07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

Cats Take Their Show On The Road To Vegas
Will Submit Their Recent Progress To Trial By Fire

Last Saturday and Monday, the Cats pulled their record even, 2-2, with back to back wins over Delaware State and Longwood as part of the Las Vegas holiday tournament. Tonight, the Cats submit their recent gains to a true test when they take on Kansas State in Las Vegas, as this tournament continues. The winner will play the winner of the other semi-final game, either West Virginia or Iowa on Saturday night, adn the losers will also meet on Saturday evening. Kansas State and either of the other semi-finalists will offer worthy tests of this young, developing Kentucky team.

The apparent progress that the Cats made on Saturday by only committing 12 turnovers agaisnt Delaware State somewhat evaporated before all eyes on Monday when the Cats committed one turnover for every 5 possessions in the game. Kansas State enters this game unbeaten, with 4 wins against D1 opposition. In those 4 games, K-State has averaged over 91 possessions per game while allowing opponents slightly less than 89 possessions. K-State has averaged 84 points per game which is an offensive efficiency of 0.921 ppp. On the defensive end, K-State has allowed less than 61 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.685 ppp. K-State averages only 13 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into 18 turnovers per game. On the glass, K-State secures over 45% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab about 36% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average almost 91 possessions per game and their opponents average 90 possessions. The Cats average about 81 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.890 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 72 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.797 ppp. The Cats average 21 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 17 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 37% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get about 29% of their misses.

The Kentucky Wildcats have played a slightly more difficult schedule over the first 4 games than the K-State Wildcats, and the NGE analysis indicates a game with about 90 possessions, and a Kentucky loss by 4 points, 72-76 to K-State. The pre-game magic number is 75 points.

First Half Summary:

After flirting with Darius Miller in the starting lineup in the last game, Coach Gillispie decides to return to the starters he had used for the first 5 games of the year, Stevenson, Porter, Harris, Meeks, and Patterson, four juniors, and one sophomore.

The Cats open this game much the way they opened the first 2 games, committing 5 turnovers in the first 4 minutes, and only getting 2 shots from the floor during the entire segment. K-State on the other hand, did not commit a single turnover, and but for some erratic shooting [3-7], the lead would be bigger than the 5 point lead at 10-5 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, K-State continued to stretch the lead to 9 points, 16-7, but the Cats began to cut into that lead, and scored the next 7 points, cutting the lead to 2 points, 16-14, prompting a K-State timeout with 12 ½ to play. The early pace is about 85 possessions.

In the third segment, the Cats continued their run, moving into a lead of 23-16 before Kansas State his a three pointer following 2 misses and 2 offensive rebounds to stop the Kentucky run at 16 points, and setting the score at the under 8 TV timeout at 23-19, Kentucky. The pace continues in the upper 80s to low 90s range. There are two primary issues troubling the Cats. K-State has a 5-1 advantage on offensive rebounds, and the Cats have committed 10 turnovers to K-State's 3. In the fourth segment, the Cats started a new run, scoring 5 straight points, prompting the second K-State timeout with 4:26 to play in the first half, 28-19. The Cats' turnover parade continued, a total of 13 through 16 minutes of play, and K-State grabbed their 6 th offensive rebound. However, K-State matched Kentucky's 3 turnovers in the segment. Field goal shooting is a tale of two teams. The Cats are hitting 11-17 [64.7%] while KSU is only 7-27 [25.9%].

The Cats finished the first half outscoring K-State 9-1 in the final segment to take a 14 point lead, 37-23, to the locker room at the half.

The pace of the first half was 80 possessions for the Cats and 90 possessions for KANSAS STATE. In first half, UK had 40 possessions while KANSAS STATE had 45. The Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards 1-7, and lost the second chance points 2-4. The Cats won the total rebound battle 20-13. The Cats grabbed an anemic 14.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while KANSAS STATE grabbed an weak 26.9% of their misses.

KANSAS STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.500 ppp on its 38 first chance possessions and 0.571 ppp for its 7 second chance possession. UK had 0.897 ppp on its 39 first chance possessions and 2.000 ppp on its only second chance possession.

The free throw shooting in the first half was very strong for the Cats, 75.0% [6-8], and KANSAS STATE also hit 6-8 [75.0%] from the line during the first half. The Cats shot the ball well throughout the first half, and field goal shooting for UK was 13-19 overall [68.4%] and an outstanding 5-6 [83.3%] from long range. For KANSAS STATE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was very poor, 4-20 [20.0%], and KANSAS STATE shot the ball poorly from long range, hitting 3-12 [25.0%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 68 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 31 points, while KANSAS STATE needs 45 points. The Cats scored its 68 th point free throws by Patterson with 2:01 to play and the Cats leading 68-63. The Cats finished the game to secure a victory, 74-72.

Second Half Summary:

The second half started much the way the game started, with a quick 8-2 run by K-State to cut the 14 point half time lead to 8 points, 39-31. However, the Cats stopped the run, and maintained the lead between 8 and 12 points for the remainder of the first segment of the second half, with a score of 47-37 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, the Cats maintain their outstanding defensive pressure, and extend their lead to a game high 17 points, 54-37, prompting another K-State timeout with 12:26 to play in the game.

However, the turnover parade finally called its debt due when back to back turnovers resulted in back to back 3 pointers, to cut the one time 17 point lead to 7 points, 56-49, prompting a Kentucky timeout with about 10 ½ to play. K-State's comeback continued out of the timeout, and they trimmed the lead to a mere 3 points, 60-57. However, the Cats managed to place a little more separation between the teams, 64-59, with free throws coming after the under 4 TV timeout. However, despite excellent shooting, 31 turnovers, 17 in the first half and 14 in the second half, allowed K-State to stay in the game, and make a legitimate run over the last 10 minutes to completely erase a 17 point Kentucky lead.

UK scored its 74 points in a total of 83 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.892 ppp. KANSAS STATE scored its 72 points on a total of 93 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.774 ppp.

Kentucky won a total offensive rebounding edge, 32-26. However, K-State owned the offensive glass with a 16-3 advantage on offensive rebounds, producing much more effectively than KANSAS STATE, ending with a 16-2 advantage on second chance points. KANSAS STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.727 ppp on its 77 first chance possessions and 1.000 ppp for its 16 second chance possessions. UK had 0.911 ppp on its 80 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp on its 3 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a poor 23.1% of its misses as offensive rebounds while KANSAS STATE was able to convert a strong 35.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit about average from the free throw line in this game, making 25-35 [71.4%]. KANSAS STATE made 17-21 [81.0%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 22-34 overall [64.7%] including 5-8 from long range [62.5%]. For KANSAS STATE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak, 17-48 [35.4%] but KANSAS STATE shot the ball reasonably well from long range hitting 7-19 [36.8%].

Next Game On Schedule:

Saturday night, November 29, 2008, the Cats will play West Virginia in Las Vegas.Championship game.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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