07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

Cat Limp Home To Rupp 0-2
Only Third Time Since Rupp Came to UK
Cats Are Search For Their Soul

For only the third time since Adolph Rupp arrived at the University of Kentucky in 1930, the UK Basketball team has opened a season losing their first two games. In Rupp's 43 years, it never happened. Joe Hall's 1975-76 team started 0-2, staggered to a 10-10 record before finding their soul and reeling off 10 straight wins to end the season by winning the NIT. That strong finish after a rocky start propelled the program back into the thick of the NCAA in the 1977 and 1978 seasons.

The second 0-2 start occurred a mere 8 years ago on Tubby Smith's watch, and that team staggered to a 3-5 start before finding its identity, and turning the season around and finishing 24-10, 12-4 in the SEC as Co-Champions and SEC Tournament Champions, ranked 9th in the AP and 8th in the USA today poll.

The Cats began the 08-09 season riding the crest of high expectations fueled by a significant transformation of the roster since the end of last season. The 0-2 start has been more than a disappointment, it has been cause for much hand wringing and examination by fans everywhere with respect to every aspect of Coach Gillispie's coaching. Fans are debating who is starting, who is not. Fans are debating who is shooting, who is not. Fans are debating who is playing, and who is not. But, the big question on the minds of Big Blue Fans everywhere on November 21, 2008 is whether this current group of Wildcats will, like their dubious predecessors, find their basketball souls, find their basketball identities, and finish the 2008-09 season in a manner that will convert this 0-2 start into just another footnote of UK Basketball history and lore.

The schedule provides a two game set at Rupp Arena on Saturday and Monday to start this process prior to traveling west for the Las Vegas tournament in which the level of competition will have a national flavor. On Saturday, the Cats will entertain Delaware State, and on Monday the guest will be Longwood.

In each of these losses, the Cats committed 9 and 10 turnovers in the first 8 minutes of play, while falling behind by staggering amounts. Against VMI, the Cats trailed 35-17, and while the Cats were able to close that gap, and actually take a very brief 2 point lead with about 5 minutes to play, the big hole was really too much for this young team to overcome. Against UNC, the Cats trailed 25-6, and while the CAts and Heels played even for the following 32 minutes, the game was really over before the under 12 TV timeout of the first half, and UNC was completely within its comfort zone.

Starts such as these are a recipe for disaster in big time college basketball for a host of reasons, and the Cats must find the will to come out of the locker room prepared and ready to engage the opponent and establish superiority from the opening tip. To date, this group of Cats has not displayed that ability.

Delaware State has played 3 regular season games this week, a 18 point loss to Lehigh on Monday, a 20 point loss to Dayton on Wednesday, and a 28 point loss to Ohio State on Thursday, all on the road. Now, less than 48 hours after their Columber appearance, they will play the Cats at Rupp on Saturday at noon. In those losses, DWU has averaged only 66 possessions while their three opponents have average 71.5 possessions per game. The DSU offensive efficiency has been 0.714 ppp and their defensive efficiency has bene 0.970 ppp for a raw NGE of –0.256 ppp.

The Cats' 0-2 start has not produced much better numbers in this early season match up of winless teams. The Cats have averaged 98 possessions per game and the Cat opponents have averaged 96 possessions. The Cats' offensive efficiency is 0.821 ppp and their defensive efficiency is 0.977 ppp, for a raw NGE of –0.155 ppp.

One of these teams will break into the win column on Saturday, and the other will move to their next game still winless. During my review of the UK records, no UK basketball team has ever begun a season 0-3, at least not since 1930 when Coach Rupp arrived. In this match up, the NGE analysis suggests a game that is not as fast as the first two games that UK has played, but at a faster pace than DSU has played thus far, with about 80 to 85 total possessions for the game. The Cats should win this one, 80-66, with an offensive efficiency of 0.941 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.815 ppp. The pre-game Magic Number for this game is 74 points.

First Half Summary:

For the fifth time this season, Coach Gillispie starts Stevenson, Porter, Harris, Meeks, and Patterson, four juniors and one sophomore. He does this in the face of growing public commentary and criticism that at least two of the starting five should sit for freshmen Liggins and Miller. We will watch for how soon Liggins and Miller enter this game, and how many total minutes Porter and Harris get today.

The Cats start this game the way they should start games, hitting 4 of their first 5 shots, and only one turnover in the first 3 minutes and 19 seconds, racing out to a 10-2 lead prompting a quick timeout by Delaware State. However, in the early going, Patterson has had only two touches, one resulted in a missed shot, and the other was a feed to the post that was delivered too late for Patterson to convert, and he passed it back to the perimeter. In addition, the Cats committed 2 turnovers in the first 4 minutes of the game. The Pace is about 70 possessions, and the turnover rate is about 20.

At the 15 minute mark, Miller moved to the scorers table following Porter's second foul, but before he could enter the game, Porter picked up #3. Shortly thereafter, Stewart replaced Stevenson with about 14 minutes to play. In the second segment, the Cats continued to make too many turnovers, 2 in that segment, 2 for the game through 8 minutes, a pace for another 20 turnover performance. However, the Cats continued to shoot the ball well, and extended their early lead from 8 to 12 points, 19-7 at the under 12 TV timeout. In the third segment, the Cats cut the number of turnovers down to 1 for the segment for the first time today, 5 for the game. The pace remains a 70 possession game, and the Cats continue to shoot the ball very well, 9-13 overall, and Meeks, and the Cats, are 3-3 from three point range. There has only been one offensive rebound, by the Cats, and it produced 2 second chance points. In the fourth segment, DSU cut the Cats' lead to 13 points, 30-17, before Miller made a basket and was fouled leading into the under 4 TV timeout, and the Cats leading by 15 points, 32-17 with 3:03 to play in the first half. The pace has quickened slightly to about 77 possessions for the Cats and 70 for the Hornets. The Cats committed 2 more turnovers in the fourth segment, 7 for the game. The teams finish out the first half, with the Cats holding a commanding 14 point lead, 37-23.

The pace of the first half was 74 possessions for the Cats and 70 possessions for DSU. In first half, UK had 37 possessions while DSU had 35. The Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards 3-1, and won the second chance points 5-0. The Cats won the total rebound battle 13-11. The Cats grabbed only 23.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds while DSU grabbed an anemic 9.1% of their misses.

DSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.676 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 0.000 ppp for its 1 second chance possession. UK had 0.941 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 1.667 ppp on its 3 second chance possessions.

The free throw shooting in the first half was nearly perfect for the Cats, 90.9% [10-11], and DSU was perfect from the line, making 6-6 [100.0%]. After a very hot start, the Cats' shooting fell off over the last 10 minutes of the first half, and field goal shooting for UK was 12-25 overall [48.0%] and 3-5 [60.0%] from long range after a 3-3 start. For DSU, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was strong, 7-12 [58.3%], but DSU shot the ball poorly from long range, hitting 1-7 [14.3%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 68 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 31 points, while DSU needs 45 points. The Cats scored its 68 th point on Liggins 3 pointer with about 0:18 to play in the game and leading 69-41. The Cats finished the game to secure a victory, 71-42

Second Half Summary:

The Cats opened the second half much the way they have started 4 of the 5 previous halves, with turnovers galore and poor shooting. DSU cut the lead to 11 points, 40-29 at the under 16 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, the Cats scored 4 straight points and DSU called their second timeout, trailing by 15 points, 44-29 with 13:21 to play. The Cats continued this run by scoring 5 more unanswered points in this segment to extend the lead to 49-29 at the under 12 TV timeout. The pace continues at in the low 70s range for this game. Over the next 8 minutes, the Cats continued to assert their superior talent, and lead 63-35 at the under 4 TV timeout. The pace is 70 possessions, and the Cats have reduced their turnover rate in the second half. The Cats finished the game with a 71-42 win.

UK scored its 71 points in a total of 73 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.973 ppp. DSU scored its 42 points on a total of 73 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.575 ppp.

Kentucky lost a slim 1 rebound margin, 30-31, and could only battle DSU on even terms on the offensive glass, 8-8. However, the Cats used their offensive rebounds much more effectively than DSU, ending with a 9-1 advantage on second chance points. DSU had an offensive efficiency of 0.631 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 0.125 ppp for its 8 second chance possessions. UK had 0.954 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 1.125 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a weak 25.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while DSU was able to convert a weak 26.7% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit well from the free throw line in this game, making 12-14 [85.7%]. DSU made 15-18 [83.3%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 25-55 overall [45.5%] but an impressive 9-17 from long range [52.9%]. For DSU, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak, 12-33 [36.4%] but DSU shot the ball even more poorly from long range hitting 1-9 [11.1%].

Next Game On Schedule:

Monday night, November 24, 2008, the Cats will host Longwood at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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