For the second year in a row, Coach Gillispie's Cats have suffered an inexplicable embarrassing loss at Rupp Arena at the hands of a team that resides in the bottom half of D1 college basketball. Last year, the thief was Gardner Webb, and last Friday, the culprit was Virginia Military Institute. What traditionally has been a sure win, a game for fine tuning the offense and defense in preparation for the games that really matter, turned into a loss..

Well, certainly games likes these count the same in the W-L columns as games against the very best that College basketball has to offer, and on Tuesday night the Cats will get another chance to get that elusive first W of the 2008-09 season. However, instead of lowly Virginia Military Institute, Tuesday's opponent is pre-season #1 North Carolina, in the Dean Dome. Not only has Kentucky not lost its first game of the season very often, it is extremely rare that a Kentucky team starts a season 0-2. Actually, it has only happened twice since Adolph Rupp arrived in Lexington in 1930. In 1975, the Cats started the 75-76 season 0-2, and lost 3 of their first 5 games in route to a 20-10 record in route to a NIT championship, running the table over their last 10 games. In 2000, the Cats started the 2000-01 season 0-2, 1-3, and 3-5 in route to a 24-10 record, an SEC regular season and tournament championship, and a sweet 16 appearance in the NCAA tournament.

So, 0-2 has happened twice in about 80 years, 1975 and 2000. Adolph Rupp never lost his first two games of a season ini his 42 years on the UK bench. Joe B. Hall did it once, and so did Tubby Smith. If Coach Gillispie is aware of this dubious accomplishment about to belong to him, I am sure he would prefer to remain in the ranks of Pitino and Rupp, instead of Tubby Smith, and the second time in 8 years, after 70 years with it only happening once, a quarter of a century earlier.

The Cats began this season with the high expectations. The schedule provided one tune up game before going to Chapel Hill for an appearance on one of the biggest stages that the NCAA basketball provides. UNC begins this season with the highest possible expectations, ranked as the #1 team in the land by nearly every pre-season poll. National TV, prime time in the feature game of ESPN's 2008-09 college basketball send off. The Cats squandered their opportunity to tune up for this big challenge. Instead of fine tuning the subtle aspects of an otherwise emerging powerful game, the Cats started the game against VMI as if the game itself would be a lay down. But VMI had other intentions for the night, and competed with a game plan designed to take the Cats out of its offense, and test the defense with repeated three point attempts, which fell, and fell, and fell to the point that the Cats trailed by as many as 23 points at one point in the second half.

The Cats did close that gap, and actually take a brief lead, 97-95, with about 5 minutes to play, but VMI finished the game with a 16-6 run to hand the Cats the loss. This begs the question: If the Cats can't defend VMI, and can't get into its offense against VMI, how can they possible compete with #1 UNC? The answer is that this first game does not bode well for the Cats' chances on Tuesday in Chapel Hill.

UNC has played one exhibition and one regular season games thus far, both wins. Based on these early game results, I expect a fast paced game with 95 to 100 posessions per team. The Cats' offense will struggle in a major way against the Tarheel defense, and the NGE analysis indicates an offensive efficiency of about 0.77 ppp for the Cats in this game, producing about 77 points. In contrast, the weak defense exhibited by the Cats agaisnst VMI coupled with UNC's strong offensive performances in their games indicate an efficiency of about 0.97 ppp for the Tarheels, producing about 93 points. The Pre-game Magic Number is 86 points.

There are no more opportunities to tune up the game. This is it, the big stage, under the bright lights. This should be the reason that a player chooses to play for a program like Kentucky or North Carolina.

The game begin tonight!!!!!

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie started Stevenson, Porter, Harris, Meeks, and Patterson four juniors and one sophomore for the fourth game in a row.

The Cats start cold and reckless again, 4 turnovers, and only 1 basket [no attempts by Patterson], while UNC hit shots and did not turn the ball over. At 13-2, with 16:10 to play in the first half, Coach Gillispie called a timeout, but out of the timeout, this onslaught simply resumed, to a 15-2 score at the under 16 TV timeout with about 14 ½ to play in the half. Six turnovers, no second chance points, and only 1 for 8 shooting with no free throws for the Cats in the first 5+ minutes, while UNC is 7-15, 4 second chance points, and zero turnovers.

