07-1 Preseason Forecast

As we have discussed on many occasions, the first hurdle that any team striving for greatness must clear is defined by strong, relentless dominance of two pre-season exhibition opponents. Anything less than dual performances that demonstrate a willingness to dominate a weaker foe is not sufficient to bode well for the future. This group of Wildcats have cleared that first hurdle. While clearing the first hurdle is no assurance that this team can or will clear them all, it is clear that unless the first hurdle is handled properly, the team cannot get through the race near the leaders.

Now that this first hurdle out of the gates has been cleared, it is time to start counting, keeping track of shooting percentages, turnover rates, offensive rebounding effectiveness, and pace of basketball games. First up, Virginia Military Institue from our City's namesake, Lexington, Virginia. Last season, VMI was one of if not the highest scoring team in the NCAA D1, averaging 91.3 ppg. They put these points on the board by playing a very fast pace on the season, averaging 99.8 possessions per game, for an offensive efficiency of 0.916 points per possession. On its face, that is an impressive offensive performance, given that Pitino's great teams in the 90s averaged 93 to 95 possessions per game, as did Joe B. Hall's great teams of the 70s.

However, there is more to the VMI story than their raw offensive efficiency numbers. First, on defense they allowed over 87 ppg, and over 98 possessions per game for a defensive efficiency of 0.888 ppp. Therefore, the season NGE for VMI was 0.029 ppp. In addition, the VMI schedule strength was only 0.4369, and the VMI final record was 14-15.

VMI provides a great object lesson about the requirements for success in basketball. They have posted a very strong offensive efficiency, a very fast pace, and averaged nearly 90 ppg, but ended with a losing record against a weak schedule. The reason; offense alone is not sufficient to win consistently. Great teams play great offense for sure, but great teams also play great defense at the same time, and VMI played NO DEFENSE!!!!!

The Cats, on the other hand, have started this emerging season with two strong performances against exhibition fodder. In the process, the Cats averaged 98.5 possessions per game while allowing their two opponents only 92.3 possessions per game, which translates into an offensive rebounding advantage of over 6 per game. The Cats averaged 102.5 ppg, for an offensive efficiency of 1.041 ppp and allowed only 62.5 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.678 ppp. Of course, no one should expect the Cats to duplicate these impressive numbers for the entire season against D1 competition, and if that did happen, these numbers are sufficient to propel any team to the NCAA championship. However, based on historical relationships between these pre-season performances and the ensuing season long performances, these preliminary numbers are encouraging for sure.

One estimate of this relationship can be measured by estimating the equivalent schedule strength that the two exhibition opponents provide, and estimating the adjusted NGE. Based on these opponents' 2008 season statistics, and the results of these two games, I have estimated that the schedule strength of these two opponents may be approximately 0.33. [The NCAA D1 average Strength of Schedule is 0.50]. Based on this estimate, the Cats' actual NGE for these two games, 0.363 ppp translates to an adjusted NGE of approximately 0.193 ppp. For the record, last year's Elite 8 participants had adjusted NGE values between 0.174 ppp and 0.279 ppp with an average of 0.225 ppp. Last year's Final Four participants had adjusted NGE values between 0.219 ppp and 0.279 ppp with an average of 0.248 ppp. Therefore, based on this manner of examination, this Cat team demonstrated in the pre-season games that it can legitimately compete at the Elite 8 level this year.

So, what about the game tonight against this year's version of VMI. We have not seen this team play a single game this season. They do not report any exhibition games at their official website, and the only data available for this team are last year's results, as summarized above. Based on these data for VMI, and the Cats' exhibition results, I expect a fast paced game in which the Cats' offense can operate with little resistance, and in which the Cats' defense will "slow down" the VMI's ability to score points despite the pace. The NGE analysis projects a pace of 98 possessions for the Cats and 96 possessions for VMI, thus a +2 offensive rebounding margin in the Cats' favor. The Cats will post 100 points, for an offensive efficiency of 1.020 ppp while holding VMI to only 72 points and a defensive efficiency of 0.750 ppp. The game NGE should be about 0.270 ppp. The Pre-game Magic Number is 87 points.

This is the Cats' last tuneup for their confrontation with the pre-season favorite to take home the hardware on the first Monday in April 2009, the North Carolina Tarheels.

The games begin tonight!!!!!

This is the Cats' last tuneup for their confrontation with the pre-season favorite to take home the hardware on the first Monday in April 2009, the North Carolina Tarheels.

The games begin tonight!!!!!

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie started Stevenson, Porter, Harris, Meeks, and Patterson four juniors and one sophomore for the third game in a row. VMI will start their season with their starting point guard out due to a hamstring injury, and will start a Freshman in his place.

The Cats open the season with back to back turnovers, while VMI converted on each for a 3-pointer and a pair of free throws following Patrick Patterson's first foul in less than 30 seconds. After a basket by Meeks and a VMI turnover, the Cats commit third turnover in the first 4 possessions. The turnover parade continued for the remainder of the first segment of this game, in which the Cats fell behind by 17-5, and VMI will have two free throws when play resumes. In that first segment, the Cats shot the ball seldom, hitting 2-4 from the floor, and they did not make a single 3 point attempt. Meeks hit 1 of 2 free throws to account for the 5 points they earned in 11 possessions. However, that segment saw 6 Cat turnovers. In contrast, VMI hit 4 of 5 from three point range in building this lead.

