07-1 Preseason Forecast

BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

Cats Advance to Vegas Championship Game
Despite 31 Turnovers and Poor Rebounding
West Virginia Mountaineers Are Next Up For Cats

The Kentucky Wildcats managed to advance to the Championship game of the Vegas pre-season tournament last night by defeating a good Kansas State team 74-72 in a game that decries the conventional wisdom about how to win at the major college level. The Cats committed 31 turnovers [1 for every 2.6 possessions] and only forced 16 turnovers in return from the Manhattan, Kansas Wildcats [1 for every 5.9 possessions]. In addition, the UK Cats did not compete with the K-State brand of Wildcats on the boards, losing the all-important battle of the offensive glass 16 [30.8% of KSU misses] to 3 [15.0% of UK misses].

The conventional wisdom about basketball is that teams that teams that turn the ball over on more than about 1/5 of their possessions and do not get at least 30% of their own misses as offensive rebounds can't, and don't win basketball games against legitimate D1 competition. However, last night's win is the exception that proves the rule. So, how did the UK Cats manage to leave this game with the “W”? The principal answer to this conundrum is that the UK Cats shot the ball extremely well, 22-32 overall [68.8%] and 5-8 [62.5%] from outside the arc. The Cats also managed to get 35 free throws, 27 in the critical second half, converting a solid 71.4% of their attempts.

Frankly, this strong shooting performance in an of itself would not be sufficient to overcome a 15 turnover-13 offensive rebounding deficits. Kansas State could not do what the Cats excelled at, shooting. For the game, K-State only hit 24-66 [36.4%] overall and a fair 7-21 [33.3%] from long range. K-State did convert on their free throw opportunities at an impressive 17-21 [81.0%] rate.

The apparent progress that the Cats made last Saturday by only committing 12 turnovers against Delaware State was obviously illusory, and the return to 20 or more turnovers against Longwood was more characteristic of this team. In addition, the offensive rebounding woes that have been exposed in 4 of the first 5 games seems to be real.

So, the bottom line on this bizarre performance is that the UK Cats posted an offensive efficiency for the game of 0.925 ppp on its 80 possessions, and held KSU to only 0.783 ppp on their 92 possessions. The game NGE was an impressive 0.142 ppp despite the turnovers and the offensive rebounding woes. So there may be some silver lining the obviously dark cloud, e.g. another very strong defensive effort and a gutsy determination to win.

In the other semi-final game last night, West Virginia dismantled an undefeated Iowa team 87-68. The Mountaineers scored their 87 points on 83 possessions, for an offensive efficiency of 1.05 ppp while they limited Iowa to 68 points on 73 possessions, 0.932 ppp for their defensive efficiency. This single game provides an interesting contrast for the West Virginia match up. Can the Kentucky defense slow down the high flying WVU offense, and can the Kentucky offense take advantage of what appears to be a relatively soft WVU defense.

WEST VIRGINIA enters this game unbeaten, with 4 wins against D1 opposition. In those 4 games, WEST VIRGINIA has averaged over 84 possessions per game while allowing opponents only 76 possessions. WEST VIRGINIA has averaged 85 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 1.02 ppp. On the defensive end, WEST VIRGINIA has allowed less than 53 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.693 ppp. WEST VIRGINIA averages only 13 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into over 22 turnovers per game. On the glass, WEST VIRGINIA secures over 44% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab about 22% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average almost 89 possessions per game and their opponents average 91 possessions. The Cats average about 79 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.887 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 72 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.793 ppp. The Cats average 23 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 17 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 34% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get about 30% of their misses.

The Kentucky Wildcats have played a more difficult schedule over the first 4 to 5 games than the WEST VIRGINIA Wildcats, and the NGE analysis indicates a game with about 85 possessions and a Kentucky loss by 7 points, 69-76 to WEST VIRGINIA. The pre-game magic number is 74 points.

First Half Summary:

After flirting with Darius Miller in the starting lineup two games ago, Coach Gillispie decides to stay with the starters he had used for the first 5 games of the year, and last night against Kansas State: Stevenson, Porter, Harris, Meeks, and Patterson, four juniors, and one sophomore. Following the game against Kansas State last night, Coach Gillispie said that Liggins did not play in the second half because when Coach called his number, he declined the opportunity to go into the game. As a fan, it is difficult to understand such a situation, and tonight we will be watching that situation with respect to playing time for Liggins.

The Cats start again with a rash of 4 turnovers in their first 9 possessions, and that coupled with 1 for 4 shooting early produced another hole, this time 11-4 at the under 16 TV timeout. The early pace is in the 90s range, and the Cats do not have red hot shooting tonight to mask over the sins of poor ball handling, and poor rebounding. In the second segment, the teams traded baskets and free throws to a 6 point WVU lead, 16-10 at the under 12 TV timeout. The play stoppage leading to this timeout occurred on Patrick Patterson's second foul of the game, and just as last night. Patterson will go to the bench for the last 12 minutes of the first half, with his team down 6 points.

Liggins entered the game for Porter with about 11 minutes to play. For the remainder of the third segment, the Cats chipped away at the lead, cutting it to 3 points on one occasion, and going to the bench down 4, with free throws coming, at the under 8 TV timeout. Through 12 minutes of play, the Cats have committed 7 turnovers, 4 of them in the first 4 minutes. The Cats are also down on the offensive glass early, 4-2.

In the fourth segment, the Cats got bit by the turnover bug again, committing 3 more, for a total of 10 for the game in the first 16 minutes, and falling by down by 7 again, matching WVU's largest lead of the game, 23-16 at the under 4 TV timeout. Turnovers, turnover, turnovers. The Cats also missed the front end of the one and one twice during the segment. In the final segment, WVU does all the scoring, and takes their first 10 point lead, 26-16, to the locker room.

The pace of the first half was 76 possessions for the Cats and 78 possessions for WEST VIRGINIA. In first half, UK had 38 possessions while WEST VIRGINIA had 39. The Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards 4-5, and lost the second chance points 2-3. The Cats won the total rebound battle 19-18. The Cats grabbed a poor 23.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while WEST VIRGINIA grabbed an weak 25.0% of their misses.

WEST VIRGINIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.676 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 0.600 ppp for its 5 second chance possession. UK had 0.412 ppp on its 34 first chance possessions and 0.500 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions.

The free throw shooting in the first half was very strong for the Cats, 75.0% [6-8], but both of the misses were the front ends of one and one opportunities. WEST VIRGINIA also hit 4-6 [66.7%] from the line during the first half. The Cats shot the ball very poorly throughout the first half, and field goal shooting for UK was 5-20 overall [25.0%] and 0-3 [0.0%] from long range. For WEST VIRGINIA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was very poor, 8-21 [38.1%], and WEST VIRGINIA shot the ball poorly from long range, hitting 2-9 [22.2%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 48 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 32 points, while WEST VIRGINIA needs 22 points. The Wildcats scored its 48 th point on free throws by Meeks with 2:10 to play and Kentucky leading 48-42. Kentucky finished the game to secure a victory, 54-43.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats start the second half trading baskets and turnovers with the Mountaineers. The lead remains 10 points, 30-20 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment of the second half, the Cats mounted a mini-run to cut the one time 12 point lead to 6 points, 32-26, prompting a WVU timeout with 12:06 to play in the game. At the under 12 TV timeout the Cats stand 8 down, 34-26. The Cats have committed 18 turnovers in 28 minutes, and have only forced 9 WVU turnovers. WVU holds a 3 rebound advantage, 8-5, on the offensive glass, and a 7-4 advantage on second chance points. The pace is very slow, about 75 possessions for the entire game.

In the third segment, the Cats completed their comeback, and moved into the lead, 3 points, 39-36, before WVU hit a three pointer to pull back even with the Cats at 39-39 just before the under 8 TV timeout with about 7 minutes to play. After another tie at 41-41, the Cats scored 4 straight point to post their biggest lead of the night, 4 points, 45-41, on a run out basket by Patterson with 4:15 to play. Patterson will have one free throw to attempt the old fashioned 3 point play, which he does convert. The Cats take that 5 point lead to the bench at the under 4 TV timeout with about 3 minutes to play in the game.

The Cats close the deal while playing in the lead, and for the first time since 1996 win a preseason tournament championship by handing West Virginia their first loss of the season, 54-43. The Cats outscored the Mountaineers 38-17.

UK scored its 54 points in a total of 75 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 0.720 ppp. WEST VIRGINIA scored its 43 points on a total of 75 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.573 ppp.

Kentucky won a total offensive rebounding edge, 35-27. However, WEST VIRGINIA won the offensive glass with a 10-9 advantage on offensive rebounds, but Kentucky used their second chance possessions more efficiently than WVU, winning the second chance points battle 10-7 for the game.

WEST VIRGINIA had an offensive efficiency of 0.554 ppp on its 65 first chance possessions and 0.700 ppp for its 10 second chance possessions. UK had 0.667 ppp on its 66 first chance possessions and 1.111 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a good 34.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while WEST VIRGINIA was able to convert a weak 27.8% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit above average from the free throw line in this game, making 23-25 [92.0%]. WEST VIRGINIA made 10-17 [58.8%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 15-39 overall [38.5%] including 1-5 from long range [20.0%]. For WEST VIRGINIA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak, 15-49 [30.6%] but WEST VIRGINIA shot the ball extremely poorly from long range hitting 3-18 [16.7%].

Next Game On Schedule:

Wednesday night, December 3, 2008, the Cats will play Lamar at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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