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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

11

Cats Continue 4 Game Homestand Today
Entertain #21 Miami FL at Rupp

The Cats came out against LAMAE on Wednesday night and pinned LAMAR against the ropes early and often as the Cats put forth their strongest overall effort of this young season, winning 103-61. After opening the season 0-2 for only the third time since Adolph Rupp began calling Lexington home, the Cats have run off 5 straight wins. Today, they entertain the Miami Hurricanes at Rupp Arena and will attempt to extend this winning streak to 6 against the nation's #21 ranked team.

Reports indicate that the head on collision between Porter and Harris during the LAMAR game will keep Harris out of uniform today, but Porter should be available for duty, albiet carrying 10 stitches above his eye. Miami should be a full strength for this game since the NCAA has held that their starting point guards ejection from Miami's last game, earlier this week, was not sufficient for an additional 1 game suspension.

Seven games into the 2008-09 season, this team continues to struggle in two important areas of the game: Turnovers and Rebounding.

Turnovers: Against LAMAR on Wednesday night, the Cats did a much better job with respect to turnvoers for the majority of the game. The Cats only committed two turnovers in the first 16 minutes of the game, but the Cats committed 4 more during the last 4 minutes of the half, and 10 in the second half. Overall, the 16 turnovers was one for each 5.4 possessions, an improvement over the turnover rate for the first 6 games, but still too low for championship caliber play.

Rebounding: Again, the Cats won the battle of total rebounds, but LAMAR doubled the Cats on offensive rebounds, 16-8, and more than doubled the Cats on second chance points, 15-6. The Cats allowed LAMAR to grab 35% of their misses while the Cats managed to grab 32% of the Cat Misses. These numbers provide a great opportunity to this team to improve on the offensive and defensive ends of the court by improving their block out principles and wanting to get the loose balls more than their opponents.

Defense Has Been Outstanding: The good news for this UK basketball team is in its defensive performance through 6 games. The following table provides the defensive efficiency for each of the Cats first 6 games.

Miami FL enters the game with a 3-2 win-loss record against D1 opposition, with losses to Ohio State at home and Connecticut on a neutral court. MIAMI's best win this season has been a 10 point neutral court win over Southern Mississippi. In those 5 games, MIAMI FL has averaged over 83 possessions per game while allowing opponents only 81 possessions. MIAMI FL has averaged 72 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.864 ppp. On the defensive end, MIAMI FL has allowed 64 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.789 ppp. MIAMI FL averages only 13 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 12 turnovers per game. On the glass, MIAMI FL secures about 40% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab about 32% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average almost 87 possessions per game and their opponents average 88.5 possessions. The Cats average about 79 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.909 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 66 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.747 ppp. The Cats average 22 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 17 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get about 30% of their misses.

First Half Summary:

In the last game, Kentucky saw two starters go down on a single head on collision on the court. Harris is definitely out for today's game, and Porter's status is unclear, but he will dress and be available today. Coach Gillispie's starting lineup for the Miami game is Miller, Stevenson, Porter, Meeks, and Patterson, a freshman for Harris, three juniors, and one sophomore. This starting lineup has been used once prior to today by Coach Gillispie.

The Cats open the game with fair shooting but 4 turnovers before the first TV timeout and trail early 14-7 as Miami has made 3 of 5 three point attempts to start this game. In the second segment, the good shooting eye disappeared completely for the Cats, and the Miami lead extended to a maximum of 11 point, 22-11, and 9 points at the under 12 TV timeout, 22-13. The early pace of this game is mid to high 90s, and the Cats have already committed 5 turnovers in the first 8 minutes of play.

In the third segment, Miami extended their maximum lead to 12 points with a three pointer out of the timeout. The teams played even in this segment, with Miami leading by 9 points, 29-20 at the under 8 TV timeout. In the 4 th segment, Miami again established a new high lead, 13 points, and lead by 11 points, 35-24, at the under 4 TV timeout with free throws coming after the timeout. Out of the break, Miami made both free throws, and following a Meeks miss from 3 point range, Miami sank another three pointer of there own, to extend the lead to 16 points, 40-24, prompting a UK timeout. The timeout did no good for the Cats, and Miami took a 20 point lead to the locker room, 46-26.