In the second segment, the Cats did not improve themselves, but continued sloppy play. They did trim the lead to 9 points, 23-14, but after VMI scored the next 10 points, the Cats fell behind by as many as 20 point, 35-15, and went to the bench trailing by 18, 35-17 at the under 12 TV timeout. IN the third segment, the Cats held ground for the first time tonight, and trimmed at one time 21 point lead to “only” 15 at the under 8 TV timeout.

In the 4 th segment of the game, the Cats reduced their turnovers for the segment to 2, the lowest for a segment tonight, and hit 4 of 6 shots to cut the lead down to 10 points, 50-40 at the under 4 TV timeout. Through about 16 minutes of play, the Cats have had 49 possessions to VMI's 44. The Cats hold a 9-4 advantage in offensive rebounds. However, the 15 first half turnovers eliminate any advantage that the Cats may have gained on the boards, reducing the offensive efficiency to only 0.815 ppp.

The teams played out the last segment on even terms, and the Cats trail at the half by 10 points, 57-47.

The pace of the first half was 122 possessions for the Cats and 104 possessions for VMI. In first half, UK had 61 possessions while VMI had 52. The Cats won the battle of the offensive boards 12-4, and won the second chance points 11-6. The Cats also won the total rebounding war, 28-15. The Cats grabbed 52.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while VMI grabbed only 20.0% of their misses.

VMI had an offensive efficiency of 1.063 ppp on its 46 first chance possessions and 1.500 ppp for its 4 second chance possessions. UK had 0.735 ppp on its 45 first chance possessions and 0.917 ppp on its 12 second chance possessions.

The free throw shooting in the first half was poor for the Cats, 58.8% [10-17], and VMI was outstanding from the line, making 15-17 [88.2%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 18-37 overall [48.6%] and only 1-8 [12.5%] from long range. For VMI, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was good, after a very hot start, hitting 17-37 [45.9%], but VMI lit it up from long range, hitting 8-15 [53.3%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 110th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Ky needs 63 points, while VMI needs 53 points. VMI scored its 110 th point on a free throw with about 0:46 minutes to play in the game and leading 110-103. VMI finished the game to secure a victory, 111-103

Second Half Summary:

These teams begin the second half in much the way the game started, and VMI reasserted its lead to 73-58 at the under 16 TV timeout When VMI scored the next 5 points out of the timeout, Kentucky calls a timeout with 14:54 to play in the game, down 20 points, 78-58. The Cats are definitely in trouble, and they continue to commit turnovers, play no defense, and generally playing in a helter-skelter mode, no offensive system is evident, and two Freshment, Liggins and Miller, reverted to one-on-one perimeter offense, committing turnovers prompting the timeout. Out of the timeout, the Cats exchanged baskets with VMI until the Cats scored 4 in a row to cut the lead to 16 points, 87-71 at the under 12 TV timeout.

Out of the TV timeout the Cats turned it on and clawed their way back into the ball game with a 24-7 run, to cut the lead to 6 points, 90-84, with 9:05 to play, prompting a VMI timeout. The Cats hold VMI scoreless on the next two possessions while scoring 2 more points, 13 th in a row, and following another miss, UK's Miller was fouled on a rebound leading to the under 8 TV timeout with 7:47 to play in the game, and VMI clinging to a 4 point lead, 90-86.

The Cats finally caught up at 95, and took their first lead of the night, 97-95. VMI quickly tied the score at 97, and the Cats took timeout with 4:06 to play and the score tied. Out of the timeout, the Cats missed, and VMI hit another 3 pointer to reclaim the lead, at 3 points, 100-97. The teams exchanged baskets twice, and the Cats called another timeout trailing by 3 points, 104-101, and 2:44 to play in the game, and with 46 seconds to play, VMI hit the magic number, and the fans began hitting the exit.

UK scored its 103 points in a total of 112 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.912 ppp. VMI scored its 111 points on a total of 103 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 1.077 ppp.

Kentucky dominated the boards for the game, 48-29, and won the battle of the offensive glass, 19-11. The Cats used their 19 offensive boards to produce 21 second chance points while VMI only could produce 13 second chance points with its 11 offensive boards. VMI had an offensive efficiency of 1.065 ppp on its 92 first chance possessions and 1.182 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had 0.882 ppp on its 93 first chance possessions and 1.105 ppp on its 19 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a strong 51.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds while VMI was able to convert 27.51% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit poorly from the free throw line in this game, making 22-33 [66.7%]. VMI made 27-35 [77.1%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 39-72 overall 54.2%] but only 3-16 from long range [18.8%]. For VMI, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a good, 21-41 [51.2%] but VMI shot the ball very well from long range hitting 14-31 [45.2%].

Next Game On Schedule:

Tuesday night, November 18, 2008, the Cats will travel to Chapel Hill, North Carolina to take on the #1 ranked Tarheels.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks