a rare “E” respectively as shown below: UK-UAB Grades Next Game: The Cats play next on Tuesday night, December 18, 2007 when make their second road trip of the season to Houston.
Submitted by Richard Cheeks
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