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2008-09 Season Analytical Writings

Cats Return To Rupp For Another Course of Cupcake
Tennessee State Is On The Menu Tonight

December 22, 2008 is just 3 days before Christmas, and tonight the Cats return to Rupp Arena for another pre-holiday cupcake, and tonight's cupcake bears the name, Tennessee State. This is not the first holiday cupcake for these Cats this season, as their pre-season diet has included a steady supply of a wide variety of cupcakes, and it won't be the Cats' last such meal before they must confront the reality of legitimate basketball against the University of Louisville and the entire SEC slate of games.

Eleven games into the 2008-09 season, this team continues to struggle with turnovers, and to a lesser extent, rebounding.

TENNESSEE STATE enters the game with an overall record of 3-6, but only 2-5 against D1 oppositions, having split two games against non-D1 opponents Cumberland University [Loss] and Miles [Win]. In those seven D1 games, TENNESSEE STATE has averaged 87.6 possessions per game while allowing opponents 86.9 possessions. TENNESSEE STATE has averaged 69.3 points per game, which is an offensive efficiency of 0.791 ppp. On the defensive end, TENNESSEE STATE has allowed 74.9 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.861 ppp. TENNESSEE STATE averages about 16.4 turnovers per game, while their defense forces opponents into about 13.3 turnovers per game. On the glass, TENNESSEE STATE secures about 36% of its own misses as offensive rebounds, and allows its opponents to grab just over 33% of their misses as offensive rebounds.

The Cats now average about 87.1 possessions per game and their opponents average 88.1 possessions. The Cats average about 79.5 ppg, with an offensive efficiency of 0.912 ppp. On the defensive end, the Cats' opponents average about 65.8 ppg, for a defensive efficiency of 0.747 ppp. The Cats average 20 turnovers per game, and force opponents into about 16.5 turnovers per game. On the glass, the Cats have been able to grab about 34.6% of its misses as offensive rebounds, while they only allow opponents to get just under 30.8% of their misses.

The Kentucky Wildcats have played a harder schedule over the first 11 and 7 games than TENNESSEE STATE, and the NGE analysis indicates a game with about 87 possessions and a Kentucky win by 45 points, 95-50 over TENNESSEE STATE. This corresponds to an offensive efficiency of 1.092 ppp and a defensive efficiency of 0.568 for a game NGE of 0.52 ppp. The pre-game magic number is 74 points.

First Half Summary:

Coach Gillispie again goes with the usual starting four: Porter, Meeks, Patterson, Stevenson, and again Coach Gillispie starts Galloway for the third straight game in the Harris slot.

For the second game in a row, I am unable to provide real time analysis of the game play. Tonight, a friend provided a ticket to the game, and I was all too happy to take advantage of the opportunity.

The pace of the first half was 90 possessions for the Cats and 94 possessions for TENNESSEE STATE. In first half, UK had 45 possessions while TENNESSEE STATE had 47. The Kentucky lost the battle of the offensive boards 9-7, but won the second chance points 12-10. The Cats won the total rebound battle 24-15.

TENNESSEE STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0..511 ppp on its 47 first half possessions and 1.111 ppp for its 9 second chance possession. UK had 1.311 ppp on its 45 first half possessions and 1.71 ppp on its 7 second chance possessions.

From the line in the first half, the Cats were perfect on 6 attempts, and TSU made 5-7 free throws [71%]. The Cats shot the ball well throughout the first half making 23-36 [65%] overall, and a strong 7-14 [50.0%] from outside the arc. For TENNESSEE STATE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was poor, 8-26 [32.5%], and TENNESSEE STATE shot the ball very poorly from long range, hitting 1-8 [12.5%].

Halftime Magic Number Check-Up:

MAGIC NUMBER Tonight: First team to score its 101 st point will win tonight. To reach that score, Kentucky needs 42 points, while TENNESSEE STATE needs 77 points. KENTUCKY scored its 101 ST point on a three pointer and the last score of the game, to put the Cats up 102-58, the final score of the game.

Second Half Summary:

UK scored its 102 points in a total of 94 possessions for the game for an offensive efficiency of 1.085 ppp. TENNESSEE STATE scored its 58 points on a total of 89 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 0.652 ppp.

Kentucky won the total rebounding battle, 49-27, and the Cats won on the offensive glass 17-11. Kentucky converted their 17 second chance into 29 points while TENNESSEE STATE converted its 11 second chances into a strong 12 points.

TENNESSEE STATE had an offensive efficiency of 0.590 ppp on its 78 first chance possessions and 1.091 ppp for its 11 second chance possessions. UK had 0.948 ppp on its 77 first chance possessions and 1.706 ppp on its 17 second chance possessions. With respect to the offensive rebounding, UK grabbed a powerful 51.5% of its misses as offensive rebounds while TENNESSEE STATE was able to get a weak 25.6% of its misses into bonus possessions with offensive rebounds. The Cats committed one turnover for every 5.9 possessions and forced TENNESSEE STATE into one turnover in every 4.7 possessions.

UK was outstanding from the free throw line in this game, making 12-13 [92.3%]. TENNESSEE STATE made 16-23 [69.6%] for the game. Field goal shooting for UK was 40-72 overall [55.6%] including a strong 10-25 from long range [40.0%]. For TENNESSEE STATE, their field goal shooting from inside the arc was fair, 15-45 [33.3%] but TENNESSEE STATE shot the ball better from long range hitting 4-14 [28.6%].

Prior to the game, the NGE analysis predicted a 45 point Cat win [95-50], and the outcome was a similar 102-58. The NGE analysis predicted an offensive efficiency of 1.092 ppp and the actual offensive efficiency was only 1.085 ppp. The NGE analysis also predicted a defensive efficiency of 0.568 ppp, and the actual defensive efficiency was 0.652 ppp. Based on the variance from predicted values, the offensive “grade” is “C” and the defensive “grade” is “D+” as shown below.

[img]http://bigbluefans4uk.com/2008-09DataandWritings/2008-09_DD_Predictions/Performance_Grades/12_Grades_TNST.jpg [/img]

Next Game On Schedule:

Saturday afternoon, Saturday 27, 2008, the Cats will play Florida Atlantic at Rupp Arena

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

Submitted by Richard Cheeks

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