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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

12

Cats Continue 4 Game Home Stand Today
After Poorest Offensive Performance of his Season

The Cats came out against MIAMI FL on Saturday night in a Jeckyl and Hyde impersonation as compared to the way the team started against LAMAR just 3 days earlier. This is very perplexing for the coaches, players and fans. In the first half against MIAMI FL, the Cats shot the ball poorly, and fell behind by 20 points at the half, 46-26, creating a nearly impossible hole from which they must dig out in one more half of a basketball game. The second half effort was a little better than the 30% first half shooting, as the Cats shot a “red hot” 40%, but that was not enough to overcome the 20 point deficit. The Cats did cut the lead to 4 points on more than one occasion, and down the stretch could get no closer than 5 points, and the final margin was 6 points.

MIAMI's defensive game plan was to force the Cats to demonstrate an ability to knock down the outside shot, and when the early shooting was clearly off the mark, MIAMI found no need to adjust that plan, and packed their 2-3 zone in even tighter, and the Cats play became increasingly tighter. Much of the “comeback” was fueled more by MIAMI's poor free throw shooting down the stretch than anything affirmative that the Cats were able to accomplish either offensively or defensively in the second half.

Eight games into the 2008-09 season, this team continues to struggle in two important areas of the game: Turnovers and Rebounding. However, for the record, these were not problem areas in the loss to MIAMI on Saturday because the Cats only committed 14 turnovers in 93 possessions, and grabbed a strong 40% of their misses, which were considerable, to get 16 offensive rebounds and second chance opportunities. However, the Cats did a pitiful job with their second chance opportunities, converting those 16 possessions into only six, second chance points.

MISS. VALLEY ST. enters the game with a winless 0-9 record against D1 opposition. In those 9 games, MISS. VALLEY ST. has averaged 80 possessions per game while allowing opponents only 81 possessions. MISS. VALLEY ST. has averaged 54 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0..771 ppp. On the defensive end, MISS. VALLEY ST. has allowed 82 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 1.156 ppp. MISS. VALLEY ST. averages about 17 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 15 turnovers per game. On the glass, MISS. VALLEY ST. secures about 25% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab about 35% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average almost 88 possessions per game and their opponents average 87.5 possessions. The Cats average about 77.6 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.884 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 67 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.766 ppp. The Cats average 21 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 16 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 36% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get about 29% of their misses.

First Half Summary:

In the last game, Kentucky inserted Miller into the starting lineup for ailing Harris. Tonight, Coach Gillispie replaces Miller with Galloway, who is getting his first starting assignment as a Wildcat, and enters this game with only 29 total minutes all season. Galloway, Stevenson, Porter, Meeks, and Patterson, A JUCO Transfer sophomore, three juniors, and one sophomore. This is the third different starting lineup in the first 9 games.

The Cats open the game hitting 5 of 9 shots, with 3 offensive rebounds and 4 second chance points, and two turnovers. At the under 16 TV timeout the Cats led 12-7 in a game that has a very early pace of about 100 possessions. MVSU has hit on one of two from long range in the early going. However, that early torrid pace became as a snail with only 4 possessions for each team in the second segment. In that segment, the Cats were outscored 4-6 as MVSU trimmed the early 9 point, 16-7 lead to 3 points, 16-13 at the under 12 TV timeout. The pace is now between 70 and 75 possessions, which is more consistent with MVSU's preferences.

In the third game segment, the Cats only managed to extend their tenuous 3 point lead to 4 points, 25-21, and a pair of three pointers by walk-on Slone have provided a lethargic group of Wildcats the only real spark of the day. This is two games in a row that the Cats have simply not passed well in a first half. In the 4 th segment, MVSU continues to hang tough with the Cats, hitting 3 of their 5 shots, and while the Cats hit 3 or their 4 shots, the teams played on even terms, 32-28 at the under 4 TV timeout with 2:17 to play in the half. Out of the break, the Cats ran off a quick 7 points in 47 seconds to prompt a MVSU timeout with 1:30 to play, with Cats up by their largest margin, 11 points, 39-28. However, the Cats would not score again in the half, and MVSU hit another 3 pointer on the last shot of the half to cut the halftime lead to 8 points, 39-31.

