07-1 Preseason Forecast

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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

Cats Host Hoosiers For Next Installment of a Classic Series
But The Tables Have Turned

Cats and Hoosiers!

Indiana v Kentucky!

Blue v Red!

One of the really great rivalries among the giants of the game will be renewed on Saturday afternoon at Rupp Arena. This series began in 1925, and the teams played four times before Coach Rupp arrived, with Indiana claiming all four games. In the Post Rupp era, the Cats hold a 28-19 series lead. Coach Rupp resumed the series in 1941 to 1945, and after splitting the 4 game series, the teams did not play again until 1966 in the UKIT, a UK victory, and then became an annual event in 1971, another UK victory, and then a loss in Rupp’s last season on the bench. Coach Rupp’s final record in this series was 5-3.

Coach Hall’s team lost its first 4 of the December tradition before breaking through to hand Coach Knight’s Hoosiers their only loss of the 1975 season in the Mideast Regional Finals in Dayton. Coach Hall’s Cats would face the Hoosiers 11 more times thereafter, with the Cats winning 7, leaving Coach Hall with an overall 8-8 record in the series, including a 2-1 record in NCAA tournament games. Coach Sutton splits 2-2 in his 4 seasons, and Rick Pitino won 5 and lost 3 in his 8 years, and Tubby Smith won 8 of 10 games.

Coach Gillispie lost his first encounter with the Hoosiers last season, and the Cats have lost 2 of the last 3 encounters by huge margins, 26 points in 2006 and 19 points in 2008. At the time that these teams played last season, the Cats’ fortunes appeared headed in the wrong direction while the Hoosiers were poised for a serious run at national honors again in March. However, late last season the Cats found their souls and the wheels came off the Hurrying Hoosiers Express. Since that time, the Cats are in year two of a serious rebuilding project, and the Indiana program is bumping on its deepest ever bottom, looking for a path that will lead them back toward the top, but they don’t expect to climb very far out of the depths during the 2009 season.

Rupp 5 3
Hall 8 8
Sutton 2 2
Pitino 5 3
Smith 8 2
Gillispie 0 1

It is time for Coach Gillispie to accomplish two things. First, it is time to deliver that long overdue, and much anticipated payback to the Hoosiers, and second, it is time for Coach Gillispie to eliminate the distinction of the only UK Coach since 1930 to have a losing record against the Hoosiers.

This will be the fourth game of a four game home stand for the Cats. They followed their Jekyll and Hyde performances against Lamar and Miami with a dose of mediocrity against Mississippi Valley State. It seems difficult to know in advance which face the current Cats will present when a new game occurs. Will they be fierce? Will the be Weak? Will they yield to the temptation to coast against lesser foes?

For the first 9 games the Cats have committed 31, 28, 25, 23, 19, 16, 14, 14, and 12 turnovers. The pair of 14's and the 16 in the tally are for the last 3 games, and those three games dropped the season average from about 23 per game to the current 20.1 per game. The average is still too high, but the Cats can make great strides offensively if they continue the possible trend established by the last 3 games. The turnover rate for the last 3 games has been one turnover for every 5.9 possessions, which is slightly above the NCAA D1 average turnover rate of 5.6.

Nine games into the 2008-09 season, this team continues to struggle with turnovers, …. and Rebounding to a lesser extent.

INDIANA enters the game with a 4-4 record against D1 opposition. In those 8 games, INDIANA has averaged 81.6 possessions per game while allowing opponents 83.8 possessions. INDIANA has averaged 64 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.787 ppp. On the defensive end, INDIANA has allowed 71 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.842 ppp. INDIANA averages about 20 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 16 turnovers per game. On the glass, INDIANA secures about 34% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab about 36% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average almost 87 possessions per game and their opponents average 87.5 possessions. The Cats average about 78.8 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.904 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 67 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.763 ppp. The Cats average 20 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 16 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get about 30% of their misses.

The Kentucky Wildcats have played an easier schedule over the first 8 and 9 games than the INDIANA, and the NGE analysis indicates a game with about 85 possessions and a Kentucky win by 18 points, 79-61 over INDIANA. This corresponds to an offensive efficiency of 0.919 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.718 for a game NGE of 0.20 ppp. The pre-game magic number is 71 points.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie again goes with the usual starting four: Porter, Meeks, Patterson, Stevenson, and today he starts Galloway for the second straight game in the Harris slot.

The Cats' Galloway took the opening tap directly to the hoop for a basket, and the Cats exploded from there to an early 8-0 lead forcing IU to take a timeout with just over 17 minutes to play in the first half, and Galloway set to get 2 free throws after the break. After the timeout, Galloway missed both, and the Cats only managed 2 more points before the under 16 TV timeout, 10-0. In the second segment, IU finally got onto the boards with a second chance basket, but the Cats continued to pull away, leading by 18 points, 22-4 with just over 12 minutes to go in the half and the second IU timeout. At the under 12 TV timeout the Cats lead by 20 points, 24-4. The early pace is about 85 to 95 possessions.

