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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

07

Cats Begin Building Upon Some Youthful Foundations

On Saturday afternoon, the Kentucky Wildcats learned a little about their identity in their search for their soul. They learned that they can play well enough as a team to win even when Patrick Patterson is having a rare off day. They learned that Freshman Darius Miller can play some lead guard, and shoot from outside. There may be other lessons derived from the game, but these two provide a sound foundation for continuing improvement of this team.

In this game, the Cats reduced the number of turnovers from an average of 26 ½ per game in the first two games, to 12. Part of this reduction occurs because of better play by the entire team, and part due to the reduced defensive pressure by a weak opponent, and a pace that was slower than last season's average. While this reduction in turnovers is definitely a step in the right direction, room for improvement remains.

The turnover rate for the 2007-08 season was the worst ever posted by a Kentucky team since turnover statistics have been routinely reported, one turnover for each 4.84 possessions. As you can see, the turnover rate in each of the first two games was worse than this worst season long performance. Last season's “low water” mark for turnovers was at Auburn, when the Cats committed 24 turnovers in 69 possessions, one turnover for each 2.88 possessions. So, the UNC performance this year was not that bad. Last year, the Cats played seven games with a better turnover rate than they had in the Delaware State game, including their home court losses to Gardner Webb and San Diego.

The Cats' rebounding in this game was disappointing for the second game in a row after owning the boards against the smaller outside oriented VMI. After controlling the offensive glass against VMI, the Cats failed in this area against UNC and had hoped to rebound, so to speak, against Delaware State. Not so, as Delaware State out rebounded the Cats by 1, and each team got the same number of offensive rebounds.

Offensive Rebounding Rate By Game

The team defense was very strong in this game, limiting Delaware State to 42 points on 73 possessions. This is one of the few bright spots emerging from this team. Consider these defensive efficiency results this season.

Defensive Efficiency By Game

The defensive effort against VMI was worse than pitiful, and the effort in the UNC game was commendable. The effort against a very weak Delaware State was impressive.

Unfortunately, the team has not shown such signs of improvement at the offensive end of the court.

The offense against VMI, a team that has played no defense against any opponent, was less than impressive, and the offense against UNC, one of the great teams of this season was poor. However, the overall offense against DSU was good, but it was much better for the first 33 minutes of the game, 1.035 ppp. The Cats coasted to the finish line offensively instead of keeping the pedal to the metal, and only scored 12 points on their last 16 possessions over the last 7 minutes.

Next up, Longwood on Monday night at Rupp Arena.

Longwood has played 4 regular season games, winning twice. Longwood beat Gardner Webb by 1 point, and Maryland Eastern Shore by 12 points. Longwoods loses came at the hands of Norfolk State by 7 points and West Virginia by 32 points, 86-54. In those games, LONGWOOD has averaged only 80.5 possessions while their three opponents have average 84.4 possessions per game. The LONGWOOD offensive efficiency has been 0.842 ppp and their defensive efficiency has bene 0.880 ppp for a raw NGE of
–0.038 ppp.

The Cats' 1-2 start has not produced much better numbers in this early season match up The Cats have averaged 90 possessions per game and the Cat opponents have averaged 88.5 possessions. The Cats' offensive efficiency is 0.859 ppp and their defensive efficiency is 0.866 ppp, for a raw NGE of –0.007 ppp.

In this match up, the NGE analysis suggests a game that is not as fast as the first two games that UK has played, but at a faster pace than LONGWOOD has played thus far, with about 85 to 90 total possessions for the game. The Cats should win this one, 86-62, with an offensive efficiency of 0.989 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.729 ppp. The pre-game Magic Number for this game is 75 points.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie starts Stevenson, Porter, Miller, Meeks, and Patterson, three juniors, one sophomore, and one freshman. Darius Miller gets his first collegiate start, taking the place formerly held by Harris. Most observers thought Miller's play on Saturday was worthy, and he is being rewarded for his effort and performance.

The Cats begin this game red hot from the floor, making 5 of their first 7 shots as they raced out to a quick double digit lead, 15-5, at the under 16 TV timeout. The early pace of this game is in the upper 80s to low 90s range. The only dark note of this opening segment is that the Cats committed 2 turnovers on their first 10 possessions. In the second segment, the Cats continued their assault by outscoring Longwood 12-2, to take a commanding 20 point lead, 27-7 at the under 12 TV timeout. The pace continues in the low 90s range, and the Cats continue the outstanding shooting, and committed no turnovers in the segment. This may be the first turnover free game segment in a first half this season.

In the third segment, the Cats' shooting came back toward earth, and the Cats committed 3 turnovers, reversing the strong early play in both categories. Longwood used three straight 3's to cut the lead to 17 points, 33-16 at the under 8 TV timeout. Out of the timeout, Porter's three pointer was matched by Longwood's fourth consecutive 3, prompting a quick timeout by Coach Gillispie, with the score 36-21. Over the remainder of the 4 th segment of the game, the Cats outscored Longwood 4-3, for a 40-24 lead at the under 4 TV timeout. The pace of this game continues in the mid 80s for Longwood and upper 90s for the Cats. The Cats close the first half with an 11-0 run in the final segment to take a 27 point lead at the half, 51-24.

The pace of the first half was 96 possessions for the Cats and 84 possessions for LONGWOOD. In first half, UK had 48 possessions while LONGWOOD had 42. The Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards 9-3, and won the second chance points 13-0. The Cats won the total rebound battle 28-14. The Cats grabbed a strong 42.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LONGWOOD grabbed an anemic 13.6% of their misses.

LONGWOOD had an offensive efficiency of 0.615 ppp on its 39 first chance possessions and 0.000 ppp for its 3 second chance possession. UK had 1.025 ppp on its 40 first chance possessions and 1.250 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions.

The free throw shooting in the first half was very strong for the Cats, 80.0% [12-15], and LONGWOOD did not reach the line during the first half. After a very hot start, the Cats' shooting fell off over the last 12 minutes of the first half, and field goal shooting for UK was 18-36 overall [50.0%] but only 3-12 [25.0%] from long range. For LONGWOOD, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was very poor, 3-15 [20.0%], but LONGWOOD shot the ball well from long range, hitting 6-16 [37.5%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 89 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 38 points, while LONGWOOD needs 65 points. The Cats scored its 89 th point on a three pointer by Krebs with 1:25 to play and the Cats with about m:ss to play in the game and leading 89-53. The Cats finished the game to secure a victory, 91-57.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats came out for the second half with a good shooting eye, but three quick turnovers allow Longwood to play even with the Cats during the first segment of the second half. The Cats take a 59-32 lead to the bench at the under 16 TV timeout. Shortly after the timeout, Patterson turned an ankle after making a quick inside basket. In the second segment, the Cats again did not miss a shot, but committed 3 more turnovers, as they extended the lead to 35 points, 72-37 at the under 12 TV timeout. The Cats simply play out this poleaxing and finish off Longwood 91-57. The Cats led this game by as many as 41 points, and 79-40 at the under 8 TV timeout but allowed sloppy play down the stretch and were outscored 12-17 over the last 8 minutes of the game.

UK scored its 91 points in a total of 96 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.948 ppp. LONGWOOD scored its 57 points on a total of 95 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.600 ppp.

Kentucky won a sizeable total offensive rebounding edge, 50-33, but their efforts only provided a slim 1 rebound margin, 13-12, on the offensive glass. However, the Cats used their offensive rebounds much more effectively than LONGWOOD, ending with a 18-3 advantage on second chance points. LONGWOOD had an offensive efficiency of 0.651ppp on its 83 first chance possessions and 0.250 ppp for its 12 second chance possessions. UK had 0.880 ppp on its 83 first chance possessions and 1.385 ppp on its 13 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a good 38.2% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LONGWOOD was able to convert a weak 24.5% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit a little below average from the free throw line in this game, making 18-26 [69.2%]. LONGWOOD made 9-15 [60.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 34-55 overall [52.3%] but a disappointing 5-22 from long range [22.7%]. For LONGWOOD, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak, 12-40 [30.0%] but LONGWOOD shot the ball reasonably well from long range hitting 8-26 [30.8%].

Next Game On Schedule:

Friday night, November 28, 2008, the Cats will play Kansas State in Las Vegas.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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