The pace of the first half was 72 possessions for the Cats and 74 possessions for MISS. VALLEY ST.. In first half, UK had 36 possessions while MISS. VALLEY ST. had 37. The Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards 6-3, but won the second chance points 4-3. The Cats won the total rebound battle 16-15. The Cats grabbed an anemic 25.0% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MISS. VALLEY ST. grabbed a weak 31.6.0% of their misses.

MISS. VALLEY ST. had an offensive efficiency of 0.875 ppp on its 31 first chance possessions and 0.500 ppp for its 6 second chance possession. UK had 1.061 ppp on its 33 first chance possessions and 1.333 ppp on its 3 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats made their 8-10 [80.0%] and MISS. VALLEY ST. made 4-4 [100.0%]. The Cats shot the ball well throughout the first half making only 13-25 [52.8%] overall, and a strong 5-10 [50.0%] from outside the arc. For MISS. VALLEY ST., their field goal shooting from inside the arc was poor, 6-21 [28.6%], and MISS. VALLEY ST. shot the ball very well from long range, hitting 5-9 [55.6%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 75 th point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 36 points, while MISS. VALLEY ST. needs 44 points. MISS. VALLEY ST. scored its 75 th point on free throws by Slone with 5:42 to play and Kentucky leading 75-49. MISS. VALLEY ST. finished the game to secure a victory, 88-65.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats started the second half with a turnover, followed by a three pointer to take their lead out to match the largest of the game, 11 points, 42-31, but MVSU scored the next 5 points to cut the lead back to only 6 points. The Cats finished the first segment with 6 quick points of their own, to establish a new largest lead of the game, 12 points, prompting a MVSU timeout with 16:27 to play. The Cats exchange a basket for a MVSU free throw for a 13 point lead, 50-37 at the under 16 TV timeout.

In the second segment, the Cats finally broke the game open and began to pull away from the pesky MVSU, out scoring the visitors 14-5 to establish a 19 point lead at the under 12 TV timeout. In the third segment, the Cats outscored MVSU 9-7 to extend the lead to 24 points at the under 8 TV timeout. The Cats play over the last 8 minutes continued the very sloppy, and inefficient play of the third segment, and the teams played on essentially even terms to the end, with the Cats winning by 23 points, 88-65.

UK scored its 88 points in a total of 81 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of a pitiful 1.086 ppp. MISS. VALLEY ST. scored its 65 points on a total of 86 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.756 ppp.

Kentucky won a total rebounding edge, 40-34, but the Cats lost on the offensive glass 15-8. Kentucky converted their 8 second chance into only 9 points while MISS. VALLEY ST. converted its 15 second chances into a weak 14 points.

MISS. VALLEY ST. had an offensive efficiency of 0.718 ppp on its 71 first chance possessions and 0.933 ppp for its 15 second chance possessions. UK had 1.082 ppp on its 73 first chance possessions and 1.125 ppp on its 8 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a weak 29.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds while MISS. VALLEY ST. was able to a slightly stronger 31.9% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 5.8 possessions and forced MVSU into one turnover in every 6.6 possessions.

UK hit above average from the free throw line in this game, making 27-36 [75.0%]. MISS. VALLEY ST. made 10-13 [76.9%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 27-50 overall [54.0%] including a decent 7-18 from long range [38.9%]. For MISS. VALLEY ST., their field goal shooting from inside the arc was a weak, 14-46 [30.4%] but MISS. VALLEY ST. shot the ball well from long range hitting 9-22 [40.9%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 52 point Cat win [96-44], and the outcome was almost reversed, 88-65. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.143 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 1.086 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.524 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.756 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “D+” and the defensive “grade” is “E” as shown below.

http://bigbluefans4uk.com/ 2008-09DataandWritings /2008-09_DD_Predictions /Performance_Grades/ 09_Grades_MissValSt.jpg

Next Game On Schedule:

Saturday afternoon, December 13, 2008, the Cats will play Indiana at Rupp Arena.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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