The rout continued to a 32-6 lead before Indiana hit a 30+ foot three pointer to beat the shot clock, and after a pro-longed third segment, the Cats lead 32-9 at the under 8 TV timeout with just over 6 minutes to go before halftime. In the abbreviated fourth segment, the Hoosiers outscored the Cats for the first time today in a complete game segment, and trimmed the lead to 21 points, 34-13 at the under 4 TV timeout. After scoring 32 points in the first 14 minutes of play, the Cats could only manage to add 4 more points to their total over the next 5+ minutes. Coach Gillispie called at timeout with 55 seconds to go to set a play. However, the Cats fail to get a good shot or score another point in the first half, and take a commanding 23 point lead, 36-13, to the locker room.

The pace of the first half was 80 possessions for the Cats and 82 possessions for INDIANA. In first half, UK had 40 possessions while INDIANA had 41. The Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards 6-4, but won the second chance points 7-2. The Cats won the total rebound battle 18-15. The Cats grabbed a weak 30.8% of its misses as offensive rebounds while INDIANA grabbed an equally weak 30.0% of their misses.

INDIANA had an offensive efficiency of 0.314 ppp on its 35 first chance possessions and 0.333 ppp for its 6 second chance possession. UK had 0.806 ppp on its 36 first chance possessions and 1.750 ppp on its 4 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats missed their only 2 attampts, and IU did not reach the line during the first half. The Cats shot the ball well throughout the first half making 16-28 [57.1%] overall, and a strong 4-10 [40.0%] from outside the arc. For INDIANA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was poor, 5-17 [29.4%], and INDIANA shot the ball very poorly from long range, hitting 1-9 [11.1%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 61 st point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 25 points, while INDIANA needs 48 points. KENTUCKY scored its 61 ST point on basket by Stevenson with 2:55 to play and Kentucky leading 62-42. KENTUCKY finished the game to secure a victory, 72-54.

Second Half Summary:

The Cats open the second half as flat they have opened many games this season, and Indiana outscores the Cats in the first segment of the half 8-4 to trim the lead back to 19 points, 40-21 at the under 16 TV timeout. In the second segment, the Cats poor play continues for the 4 th consecutive game segment, and they only scored 1 point to Indiana's 3 points, as the Hoosiers trimmed the lead to 17 points, 41-24 at the under 12 TV timeout. The Cats have now played over 14 minutes straight and have only scored 9 points, while allowing IU to score 18 points. In the third segment, the Catts at least stopped the Indiana run, and eased the lead by out to 19 points at the under 8 TV timeout, 49-30. The pace of this game has slowed tremendously, and is not in the 75 to 80 range.

In the fourth segment of the second half, the Cats' play continued to be ragged and disorganized, and IU cut the lead to 16 points, 52-36, after back to back turnovers, and Coach Gillispie called a timeout. The Cats have committed 20 turnovers so far in this game, one for every 3.4 possessions, which is worse than they pitiful season average. At the under 4 TV timeout the Cats continue to lead, now by 17, 56-39. The Cats closed the deal in the final segment, and won by 18 points, 72-54.

UK scored its 72 points in a total of 86 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of a pitiful 0.837 ppp. INDIANA scored its 54 points on a total of 86 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.628 ppp.

Kentucky won a total rebounding edge, 38-30, but the Cats lost on the offensive glass 10-11. Kentucky converted their 10 second chance into 11 points while INDIANA converted its 11 second chances into a weak 6 points.

INDIANA had an offensive efficiency of 0.640 ppp on its 75 first chance possessions and 0.545 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had 0.803 ppp on its 76 first chance possessions and 1.100 ppp on its 10 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed an average 34.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while INDIANA was able to a grab only a weak 28.2% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 3.7 possessions and forced Indiana into one turnover in every 4.3 possessions.

UK hit about average from the free throw line in this game, making 16-22 [72.7%]. INDIANA made 8-17 [47.1%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 26-52 overall [50.0%] including a poor 4-15 from long range [26.7%]. For INDIANA, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was fair, 17-37 [45.9%] but INDIANA shot the ball poorly from long range hitting 4-20 [20.0%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 18 point Cat win [79-61], and the outcome was a similar 72-54. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 0.919 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 0.837 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.718ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.628 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “D+” and the defensive “grade” is “B-” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance_Grades/10_Grades_Ind.jpg[/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Saturday afternoon, December 20, 2008, the Cats will play Appalachian State at Freedom Hall in Louisville.

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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