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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

14

Cats Host Appalachian State in Annual Freedom Hall Game

Every year for as long as I am able to recall, the Kentucky Wildcats have played one of their “home” games at Louisville's Freedom Hall to give fans who do not have season tickets to the games at Rupp an opportunity to see a game, especially those loyal fans that reside in and around the greater Louisville area. This year's opponent for this annual event is Appalachian State. Last year's game was a rare unhappy ending, a loss to UAB, and the Cats are resolved to not disappoint the Freedom Hall crowd or the Big Blue Nation for a second year in a row.

Technically, this game occurs at a “neutral” court venue, but in reality Freedom Hall serves as an alternate home venue. Therefore, this will be the fifth game at “home” in a eight game sequence that culminates in the Cats' return to this very same floor in about 2 weeks as the visitor to take on the Louisville Cards.

Ten games into the 2008-09 season, this team continues to struggle with turnovers, and to a lesser extent, rebounding.

APPALACHIAN STATE enters the game with a 4-3 record against D1 opposition. In those 7 games, APPALACHIAN STATE has averaged 93.9 possessions per game while allowing opponents 91.2 possessions. APPALACHIAN STATE has averaged 80.6 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.858 ppp. On the defensive end, APPALACHIAN STATE has allowed 82.7 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.907 ppp. APPALACHIAN STATE averages about 20 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 14 turnovers per game. On the glass, APPALACHIAN STATE secures about 39% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab just under 30% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 87 possessions per game and their opponents average 87.3 possessions. The Cats average about 78.1 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.897 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 65.5 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.750 ppp. The Cats average 20 ½ turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 16 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 35.4% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 30% of their misses.

The Kentucky Wildcats have played a harder schedule over the first 10 and 7 games than APPALACHIAN STATE, and the NGE analysis indicates a game with about 90 possessions and a Kentucky win by 30 points, 92-62 over APPALACHIAN STATE. This corresponds to an offensive efficiency of 1.034 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.681 for a game NGE of 0.35 ppp. The pre-game magic number is 78 points.

Game Summary:

Coach Gillispie again goes with the usual starting four: Porter, Meeks, Patterson, Stevenson, and again Coach Gillispie starts Galloway for the third straight game in the Harris slot.

Due to circumstances beyond my control, I could not write contemporaneously during the game, and can only provide a game-ending summary. The Cats won this game 93-69.

UK scored its 93 points in a total of 87 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.057 ppp. APPALACHIAN STATE scored its 69 points on a total of 95 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.726 ppp.

Kentucky lost the total rebounding battle, 34-42, 38-30, and the Cats lost on the offensive glass 9-18. Kentucky converted their 9 second chance into 6 points while APPALACHIAN STATE converted its 18 second chances into a strong 16 points.

APPALACHIAN STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.688 ppp on its 77 first chance possessions and 0.889 ppp for its 18 second chance possessions. UK had 1.115 ppp on its 79 first chance possessions and 0.667 ppp on its 9 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a weak 27.3% of its misses as offensive rebounds while APPALACHIAN STATE was able to a powerful 41.9% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 5.8 possessions and forced APPALACHIAN STATE into one turnover in every 5.3 possessions.

UK was outstanding from the free throw line in this game, making 19-20 [95.0%]. APPALACHIAN STATE made 21-29 [72.4%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 31-63 overall [49.2%] including a strong 12-23 from long range [52.2%]. For APPALACHIAN STATE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was fair, 15-46 [32.6%] but APPALACHIAN STATE shot the ball better from long range hitting 6-18 [33.3%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 30 point Cat win [92-62], and the outcome was a similar 93-69. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.034 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 1.069 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.681ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.726 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “B-” and the defensive “grade” is “D+” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance_Grades/11_Grades_AppalSt@FH.jpg [/img]

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Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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