BIG BLUE FANS FOR

BASKETBALL

2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

10

Cats Return To Rupp With Vegas Championship
Riding a 4-Game Winning Streak For
3-Games in 4 days

The Cats stumbled in their first game of the season, and the scheduling Gods played a further trick upon the Cats with a trip to North Carolina for game #2. For the third time in UK basketball history, these events produced an 0-2 start for a season. Since then, the Cats have reeled off 4 straight wins and have captured the Vegas pre-season tournament championship, the first such pre-season tournament championship for a Kentucky team since Rick Pitino stalked the Rupp sidelines in 1996.

Now the Cats return home for a long home stand of 7 games, plus the Cats' annual trip to Freedom Hall to entertain the Louisville contingent of the Big Blue Nation. The next 8 games are on friendly hardwoods. The first three games of this long home stand occur this week, 3 games in about 4 days [Wednesday night-Lamar; Saturday-Miami FL; and Sunday-Mississippi Valley State].

Six games into the 2008-09 season, this team continues to struggle in two important areas of the game: Turnovers and Rebounding.

Turnovers: The Cats committed 54 turnovers in its 2 games in Vegas last weekend. The turnover rate for those two games, both wins over BCS conference opponents, was 32.7%. That is one turnover for every 3 possessions over a two game span. On the season, the Cats' turnover rate has been 26.5%, or about one turnover for every 4 possessions. Some historical perspective might be helpful toward appreciating the significance of these turnover rates. Last year's Cats committed turnovers at the highest rate ever for any Kentucky team since the public reporting of turnover stats, about 21%. The average of all UK teams since 1972 has been 17.1%. For past coaches, the average turnover rates have been 15.5% for Rupp [one season only], 17.6% for Hall, 16.7% for Sutton, 16.3% for Pitino, and 17.2% for Tubby Smith. Gillispie's Cats must improve in this area if they want to make any significant splash in the SEC or the post season.

Rebounding: The rebounding numbers may be somewhat confusing because overall the Cats have out rebounded their opponents 233-180 in 6 games, and on its face, this might seem to suggest a dominance, an ownership, of the boards. However, this is not the case, and the truth of the matter about the Cats' rebounding thus far this season is revealed by the offensive rebounding rates. The reason for the wide disparity in total rebounds is the very low shooting percentage by opponents coupled with the large disparity in the number of shot attempts [thus misses] by opponents due to primarily to turnovers. On the offensive glass, the Cats have been out rebounded 60-72 in 6 games, that is an average of 10-12 per game, resulting in 64 second chance points by the 6 opponents to date. Unlike the Turnover situation, which has no silver lining to the cloudy message, there is a silver lining on the rebounding front. The Cats are grabbing a decent 34.3% of their misses as offensive rebounds while limiting opponents to only 29.3%. The NCAA D1 average offensive rebounding percentage the last 2 seasons has been about 33%. There is room for improvement here, but the current rates are improvements in this area from last season.

Defense Has Been Outstanding: The good news for this UK basketball team is in its defensive performance through 6 games. The following table provides the defensive efficiency for each of the Cats first 6 games.

There can be little doubt that the Cats laid a great big defensive egg in the first game of the year against VMI, but as these numbers indicate, the defensive effort since that game has been very strong, to outstanding. Even the 0.865 ppp allowed to UNC on their home court was an impressive performance, and UNC's performance is among their weakest of this young season. The current average defensive efficiency is 0.731 ppp. Since 1972, only one Cat team has posted a better defensive efficiency for an entire season, 1997 at 0.715 ppp, a truly great defensive team. Of course, this season is still young, and I would expect some slippage of this average as the overall schedule strength increases, and the Cats move into SEC play. However, these early results are certainly impressive, even after only 6 games, one of which was an absolute egg, and another on the road against the consensus #1 team in the land.

One last note about the defense. Last night on his call in show, Coach Gillispie provided a strong defense of his exclusive use of the man-to-man defense, and his refusal to consider using any zone defenses. He pointed out that the high turnover rate provided opponents easy opportunities to score, as do offensive rebounds and second chance opportunities. He then pointed out that when an opponent must play against our half court, man-to-man defense, they only average 19 points per game. I had never looked at the numbers in this way, and can't confirm or refute Coach Gillispie's representations. However, if that is true, 19 ppg when trying to score against UK's half court man-to-man defense, then it is clear how much the turnovers, and so-so offensive rebounding has contributed to this team's early season troubles.

For the third game in a row, Kentucky's next opponent enters the game with an unblemished win-loss record. Lamar is perfect in 5 games against D1 opposition. In those 5 games, LAMAR has averaged over 84 possessions per game while allowing opponents only 78 possessions. LAMAR has averaged 80 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.96 ppp. On the defensive end, LAMAR has allowed 59 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.754 ppp. LAMAR averages only 12 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 18 turnovers per game. On the glass, LAMAR secures about 41% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab about 26% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average almost 87 possessions per game and their opponents average 88 possessions. The Cats average about 75 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.864 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 67 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.764 ppp. The Cats average 23 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 17 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 34% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get about 29% of their misses.

The Kentucky Wildcats have played a more difficult schedule over the first 6 games than the LAMAR, and the NGE analysis indicates a game with about 84 possessions and a Kentucky win by 13 points, 77-64 over LAMAR. The pre-game magic number is 72 points.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie decides to stay with the starters he had used for five of the first 6 games of the year, Porter, Harris, Meeks, and Patterson, four juniors, and one sophomore.

The Cats get off to an uncharacteristic fast start in the first minute of play, hitting back to back 3 pointers, prompting a very early Lamar timeout with the Cats up 6-0. For the remainder of the segment, the Cats continued their early assault, taking a 10 point lead to the bench at the under 16 TV timeout, 15-5. In the second segment, there was a play stoppage due to an injury to Harris requiring his removal from the court on a stretcher. The Cats continued their assault upon Lamar, and led by 15 points, 25-10 at the under 12 TV timeout. Through about 8 minutes of play, the Cats only have committed one turnover, and are shooting 11-14 from the field.

Not often does a team have a night like this one has started, with a 39-15 lead at the under 8 TV timeout. The Cats have scored their points on only 22 possessions for an early offensive efficiency of 1.773 ppp. At the other end of the court, the Cat defense has again been smothering, allowing only 15 points on 30 possessions. The turnovers are 1 to 6 in favor of the Cats, and the only blemish is the offensive rebounding, and the Cats have none, but in all fairness, there have only been 5 total misses at the UK end of the floor.

The Cats continued doing those things that are making this game a blowout, and at the under 4 TV timeout the Cats lead 51-24 with free throws for Patterson out of the timeout. The teams finished the first half, as the Cats play became sloppy with 4 turnovers and poor shooting over the last 4 minutes to take a 26 point lead into the locker room, 56-30.

The pace of the first half was 86 possessions for the Cats and 98 possessions for LAMAR. In first half, UK had 43 possessions while LAMAR had 49. The Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards 4-10, and lost the second chance points 2-11. The Cats lost the total rebound battle 18-20. The Cats grabbed a poor 28.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LAMAR grabbed a strong 41.7% of their misses.

LAMAR had an offensive efficiency of 0.487 ppp on its 38 first chance possessions and 1.100 ppp for its 10 second chance possession. UK had 1.385 ppp on its 38 first chance possessions and 0.500 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions.

The free throw shooting in the first half was very strong for the Cats, 85.7% [12-14]. LAMAR also hit free throws well in the first half, 8-11 [72.7%] from the line during the first half. The Cats shot the ball very well throughout most of the first half before trailing off over the last 8 minutes. For the Cats, field goal shooting for UK was 20-32 overall [62.5%] and 4-8 [50.0%] from long range. For LAMAR, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was poor, 8-18 [44.4%], and LAMAR shot the ball poorly from long range, hitting 2-15 [13.3%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 100 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 44 points, while LAMAR needs 70 points. The Wildcats scored its 100 th point on a free throw by Harrellson with 1:59 to play and Kentucky leading 101-55. Kentucky finished the game to secure a victory, 105-61.

Second Half Summary:

The second half for the Cats started much the way the first half ended, poor shooting and too many turnovers, and Lamar trimmed the 26 halftime deficit to 22 points at the under 16 TV timeout, 59-37. However, whatever edge the team may have lost over the previous 12 minutes, they regained when they returned to play, quickly outscoring Lamar 7-0, prompting a Lamar timeout with 14:26 to play and the score 66-37. The timeout did not stop the onslaught by the Cats, and after the timeout, the Cats ran off another 8 unanswered points to extend the lead to 74-37, 37 points, prompting another Lamar timeout with 12:06 to play in the game.

The Cats extended the lead to over 40 points during the third segment and led by 41, 87-46 at the under 8 TV timeout. At the under 4 TV timeout the Cats lead by 43, 97-54. Josh Harrellson put the Cats over the century mark with 1:59 to play on a pair of free throws. The teams finished the game with a huge Cat blow-out, 103-61.

UK scored its 103 points in a total of 87 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.184 ppp. LAMAR scored its 61 points on a total of 92 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.663 ppp.

Kentucky won a total offensive rebounding edge, 38-33. However, LAMAR won the offensive glass with a 16-8 advantage, and Lamar used their second chance possessions more efficiently than the Cats, winning the second chance points battle 15-6 for the game.

LAMAR had an offensive efficiency of 0.605 ppp on its 76 first chance possessions and 0.938 ppp for its 16 second chance possessions. UK had 1.228 ppp on its 79 first chance possessions and 0.750 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a below average 32.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while LAMAR was able to convert a stronger 34.8% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit above average from the free throw line in this game, making 20-25 [80.0%]. LAMAR made 13-21 [61.9%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 38-59 overall [64.4%] including 7-14 from long range [50.0%]. For LAMAR, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak, 18-41 [43.9%] but LAMAR shot the ball extremely poorly from long range hitting 4-24 [16.7%].

Next Game On Schedule:

Saturday afternoon, December 6, 2008, the Cats will play Miami of Florida at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

To Installment Eleven

Go Back
To Installment Nine

Copyright 2008
SugarHill Communications of Kentucky
All Rights Reserved