The pace of the first half was 92 possessions for the Cats and 82 possessions for MIAMI FL. In first half, UK had 46 possessions while MIAMI FL had 41. The Kentucky won the battle of the offensive boards 9-4, but lost the second chance points 2-3. The Cats won the total rebound battle 21-20. The Cats grabbed a decent 36.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MIAMI FL grabbed a weak 25.0% of their misses.

MIAMI FL had an offensive efficiency of 1.162 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 0.750 ppp for its 4 second chance possession. UK had 0.649 ppp on its 37 first chance possessions and 0.222 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made their only 2 attempts, 2-2 [100.0%] and Miami made 7-9 [77.8%]. The Cats shot the ball very poorly throughout the first half making only 11-36 [30.6%] overall, and only 2-13 [15.4%] from outside the arc. For MIAMI FL, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was good, 8-18 [50.0%], and MIAMI FL shot the ball very well from long range, hitting 7-13 [53.8%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 83 rd point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 57 points, while MIAMI FL needs 37 points. Miami scored its 83 rd point on ___________________ by ______________ with m:ss to play and Miami leading 83-71. Miami finished the game to secure a victory, xx-zz.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats opened the second half with a turnover, and Miami moved out to 21 points up before the Cats trimmed into the lead for the first time today, cutting it to 17 points, 49-32 at the under 16 TV timeout. Porter fouled out of the game during this initial segment of the second half. In the second segment, the Cats continued to cut into Miami's huge lead, once at 21 points. At the end of the second segment, the Cats trail by 11 points, 49-38. In the third segment, the Cats cut the lead into single digits, 9 points, for the first time since Miami led 30-21 in the first half.

Determined plays by Stevenson and Patterson gave the Cats a third chance possession, and Patterson made Miami pay with a 15 foot jumper. Then Liggins took it coast to coast t cut the lead to 6 points, 56-50 with 5:59 to play, Miami timeout. The Cats cut it to 4 points, 56-52 following a Miami turnover, but Miami stopped the run with 4 points of their own, going back out by 8 points, 60-52, prompting a UK timeout with 3:49 to play in the game. During the last 3: 49, Miami moved back to a 9 point lead, 65-56, and then the Cats began to send Miami to the line. Miami obliged the Cats with multiple free throw misses, but the Cats could only close back to 4 points, with 24 seconds to play, and Miami finally begins hitting their free throws and close the win out by 6 points, 73-67.

UK scored its 67 points in a total of 93 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of a pitiful 0.720 ppp. MIAMI FL scored its 73 points on a total of 82 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.890 ppp.

Kentucky won a total rebounding edge, 45-35, and the Cats won the offensive glass with a 18-8 advantage. Kentucky converted their 18 second chance into only 7 points while Miami converted its 8 second chances into a weak 4 points.

MIAMI FL had an offensive efficiency of 0.932 ppp on its 74 first chance possessions and 0.500 ppp for its 8 second chance possessions. UK had 0.800 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 0.389 ppp on its 18 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed strong 40.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MIAMI FL was able to convert weak 22.9% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds.

UK hit above average from the free throw line in this game, making 15-18 [83.3%], and the third miss was intentional at the end of the game that produced another offensive rebound and scoring opportunity in the final seconds of the game. MIAMI FL made 19-31 [61.3%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 25-70 overall [35.7%] including a dismal 2-23 from long range [8.7%]. For MIAMI FL, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak, 15-33 [45.5%] but MIAMI FL shot the ball extremely well from long range hitting 8-19 [42.1%] providing the true margin of victory for Miami..

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 9 point Cat win [75-66], and the outcome was almost reversed, 67-73. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.893 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 0.720 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.767 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.890 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “E” and the defensive “grade” is D- as shown below.

Next Game On Schedule:

Sunday afternoon, December 7, 2008, the Cats will play Mississippi Valley State at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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