This is the beginning of a poleaxing.

The blow-out continues to the end of the second segment, 25-6 with 11:30 to play, at which time Kentucky burned its second timeout of the game. Following this second time out, the Cats began a modest comeback, cutting the 19 point lead to 11 points on one occasion, 26-15, with one possession to take the lead back into single digits, but the Tarheels responded with a five point run of their own, and the lead settled at 14 points, 31-17 at the under 8 TV timeout. After committing 10 turnovers in the first 8 minutes, the Cats only committed one turnover in the last 4 minute segment. The pace of this game is 90 to 100 possessions for the game.

The Cats were unable to regain the momentum after the timeout, and were outscored 7-4, as UNC eased the lead back to 17 points, 38-21 at the under 4 TV timeout. The Cats have scored their 21 points on 38 possessions, 0.553 ppp while UNC has scored its 38 points on 39 possessions, 0.974 ppp. The current NGE, -0.421 ppp qualifies as a poleaxing, as it exceeds 0.4 ppp. Turnovers are now 15-5, and the Tarheels hold an advantage in offensive glass, 7-5, and second chance points 11-2. The teams finished the last 3 ½ minutes on more or less even terms, 41-25 at the half. For the second time in as many games this season, the Cats have trailed by double digits at the half.

The pace of the first half was 88 possessions for the Cats and 94 possessions for UNC. In first half, UK had 44 possessions while UNC had 47. The UNC won the battle of the offensive boards 9-5, and won the second chance points 11-2. The Cats battled even with the Tarheels on total rebounds, 19-19. The Cats grabbed 33.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while UNC grabbed 39.1% of their misses.

UNC had an offensive efficiency of 0.789 ppp on its 38 first chance possessions and 1.222 ppp for its 9 second chance possessions. UK had 0.590 ppp on its 39 first chance possessions and 0.400 ppp on its 5 second chance possessions.

The free throw shooting in the first half was perfect for the Cats, 100.0% [6-6], and UNC was poor from the line, making 5-10 [50.0%]. Field goal shooting for UK was 9-24 overall [37.5%] and only 1-8 [12.5%] from long range. For UNC, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was low, 12-29 [41.4%], but UNC lit it up from long range, hitting 4-7 [57.1%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 75 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Ky needs 61 points, while UNC needs 45 points. UNC scored its 75 th point on basket with about 1:45 minutes to play in the game and leading 75-58. UNC finished the game to secure a victory, 77-58

Second Half Summary:

The Cats opened the second half with a fixed play freeing Meeks for a 3 point shot which he made, cutting the lead back to 13 points. The teams exchanged baskets for the next 4 minutes, and the teams finished the first segment with UNC leading 45-31 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the next segment, UNC quickly re-established their largest lead of the game, 21 points, 52-31 but the Cats scratched back again, cutting the lead back to 16 points at the under 12 TV timeout with the Tarheels leading 55-39. In the third segment, the teams again traded baskets until UNC ended the segment with a three pointer, to take the lead to 18 points, 64-46 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the fourth segment of the second half, and the Cats traded points, but not many, and the Tarheels lead stands at 17 points, 68-51 at the under 4 TV timeout. The teams played out the final 4 minutes and UNC secured the victory, their 5 th straight over Kentucky, 77-58.

UK scored its 58 points in a total of 82 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.707 ppp. UNC scored its 77 points on a total of 89 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.865 ppp.

Kentucky managed a slim 1 rebound advantage, 36-35, but UNC owned the offensive glass, 16-8, that produced a 17 point advantage on second chance points, 21-4. UNC had an offensive efficiency of 0.767 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 1.313 ppp for its 16 second chance possessions. UK had 0.730 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 0.500 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a weak 29.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while UNC was able to convert a strong 36.4% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 15-19 [78.9%]. UNC made 12-18 [66.7%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 20-45 overall [44.4%] but only 3-12 from long range [25.0%]. For UNC, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak, 22-57 [38.6%] but UNC shot the ball very well from long range hitting 7-13 [53.8%].

Next Game On Schedule:

Saturday night, November 22, 2008, the Cats will host Delaware State at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks